Adam Thielen 2020 Fantasy Value: A League Winner?
Undrafted out of Minnesota State, Adam Thielen has been under the radar his whole career. Despite two pro bowl seasons, Thielen doesn’t get the same recognition as his peers. Thielen worked his way up from special teams player to WR1. 2019 saw Thielen deal with a nagging hamstring injury that kept him out of a good chunk of the regular season. With Gary Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator, Thielen looks to get back to that 2018 form. Let’s take a look at how he can get there.
Target Share
Thielen will no longer have to battle Stefon Diggs for targets as a result of Diggs being traded to Buffalo. Diggs has had at least 94 targets in each of the last four years including 149 in 2018. According to 4for4.com, the WR1 has been targeted 159.6 times in the last 5 Gary Kubiak offenses which means Thielen will see the ball thrown his way more than predicted. Also, with young future stars Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith Jr. still trying to familiarize themselves with the offense, Thielen won’t have as much competition as other WR1’s. What will he do with all those targets? Let’s take a look below.
Efficiency
Despite only playing in 10 games last season, Thielen managed to score six touchdowns. In 2018, Thielen’s last full season he had the highest catch rate of any receiver with at least 150 targets. Likewise, in that the same year Thielen had a record eight straight 100-yard games. As we are talking about efficiency I should mention Thielen was third among WR’s in fantasy points per target last year. With his combination of targets, receptions and touchdowns he is a PPR owners dream. Thielen should expect to see some bulk work in the slot where he is most efficient. With Diggs gone, Thielen will also have an opportunity to show what he can do on the outside. Leading me to talk about my next point…
The Kirk Cousins Effect
I recently wrote an article which included some info about Kirk Cousins efficiency as a deep ball passer. Cousins deep ball passer rating of 119.7 last year and was one of only two quarterbacks with at least six completions of 50+ yards. Cousins ability to put the ball where it needs to be will benefit Thielen when he lines up outside. Thielen’s metrics suggest that he is an average athlete. He makes up for this with precise route running and great hands. Pair that with Cousins accuracy and 2020 could be Thielen’s best year yet.
League Winner
Thielen is currently being drafted in the third round as the 12th receiver in PPR leagues. Let’s take a look at how Thielen stacks up. First, DeAndre Hopkins may not see the same volume in Arizona. Allen Robinson’s QB’s are Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky if that tells you anything. AJ Brown is in a run heavy offense. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are great, but they benefited from a gun slinger who didn’t mind throwing interceptions. I could make the argument that on targets alone, Thielen will finish in the top five. Consistent production and efficiency, a clear path to targets, lack of a threat for the WR1 spot all point to Adam Thielen outscoring his fantasy predictions in 2020 and becoming a great value at a small price tag.
