When I first began playing fantasy football, one of the analysts I looked up to most was Matthew Berry at ESPN. He brought a free-spirited, knowledgeable insight to the game that made me enjoy it so much more. Every year, Matthew Berry comes out with one of the best articles in the fantasy football industry: 100 facts for the current season.
This article was truly an inspiration for me, as this statistical deep dive has not only changed the way I look at fantasy football, but also in my work life as a financial analyst. The analytical nature of this type of article helps fantasy football owners learn about WHY we like certain players each year.
This is my stab at a statistical look into the resumes of all NFL players. My goal was to compile fantasy football stats that you could use to dominate your fantasy draft. Here are my findings.
Fantasy Football Stats to Help You DOMINATE Your Draft
Quarterback
Over the past three years, only four quarterbacks have a TD% above 5.5 and at least 500 rushing yards: Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz.
In the last five years, only one rookie QB has put up at least a 4.5% TD-rate and over 300 yards rushing in a single season: Gardner Minshew.
Over the previous two seasons, only three QBs have put up at least 9,000 passing yards and 50 passing TDs total: Pat Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the third-highest volume receiver for LSU in 2019. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson topped 1,500 receiving yards in the same season. Joe Burrow had an 11.4% TD-rate. All of these numbers were orchestrated in part by new Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Carolina’s starting QB in 2020 is Teddy Bridgewater.
Running back
Over the past five years, 24 RBs have put up seasons of 200+ carries and 50+ receptions. Only one of the 24 didn’t finish in the top 12. The average finish of this data set was RB5. Miles Sanders was 21 carries away from this benchmark in 2019. There are 146 carries up for grabs in Philadelphia in 2020.
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Throughout this same five year window, only two RBs have reached the 200+ carry, 50+ reception benchmark in their rookie season. One was Saquon Barkley. The other was Kareem Hunt, whose coach was Andy Reid. Reid has quite the history of using a bell cow RB. Andy Reid’s new rookie RB in 2020 is Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Related | Kansas City Clyde: Edwards-Helaire Becomes Slam Dunk 1.01 In Dynasty Rookie Drafts
The 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers had a full, healthy offensive unit for about one and a half games. With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger in 2018, James Conner tallied 215 carries and 55 receptions. He finished as the RB6.
In the season following no helpful additions to his offensive-line and claims of arthritic knees, Todd Gurley still posted over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 14 total TDs. Sean McVay always has a potent offense. His new lead RB, with supposedly non-arthritic knees, is Cam Akers.
In 2019, 35 RBs posted a season with 40+ targets. 34 of the 35 RB to post such a season played in at least 11 games. The other RB to play in fewer games and still post this high target benchmark? Kareem Hunt.
Wide receiver
In his first two seasons, this player posted the fifth-highest amount of receiving yards in a player’s first two seasons over the past twenty years. He slipped in ADP after posting a lackluster 2019 season with a few backup options at QB. His starting QB will be returning and fully healthy in 2020. This player is Juju Smith-Schuster.
Going into 2019, Chris Godwin was an obvious breakout player, as the Buccaneers had 224 vacant targets. Going into 2020, the Falcons have at least 235 vacant targets up for grabs. The most obvious benefactor? Calvin Ridley.
Since 2014, 17 WRs have been drafted in the first round. That rookie season, the number one non-rookie WR on their team averaged 125 targets on the season. The addition of Jerry Jeudy might harm dynasty value, but for 2020, Courtland Sutton’s volume will be fine.
Since 2010, only 10 WRs have posted at least a 58-900-7 receiving line in their rookie season. The following year, those WRs increased their rookie yardage by 10% and rookie receptions by 22%. In 2019, 2 WRs joined that club and could see great increases in production: D.K. Metcalf and Terry McLaurin.
In 2019, 5 WRs tallied over 100 targets while putting up at least a hyper-efficient 9.8 yards per target. Volume AND efficiency equal a gold mine. 4 of the 5 are going in the top-13 WRs off draft boards. Michael Gallup is being drafted as the WR32 currently. There are 166 targets up for grabs for the Cowboys in 2020.
Tight end
Over the past six years, only two TEs have received at least 66 targets in their rookie season. In 2017 Evan Engram put up a modest yards per target of 6.28. In 2019, Noah Fant produced to the tune of 8.52 yards per target. Since 1992 when targets became an actual statistic, Fant has the highest yards per target among ALL TEs with at least 66 targets.
Related | Finding Late Round Tight End Values In 2020 Fantasy Drafts
Over the past four years, Philip Rivers has targeted TEs at a 20% rate. With over 100 targets available to the TE position, the Colts are a prime spot to receive a TE boost. Jack Doyle is currently being drafted as the TE18.
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