In 2019, suspensions and injuries caused the New York Giants wide receivers to have nearly an identical target share. Golden Tate had 85 targets, Sterling Shepard had 85 targets, and Darius Slayton had 83 targets. With Daniel Jones at the helm heading into the 2020 season, and with all players healthy as well, which wide receiver will be the top dog for the offense?
The Giants rank 10th in vacated targets heading into the 2020 season with 126. Drafting the top wide receiver on the team will provide great fantasy value in the mid to late rounds of the draft. While on the surface this is one of the most evenly spread offensive passing distributions in the league, a deeper examination will show the top wide receiver you need to draft on the Giants, and the ones you need to avoid.
Making Sense of the Giants Wide Receivers Corps in 2020
Darius Slayton & The Engram Effect
In terms of productivity, Evan Engram was slated to have the best statistical output out of all of the giants receiving corps. Despite missing eight games, he still finished with just under 70 targets and 400 yards of receiving. With Engram healthy heading into the 2020 season, he looks to receive a large majority of the team’s targets. A healthy Engram is great for the Giants offense, but how does he individually impact the wide receivers?
To see the impact Engram’s presence had on the other Giants wide receivers, I looked into the splits of each player when Engram was hurt and when engram was healthy.
Offensive Changes in 2020
When Evan Engram was on the field. Darius Slayton averaged six fewer targets a game. In fact, Slayton saw a significant decrease in all statistical categories with Engram healthy.
Given that Slayton is the tallest of the three wide receivers (6-1), he assumed more of a tight end role for the offense. He also assumed more targets and ran more short to intermediate routes without their star tight end (as indicated by his yards per reception).
With Engram fully healthy, Slayton will have a hard time getting enough targets to be fantasy relevant. His yards per reception will surely go up, but with so many options for Daniel Jones, Slayton will be too volatile for fantasy owners in 2020.
During the offseason, the Giants parted with their offensive coordinator and brought in former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett. While Garrett hasn’t been an offensive coordinator since the early 2010s, he has had a strong track record in creating successful offensive schemes.
According to Giants beat writer John Schmeelk, Garrett’s offenses finished inside the top-13 in both yards per game and yards per play when he was the Cowboys offensive coordinator from 2007-2011. When looking at Garrett’s offensive scheme, it closely mirrors a vertical offensive scheme.
Focused on intermediate to deep throws to spread the defense, along with a strong running game to capitalize on fewer men in the box, the offensive scheme has its merit, and will have more Giants wide receivers running deep routes in 2020. The question is though, which Giants WR will benefit from this change in the offense?
Bad News for Golden Tate
While Darius Slayton served as the deep threat for the team last year, the presence of Engram will reduce his overall targets to the point where it will be hard for him to consistently put up numbers.
With Slayton out of the picture, this leaves either Tate or Shepard to serve as the go-to wide receiver for the team’s new offensive scheme.
Both are excellent in the slot, but according to Airyards.com, a site that tracks catch rates in regards to a variety of different variables, Shephard had an above league average catch rate on throws between 15-20 yards downfield. Tate on the other hand, was below the league average for the same range of yards.
This may be surprising to some, as Tate averaged almost 13 yards per reception last year. That compared to Shepard’s 10.25 reception. It is important to note though, that Tate’s value was significantly decreased when Shepard was on the field.
In fact, when both Tate and Shepard were on the field, Tate averaged three fewer receptions a game, 30 fewer yards a game, and saw a 2-yard decrease in his average target depth. As Tate turns 32 this August, it is tough to expect him to lead the team’s wide receivers in terms of fantasy production.
A Sterling Value in 2020
Despite a season with two quarterbacks and an injury that forced him to miss five weeks, Shepard averaged more than eight targets a game and finished the season with more redzone targets than T.Y. Hilton, Robert Woods, and Calvin Ridley (despite playing only ten games).
Superior in the slot, as well as on intermediate routes, Shepard will serve as the main wide receiver in Garrett’s new offensive scheme. While Tate and Slayton will get their fair share of targets, Shepard’s remarkable consistency will carry over into the 2020 season.
While Tate saw a decrease in efficiency with Shepard on the field, and Slayton saw a decrease in targets and catches with Engram on the field, Shepard’s role didn’t change in 2019. Shepard has both a high floor and a high ceiling this year. With Saquon Barkley fully healthy as well, Shepard will be able to take full advantage of Garrett’s vertical offensive scheme.
Final Words
When draft day comes around and you are looking for a third wide receiver on your team, snatch up as many Sterling Shepard shares as possible. His consistency will prevent you from losing, and his upside may just win your league. Let other people take an aging Golden Tate or a one-trick pony deep threat in Darius Slayton. Drafting Shepard will give you great fantasy value at a sneaky price.
