When To Take Clyde Edwards-Helaire & Joe Burrow in 2020 Fantasy Football Drafts?
Few players in the NFL are under a closer microscope than rookies. From the moment these players enter the NFL Draft, they are analyzed, reviewed, and touted as the next great thing. You’d think that scrutiny would subside once the player is drafted. However, for many, that is only the beginning. Hype videos throughout the summer confirm our own biases that the rookie we love is the next Saquon Barkley or Julio Jones. Once the season starts though, that player can fail to make the impact that the fantasy community believed they would. Even at an incredibly young age, rookies provide tremendous upside and severe risk entering 2020 drafts.
See Our 2020 Dynasty Rookie Rankings!
To help, we go to Wall Street. Bull Markets indicate that the economy is doing well and show prosperity. Meanwhile, a Bear Market demonstrates a downturn or lack of return for your investments. When it comes to rookies, it is vital that you, before your draft, do your own stock report on the rookie class. Determine which rookies you are bullish on at their current value, and which you believe will crumble under that microscope. Below, we go through the top consensus rookies at their respective position and demonstrate why you should be bullish or bearish on their current value.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Current ADP: QB 16 (per ESPN)
Current Overall ADP: 151 (per ESPN)
Why You Should Be Bullish
Joe Burrow had one of the best single collegiate seasons in history. In just 15 games, Burrow completed 402 passes for 5671 yards, sixty touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions. Additionally, he added 115 carries for 368 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. Leading LSU to the National Championship while producing these outrageous statistics cemented his placement as the #1 overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.
See Joe Burrow In Our 2020 Fantasy Football Rankings Here!
In Cincinnati, he is entering a situation where he has a plethora of weapons to choose from. When healthy, AJ Green is arguably a top 10 receiver in the league. Tyler Boyd just came off a career year, putting up 90 catches for 1,046 and 5 touchdowns. John Ross still is present, and the Bengals selected Tee Higgins at #33 overall. Additionally, the Bengals have two fantastic receiving options out of the backfield in Joe Mixon and Giovanni Bernard. Also, the offensive line is welcoming 2019 First-Round selection Jonah Williams back with open arms. If Burrow can take advantage of these weapons, he should outperform his ADP of QB 16, and flirt with top 12 numbers.
Why You Should be Bearish
While all of that is great, there is a reason the Bengals were drafting first overall. AJ Green has only played in just 9 of his last 32 NFL games and will be 32 by the time the season starts. The evidence supports the notion that he will likely miss games throughout the year. Outside Green, the only receiving option who has returned worthwhile production is Boyd. John Ross displays the same injury concerns as Green, failing to play a full season three years in his career.
Meanwhile, Burrow is facing the unique difficulty of entering his rookie season with a global pandemic occurring. The offseason is a vital time for quarterbacks and receiving options to make the connections that assist them when the games matter. Additionally, the Bengals offensive line gave up 48 sacks last season, sixth-most in the league. In order for Burrow to outperform his ADP, he needs both his receivers to maintain their health and his offensive line to prove. Both of these are much easier said than done.
VERDICT: BEAR (With a Caveat)
At his current ADP, Burrow does not represent a value investment. In leagues where 1QB is started, Burrow should not be your starting QB walking out of the draft. Major concerns with receiver health and offensive line concerns are compounded with Burrow being a rookie and the unique offseason. Quarterbacks going behind Burrow include Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff, and both of these QBs should provide more consistency than Burrow. Burrow currently sits as my QB 18 for the 2020 season.
However, Burrow’s upside is higher than most, if not all of the QBs below him per ESPN fantasy ADP. As such, if you frequently stream quarterbacks, Burrow could potentially develop into a matchup-based streaming option. He is a high-risk, high-reward player, so if you are in a 2QB/SF league, he should return QB 2 value, with some QB 1 weeks, along with some clunkers.
Clyde Edward-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Current ADP: RB 14 (per ESPN)
Current Overall ADP: 30 (per ESPN)
Why You Should Be Bullish
Speaking of the National Championship winning LSU team, their star running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, goes from one championship team to another. CEH was selected at #32 overall by the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. In 2019 at LSU, he took 215 carries for 1414 yards and 16 touchdowns, while catching 55 passes for 453 yards and 1 touchdown. As Damien Williams proved at times last year, the receiving back for the Mahomes-led offense has the potential to win a week at any point. With CEH’s high draft capital, he will hopefully see the field early and often. If he can establish himself as the workhorse back in Kansas City, he will outperform his current ADP.
Kansas City Clyde: Edwards-Helaire Becomes Slam Dunk 1.01 In Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Why You Should Be Bearish
However, establishing himself as the workhorse RB will be much easier said than done. In just three games during the NFL playoffs last season, Williams dominated, turning 46 carries into 194 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns, while contributing 11 receptions for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns. This included 133 total yards and two touchdowns in the Super Bowl, making a legitimate case for Super Bowl MVP. While the Chiefs spent a first-round pick on CEH, it is difficult to imagine that he will cement himself as a workhorse before the season starts, especially with the uncertainty of this offseason. If Williams remains integral, drafting CEH at RB 14 is a gamble you shouldn’t take.
VERDICT: BEAR (To Start)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is currently ranked as my RB 20. He will be on none of my rosters on draft night at his current ADP. While he posses massive upside, it is illogical to think he will come in and immediately command a workhorse role. Running Backs behind him I prefer to CEH include Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, and Todd Gurley, among others. These three are more likely to hit the ground running than CEH, and should command larger workloads Week One.
However, this doesn’t mean I am completely down on CEH for the duration of the 2020 season. CEH will be effective at some point in 2020. His natural talent will siphon more and more of Damien Williams’ backfield as the year goes on. As a player who may take some time to develop, he is firmly placed on my list of buy lows should he get off to a rough start. And he should be on yours as well.
See CEH & Joe Burrow In Our 2020 Fantasy Football SuperFlex Rookie Rankings Here!
Part Two to Come soon! Follow @FF_Durham on Twitter for more decently warm takes, generous advice, and overall positivity.
