2020 Fantasy Football Projections: Lower Than Consensus
A couple of weeks ago, we released an article titled “10 Players My 2020 Fantasy Football Projections Are Higher On Than Consensus”, and thanks to you, it was a hit! So, I decided to dive into the projections and put my neck on the line.
Everyone has their favorite guy going into the season. This guy is destined to break out and be the horse you ride to a championship. In this article, I’ll try and pick ten guys that you’re high on and crush your dreams. Because remember, we hate all your favorite players.
Same formatting will apply as last time. I’ll list the player, where he ranks in my raw 2020 fantasy football projections, and the difference between that ranking and the consensus on FantasyPros.
10. Mark Ingram RB34 (-10)
I can hear you already. “But how will the lead back on a top-three offense NOT be a great RB for fantasy?” I understand every word. However, when NFL teams show their hand and tell us how they feel about a player, we MUST listen.
Mark Ingram is entering his age 31 season. The Ravens spent the 55th overall pick in 2020 on J.K. Dobbins, my RB1 pre-draft. Dobbins will be mixed in from day one, and that spells nothing but a committee in 2020.
9. Tyler Higbee TE19 (-11)
Consensus really has this man as a top-eight TE??? In his first 48 games as a pro, Higbee received five or more targets in only FIVE games. Yes, he accomplished this feat in each of his last six games of 2019, but that’s when Gerald Everett was all but out of the lineup.
The Rams are planning to diversify their scheme more, and that means more two-TE sets. Everett and Higbee will all but cannibalize themselves, and that is not going to be fun for fantasy.
8. Aaron Rodgers QB14 (-4)
As a self-proclaimed “Rodgers > Brady” guy, this one hurts. But did you watch the 2020 NFL Draft? The LAST thing the Packers are worried about is passing the ball. Davante Adams will receive about 300 targets this year, but other than him, Rodgers is throwing to bench players on most other teams.
In my fantasy football projections, I have Rodgers’ attempts dipping, and with other QBs making leaps and improving in volume AND talent, it pushes Rodgers down on the board to a territory I won’t be touching him.
7. Josh Allen QB13 (-6)
“But Jake, running QB are cheat codes in fantasy football!” I wholeheartedly agree. I even have Allen acquiring roughly 28-percent of his fantasy production on the ground. The addition of Stefon Diggs also has his passing arrow pointed sky high.
However, it’s tough to project him for more than 500 passing attempts on the season after the Bills spent a third-round pick on a RB. The Bills have one of the highest run rates in the NFL, and I don’t see that philosophy changing much. Allen will have to make leaps in his progression to be a high-end QB1 with so few attempts.
6. Adam Thielen WR35 (-19)
This one doesn’t feel too good to write down. Many draft analysts are talking up Thielen as a mid-round gem destined to provide value for your fantasy team, and I agree to an extent. The more talented receiver left town so there are many vacated targets to go around.
However, with Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph, the emerging Irv Smith Jr., and new addition Justin Jefferson taking up Kirk Cousins’ limited attempts, I don’t see enough volume for Thielen to thrive as a high-end WR2 like many are suggesting. Thielen will need to be hyper-efficient in the TD department to provide any kind of consistency.
10 Players My 2020 Fantasy Football Projections Are Higher On Than Consensus
5. A.J. Brown WR23 (-6)
If this were a dynasty discussion, I’d be all over A.J. Brown. Alpha dog in an offense where he’ll get plenty of efficient touches from a QB who doesn’t take risks. The problem with Brown for 2020? There’s a 240-pound RB on his team that’s going to receive about 500 touches this year.
The Titans feast on setting up Tannehill with easy throws off the run action. Tennessee ran the third least amount of plays in the NFL in 2019, and I don’t expect that to change much. I love Brown the player, just not as much as the consensus.
4. Devin Singletary RB33 (-11)
The Bills spent nearly equal draft capital on Devin Singletary (74 overall) and Zack Moss (86 overall), but the fantasy industry is all-in on Singletary as Buffalo's clear RB1…
Re-draft ADP: Singletary (RB20); Moss (RB46)
Dynasty ADP (from DLF): Singletary (RB21); Moss (RB33)
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) May 27, 2020
This one is quite perplexing. Last year Singletary split carries with the “Eighth Wonder of the World” Frank Gore. After letting him walk in free agency, the Bills didn’t fully hand the reins to Singletary. Instead they spent a third-round pick on Zack Moss.
Singletary’s consensus ranking suggests he’ll receive the bulk of the touches, but I don’t know if Buffalo has that in mind. Moss is a smart runner between the tackles like Gore and will eat into Singletary’s upside.
3. Josh Jacobs RB17 (-6)
Here’s a list of some of the players who out targeted Josh Jacobs in the 2019 season: Rhett Ellison, Patrick Laird, DeAndre Washington, and Jalen Richard. Richard is still on the same team as Jacobs, and Washington was replaced in Las Vegas by the all-around offensive weapon Lynn Bowden Jr.
If I throw the number of targets Jacobs deserves in my fantasy football projections, he becomes a top-5 option. Jacobs deserves more passing work than he received in 2019, but the moves made by the Raiders tell me I might be left waiting on that extra work.
2. Cooper Kupp WR24 (-10)
Where does Cooper Kupp dominate? The slot. What’s the most efficient receiving spot on the field for fantasy? The slot. After the Rams announced they’d be moving to more multi-TE formations, which position will be hurt the most? The slot.
Robert Woods got more opportunity than Cooper Kupp last year, especially over the Rams' last eight games.
Kupp ADP: 36.3 (WR13)
Woods ADP: 48.1 (WR19)IMO, Woods is the best value in fantasy right now. pic.twitter.com/zPBqZlmTTZ
— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) May 25, 2020
Kupp’s targets dipped from 10.9/game before the bye week to 5.9/game after the bye week, when Los Angeles started deploying more multi-TE formations. Add on to that Kupp’s questionable success on the outside, and you get way more questions than answers. Kupp is not worth a high-WR2 selection.
1. DeAndre Hopkins WR14 (-11)
Hopkins is easily one of the top three WR in the NFL today. He’s extremely talented in every facet of the position. However, Hopkins goes from a team with weapons comprising of sometimes-healthy Will Fuller and Kenny Stills to Arizona where he’ll play with Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Kenyan Drake.
Add in the fact that Hopkins will be on a new team with shortened practice time thanks our current predicament, and you’ll see that the odds are stacked against him.
The difference between Hopkins and my WR10 is less than five fantasy points. There are just too many names above that mark in much clearer situations that I’d be willing to bet on instead of Hopkins.
