Ronald Jones 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook
My journey on this one started with a question – how many touches can we expect from the rookie running backs in year one? Surely there’s a correlation between draft position and volume.
So I looked at all running backs drafted in the first two rounds from 2010 to 2019 – that’s a sample of 44. And then I looked at their year one rush count and total touches.
Here’s where I saw a rabbit hole and dived in – I will come back to the 2020 rookie RBs and whether there’s anything predictive to be taken from draft position – we’ll save that for another rabbit hole on another day.
The stat you want to know – of the 44 Running Backs drafted in the first two rounds between 2010 and 2019, only 13 of them failed to get 100 carries in their first year. 10 of those went on to do nothing for your fantasy team. That leaves three.
See Where Ronald Jones Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Rankings – Here!
One of those three was Carlos Hyde – he got 83 carries and was very much stuck behind Frank Gore on the roster (i.e. limited opportunity in year one). He also went on to a breakout year two before suffering an injury. That leaves two.
If a running back drafted in the first two rounds doesn’t get 100 carries in the first year then, unless they’re stuck behind another workhorse back, we’re in trouble.
For those doing the math, that leaves two. Two backs who are still early in their careers and that we aren’t yet able to confirm if they follow that trend. Those two backs are Rashaad Penny and Ronald Jones.
We should dig in to Penny another day too, except to say he did get 85 carries (the most out of any of the 13) and there’s a solid argument that he fits in the ‘limited opportunity’ category behind Chris Carson.
How concerning was Ronald Jones’ first year?
Well he only got 23 carries. There’s only three of our ‘damned 13’ that were lower than that: Christine Michael, Shane Vereen and Isaiah Pead.
Does he fall foul of the opportunity problem? Was he stuck behind a workhorse back who was so good that Jones couldn’t get on the field? Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers….at a mighty 3.7 and 3.2 Yards per Carry.
Was it coaching? Well it was the same offensive coaching staff who gave a solid workload to the backs the previous two years – doesn’t look like a scheme issue.
Let’s stop here shall we. The stats tell us the story. Jones got the fourth worst rookie carry totals from a running back drafted in the first two rounds since 2010, and he did not have a world-class depth chart to fight his way through. So he’s doomed, never going to be good. Thanks for reading, goodnight.
Except his year two numbers were much, much better. 172 carries, 4.2 yards-per-carry, 13th in the league in YAC/attempt (Yards After Contact), and 4th in attempts per broken tackles. Now THAT sounds like a running back drafted in the first two rounds. THAT sounds like something we can believe in. But now I don’t know what to believe – year one history says run away from this guy, year two stats say don’t worry about it!
Looks like we need to dive in deeper.
Tampa Bay circ. 2019 – a three-headed monster
To the uninitiated, it looks like Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber shared the workload and Dare Ogunbowale was an occassional pest that vultured a couple of touchdowns. However, when you delve in to the snap counts, the playing time is much closer to an even three-way split.
Towards the end of the year, Jones did start to take an increased workload. That mostly came from Barber with Ogunbowale’s snap share remaining largely unaffected.
Ogunbowale doesn’t carry the ball, so he’s there for passing-down work. We’ve all heard the story of Jones being benched last season for flunking his pass-blocking assignment and he didn’t force Ogunbowale off the field at the end of the year, so we shouldn’t think that’s going to change all of a sudden – regardless of who else is in this backfield, that’s around 30-percent of snaps and 40-50 targets that are not going to go Jones’ way.
I’m sure he has. And there’s a chance that it makes a difference. But it’s off-season hype and every player with an obvious hole in their game will talk about how much they’re improving in that area. Let’s be real, it’s a gap in his game and he has a new QB with trust issues who isn’t shy when the players he relies on don’t do their job. That short leash is not going to work and Ronald Jones is not going to be on the field for those plays.
What about Bruce?
The key factor in all of this is how Bruce Arians uses his running backs.
Firstly, his personnel groupings are almost exclusively with one running back at any one time. So if Ogunbowale is on the field for 30% of the time, Jones isn’t going to be on the field for more than 70%.
Secondly, he hasn’t been afraid to mix between a rusher and a catcher where he doesn’t have a true three-down back. David Johnson managed to take nearly the entire workload in his 2016 Cardinals team but other than that, Andre Ellington was often the passing downs guy while using the likes of Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and even Kerwynn Williams to pound the carries.
Even in David Johnson’s rookie year, he started out with Chris Johnson as ‘the guy’, with Andre Ellington catching passes. But then David Johnson started taking the passing-downs role and eventually took the rushing-downs role too.
The New Guy
Ok, so Jones isn’t going to have more than 70% because of Ogunbowale. Does that mean he gets ALL of that 70%? Peyton Barber has gone to Washington after all (because they need more running backs apparently).
In steps Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a 2020 round three pick. Not the early-round pedigree that is going to get us taking away all of Jones’ opportunity, but not a 6th-round practice squad guy either. Third round is decent draft capital and we’ve seen some top running backs taken there – may I refer you to the aforementioned David Johnson?!
But he splits opinion – some of the scouting profiles use phrases like “hasn’t shown much YAC ability” and “built for chunk plays”. Many say he could be good at the goal-line and some say he’s good in the passing game (pass protection + catching).
I’ve seen a range of comparisons but mostly those pass-catching compliment backs – Jamaal Williams, James White, Duke Johnson.
Exploiting Fantasy Football ADP Across Various League Platforms In 2020
I know I said White, I know Tom Brady is the new QB in Tampa, calm down people. White did not become Brady’s safety valve overnight, and certainly not as a rookie. There’s no chance that Brady trusts a rookie third-round pick to be his new best friend, especially without a normal training camp and preseason, and especially when ex-WWE wrestler Robert Paxton Gronkowski is there too. But he will get some work.
And here’s where we’re really starting the speculation on how the workload will be split.
In the last 4 games of the year when Jones started taking more of the work from Barber, Jones was on a 16-game pace of 188 carries, 40 catches, 4 touchdowns.
Barber’s workload in those same 4 games was 128 carries, 24 catches, 0 touchdowns. For a third-round rookie with established competition, you would expect 128 carries to be close to Vaughn’s ceiling – which means that 188 carries for Jones’ would be close to his floor.
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A recent article from David Zach over at Fantasy Pros explores vacated backfield touches. In this analysis, he identifies that running backs returning with a major role to the same offense are often more relied upon than their newly adapting competition. As long as the returning player isn’t a limited role/satellite back (not the case for Jones), or their team added a high profile free agent or rookie (I wouldn’t call Vaughn high profile). So the chances are that a good portion of the 170 touches that Barber leaves behind would go to Jones – yet I haven’t really projected that here, I’m being conservative. There is absolutely scope for his touches to go north.
What about Vaughn’s catches – 24 catches looks light for a James White/Jamaal Williams/Duke Johnson type back, but closer to 40 catches is more realistic. Does this come from Jones’ workload – it’s possible, but more likely that if Vaughn establishes himself as a pass-catcher worthy of that workload then he’ll take away from Ogunbowale too (35 catches in 2019).
So it’s easy to see a situation where Vaughn takes a mix of Barber’s vacated touches and some of Ogunbowale’s catches, without impacting Ronald Jones’ end-of-season workload at all.
As for Touchdowns, Tampa Bay were league average in rushing touchdowns with 15 last year. Brady is unlikely to sling the ball like Jameis so the rushing touchdowns should tick up a notch.
Lets assume 18 TDs – Ogunbowale could vulture a couple, and Brady might take an odd 1 or 2 if he’s had a drink from the fountain of youth that week. Vaughn supposedly profiles as being good at the goal-line, and 2019 saw an even split between Jones and Barber with next to nothing in the passing game either way. Let’s give them 7 each.
Ronald Jones 2020 Fantasy Outlook
That puts Ronald Jones at 215 PPR fantasy points. On a per-game basis, that would have been RB23 in 2019 – that’s almost in Miles Sanders/Joe Mixon territory (although almost everyone expects those guys to be much higher in 2020).
On NFC in July 2020, Ronald Jones Fantasy ADP is RB32.
For Vaughn, we get 165 PPR points – RB37. NFC ADP has him at RB35.
Of course we don’t really know how this is going to shake out. I refer back to where I started (the entrance to the rabbit hole) with Jones’ inability to convert opportunity in year one being a major danger sign, and there’s a chance that Vaughn comes in and blows the doors off. But I doubt it, and to think he’s going to be Brady’s best friend in year one is just not realistic. He’s not going to take significant workload from Jones.
Unless they sign another back from somewhere, which there’s no sign of up to now, that leaves Jones with a decent workload and a great opportunity to build on last year. A conservative outcome for Ronald Jones in 2020 is in that Fantasy RB23 range, with potential for him to increase his carries with some of those vacated Barber touches – that’s going to be a great value at RB35 and I’m in!
