Sentimentality tends to be a funny thing. At times, disregarding it makes perfect sense. In other moments, it drives us in crazy ways. In light of that, it hit me that thirty years ago this fall, I participated in my first fantasy football league. I was not old enough to vote and barely able to drive.
Without a doubt, crazy and fantasy football go together as perfectly as khakis and Jake from State Farm. But, I feel everyone can use some “good crazy” in their lives. This wacky, wonderful game provides me with lots of ongoing friendships. I am proud to say I am part of leagues that have been around for decades. And writing about football enables my creativity and allows me to interact with others who enjoy this as much as I do.
And experience teaches you there are many ways to build a winner. In my first league, yardage was an afterthought as touchdowns were king. However, it did not take long before my introduction to the commonplace scoring of one point for every 10 yards. Time yields more formats such as IDP, PPR, and 2QB.
With so many leagues out there, you cannot put a universal template on draft strategy. But for many, redraft leagues remain the most popular fantasy outlet. Once upon a time, the most common redraft strategy involved loading up on running backs early. In recent years, a significant portion of owners start to focus on other plans. You have either heard or practiced “Do the Opposite” or “Zero RB.” Lots of fantasy general managers also go with what I call “Mix and Match.” You do not ignore the running back position, but you have no problem taking a star wide receiver in the first two rounds along with a back.
Every year, depth happens to be different at each position. In 2009, when I thought wide receiver was exceptionally weak, I selected Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston with my first three picks in one league. In that same league in 2012, my first three picks were Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, and DeMarco Murray, because I thought wide receiver was deeper. Both teams made the playoffs.
You may very well now be tired of my history lesson. But I promise it will lead to something. The best avenue for redraft success in 2020 revolves around going retro. Get your running backs early and harvest a very deep group of wide receivers right after that.
Previously, my colleague Jake Brouillette composed a great article also advocating the early RB strategy:
Why Selecting RBs Early Is The Optimal Fantasy Football Draft Strategy In 2020
I will build on that by going deeper on the wide receivers you will see later on draft day.
Is There Enough Depth to Wait on Wide Receiver?
The website Fantasy Football Calculator provides excellent ADP data for a variety of league formats. For the purposes of emphasizing all of the options out there, I am using ADP data for a 12-team, PPR league. Usually, of course, wide receivers are targeted earlier in PPR. The data will naturally fluctuate daily, especially as we get closer to September. Nonetheless, utilizing a zone of rounds four and five, here is a lengthy group of players who can be important contributors in your push for the playoffs:
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
It remains to be seen how the puzzle pieces will fit in Charlotte. New head coach Matt Rhule enters the NFL after distinguished stints at Temple and Baylor. Teddy Bridgewater takes over at quarterback and Robby Anderson comes over from the Jets to give Bridgewater another target alongside Moore and Curtis Samuel. However, Moore and Christian McCaffrey continue to be the centerpieces in Charlotte.
Despite missing a game, D.J. danced through defenses for 1,175 yards. His touchdown output of four looks likely to increase. Bridgewater offers more than former starter Kyle Allen and Carolina’s young defense should struggle. High-scoring affairs and the Panthers will forge a friendship, especially with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan appearing twice on the schedule. The Panthers also play Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and the emerging Arizona and Denver offenses. For more on Moore and his 2020 upside, check out a great podcast from Yards Per Fantasy founder Alex Johnson:
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Well-regarded fantasy players are often called cheat codes. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Trubisky is the equivalent of a swear word. Mitchell Trubisky’s presence frightens many. The Chicago brass creates competition by bringing Nick Foles over from Jacksonville.
So with Trubisky and Foles, Robinson lacks the luxury of an elite quarterback. However, when a talented player gets 154 targets, as Allen did last year, volume provides a terrific trump card. Robinson totaled 98 receptions for 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns on those targets. Plenty capable of matching those numbers, A-Rob could exceed them. Anthony Miller played well during last year’s stretch run, but outside of Miller, no one on Chicago’s roster offers a remote threat to Robinson. Strange to think a WR1 could come out of the Windy City, but Robinson can overcome the odds.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
Back in 2011, when the Falcons traded up to take Julio Jones, Roddy White was Atlanta’s number one receiver. Before long, Julio makes his mark and becomes Matt Ryan’s main man. At some point, the talented Mr. Ridley will take over as Atlanta’s number one target. However, it may not happen in 2020. Now 31, Julio continues to be an elite receiver. In Weeks 15 and 16, with Ridley out for the season, Julio helps numerous owners win championships by catching 23 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns. Keeping up with this Jones equates to quite a challenge.
But even if Ridley does not eclipse Jones in targets this year, there happens to be plenty to go around. Safety blanket tight end Austin Hooper left for Cleveland in free agency. While Baltimore import Hayden Hurst offers potential as Hooper’s replacement, Jones and Ridley tower over everyone else in Atlanta. Like Carolina, Atlanta figures to get into plenty of shootouts. At worse, Ridley stays as Atlanta’s “1B” and still lights up fantasy scoreboards.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
Despite the decline of the Rams in 2019, Woods notches a career-high 90 receptions. What was missing from Robert’s season was touchdowns. He scored just three (two receiving, one rushing). In 2018, he had a career-high seven. Positive regression seems likely for a variety of reasons.
First, with Brandin Cooks headed to Houston, competition for targets has been lowered. Fellow wideout Josh Reynolds possesses potential. Tight end Tyler Higbee had over 100 yards in four of the last five games of the season. But in the end, Woods and Cooper Kupp provide the most stability to Jared Goff.
Secondly, with Todd Gurley gone, a potentially uncertain running game means more passing. Third, the Rams lost kicker Greg Zuerlein in free agency. Will Rams head coach Sean McVay trust a new kicker as much? My guess would be no. Instead of 50-yard field goal tries, the forecast calls for more fourth-down gambles and opportunities for Woods and others. Woods gives you stability and more upside than most realize.
A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
Booms and busts define fantasy weeks and ultimately seasons. Brown will hit peaks and valleys more often than most in Tennessee’s run-oriented scheme. You will have to accept weeks where the Derrick Henry show makes him less involved.
Nevertheless, Brown’s big weeks should more than make up for the downtimes. In the final six weeks of the season, Brown eclipsed 100 yards four times. During a Week 15 loss to Houston, he was targeted 13 times. Brown led all Tennessee receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. When A.J. gets volume, good things happen. And with trivial competition for targets, an even better second season could be in store for this electrifying Titan.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf makes a major introduction to football fanatics at the 2019 combine. Despite his sensational combine, he proves to be raw at times. But by the time the playoffs roll around, Metcalf showcases his amazing skills. Metcalf catches seven passes for 170 yards and a touchdown during a win in Philadelphia.
So a sophomore boom seems to be on the horizon for Metcalf. As a rookie, he posted 58 receptions for 900 yards and seven touchdowns. Those totals are beatable across the board. He has the classic profile of someone poised to make a major leap. In many years, he would be drafted higher. This year, with the deep group of receivers, Metcalf could be available in round five. If you get your runners and then are able to select this potential star, plan on a playoff run.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
For the first time since 2006, someone other than Philip Rivers will steer the ship for the Chargers. The departure of Rivers casts doubt on Allen’s 2020 prospects. Rivers targeted Allen an average of 148 times over the past three seasons.
Nonetheless, the Rivers of 2019 was not vintage Rivers. Keenan still generates 104 receptions for 1,199 yards and six touchdowns. Are Mike Williams and Hunter Henry going to usurp Allen just because Rivers left for Indianapolis? Possibly, but Williams has not topped 50 receptions in any of his three seasons. Henry needs to prove he can make it through an entire season. Sure, Austin Ekeler will snag plenty of passes out of the backfield. But in the end, Allen stays the most efficient target for new starter Tyrod Taylor (or rookie Justin Herbert). Never having played with a receiver the quality of Allen, why would the artist known as TyGod not pepper Allen with passes?
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Denver drafts wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and panic ensues about Sutton’s 2020 stock. Denver also selects Albert Okwuegbunam, a tight end who played with quarterback Drew Lock at Missouri. Some would wonder why Denver needs Albert O with Noah Fant already on board. All these new weapons and surely Sutton’s going to flop, right?
Allow me to apply a contrarian theory. Lock seems to be the real deal. As long as that proves to be the case, the Denver offense appears to be one that can support multiple fantasy weapons. We often talk about betting on talent who play on bad offenses. Well, Sutton’s talent stands out on any offense. With Lock having a number of other outlets, Sutton will see less attention from defenses. Some of Sutton’s best showings in 2019 came before Emmanuel Sanders was traded to San Francisco. Be wise and count on Courtland instead of fading him.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Honestly, I have more reservations about Hilton than anyone else on this list. Turning 31 in November, Hilton has missed six games the past couple of seasons. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett takes a backseat to Philip Rivers, which may not be a huge upgrade. Rookie Michael Pittman and second-year man Parris Campbell could give the Colts a potent pair of young weapons. When everything adds up, Hilton’s past sounds better than his present.
On the other hand, choosing to write off Hilton entirely might backfire. In Andrew Luck’s last season in 2018, Hilton was targeted 120 times despite missing two games. If Rivers conjures up some old Chargers magic and Hilton stays healthy, a similar amount of targets would be in store. Some think Hilton mainly hits home runs. But of his 11 touchdowns in 2018 and 2019, only one was beyond 20 yards. Still the number one receiver in Indianapolis until proven otherwise, do not be terrified of taking the plunge with T.Y. in 2020.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Many rightfully believe in the sizzle D.K. Metcalf offers Seattle. However, just last year for the Seahawks, Rashaad Penny was the next big thing for the Seahawks. Instead, Penny largely busts while Chris Carson plays an integral role for lots of fantasy squads. While Metcalf appears unlikely to bust, Lockett potentially blocks his ascension to the top of the Seattle pecking order.
Lockett had some ugly moments down the stretch last year. In Week 13, he pitches a shutout. In Week 16, he caught one pass for 12 yards, horrifying owners who started him during Super Bowl week. But he also produced career highs in receptions and yards. Even if Metcalf turns into the star attraction in Seattle, Lockett’s not going anywhere. More of a bargain this year, offer forgiveness for his slump and count on him to help you obtain success.
D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars
Heading into 2019, the buzz in Jacksonville was all about Dede Westbrook. Instead, Chark steals the show with 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. While Westbrook, Chris Conley, and rookie Laviska Shenault will all be involved, Chark’s lead role should not change. Jacksonville figures to be playing from behind frequently, leading to those delectable garbage time goodies. As long as Gardner Minshew stays healthy and shows further growth, Chark will help you win games.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
McLaurin makes a huge splash to start his NFL career with five touchdowns in his first five games. Terry becomes less scary as the season continues, but finishes strong, with 21 receptions for 273 yards and two scores in his final three appearances of 2019. Hopefully, Dwayne Haskins gains more traction as Washington’s starter, which would raise McLaurin’s ceiling. Think of McLaurin as a bit of an East Coast Allen Robinson, with lower potential. But as Washington’s best weapon, he can certainly suffice as a regular starter for your team.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
In 2018, Diggs was an integral part of Minnesota’s offense, getting 149 targets. He produces 102 receptions on those targets. His target count drops to 94 in 2019 with Dalvin Cook and the ground game taking center stage. His reception total falls to 63. Incredibly, his yardage increases from 1,021 to 1,130 despite 39 fewer receptions. Needless to say, after becoming less integral to the Vikings, Diggs embraces the deal sending him to Buffalo.
Diggs becomes Buffalo’s number one receiver. He probably will not get 149 targets like he did two seasons ago. But John Brown and Cole Beasley each topped 100 targets last year for the Bills. Expect Diggs to exceed the century mark again. I mentioned his target counts in Minnesota to show his productivity, no matter what his volume happens to be. One of Stefon’s strengths is scoring on long pass plays. He scored four touchdowns over 40 yards during his final season in Minnesota. Josh Allen’s incredible arm strength meshes well with Diggs’s long-range capabilities. Changing locations does not change Stefon’s ability to single-handedly win weeks for your team.
Again, these players are usually available in rounds four and five. But if you want to wait even later to stock up at wide receiver, plenty of additional bargains exist. Retro is not always about old movies and music. But following this strategy helps your chances of singing “We Are the Champions” at the end of the season!
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