You’ve finally done it. All of your preseason research, countless mock drafts, scouring the waiver wire and making calculated trades paid off. You claimed a coveted spot in your league’s playoffs. You are now looking for more success over the final three weeks of the fantasy football season. Now that you’re here, how do you push past your fellow tournament competitors and claim the title of Fantasy Football Champion? What should be your fantasy football playoff strategy?
Conventional wisdom tells you to “stick with what got you here.” However, that’s not really what fantasy football is. It is a week-to-week, matchup based, statistics-driven and a trend-based game that allows for manager adjustments at any time. Don’t let that change in the playoffs. I’m not advocating for an all-out change in your strategy and plan, but don’t let big names and inflated points projections drive who you lock into your starting lineups.
Just as offensive coordinators do in regular NFL games, find your best matchups and exploit them. Below, I profile Saquon Barkley. He has been arguably the most disappointing RB drafted inside the top-ten of most fantasy leagues (save David Johnson, primarily due to injury). This piece isn’t just for Barkley owners. Many fantasy managers have difficult decisions to make over the next few weeks in regard to their lineups. Below Barkley’s profile, are a few lesser-known names. You can likely pluck them off the waiver wire or pull from your bench into your lineup to make a final push towards your championship. The goal here is just to get you thinking outside the box. Also, to explore different avenues of success aside from just rolling a player out each week because of their name alone.
Saquon Barkley RB, New York Giants
If you have Barkley on your roster, chances are you’re probably going to ignore me and roll him out throughout the duration of your playoffs. Since Week 8, Barkley’s fantasy points have plummeted from north of 25 points to 15 or less each week. He dominates the snap share of the Giants’ offense at 86.2 percent. His team is near the bottom of the league in run plays per game at 21.4, good for No. 28 in the league. Barkley has also been allergic to the end zone and only boasts an anemic three total TDs in the 2019 season. His efficiency, mostly because of his awful O-Line and always playing from behind, is awful. He has turned in 3.6 yards per carry (44th among qualified RBs) and a 3.4 percent big run rate (31st among qualified RBs).
QB Daniel Jones doesn’t seem to want to check down to Barkley as often as PPR owners would like, limiting his upside and big-game potential. Putting Saquon on the bench might be a tough pill to swallow. Keep in mind, the Giants are officially eliminated from the postseason. It isn’t too inconceivable to think that if New York is blown out of one of their upcoming games they would rest their superstar RB to preserve him for the start of the 2020 season. That would put fantasy owners in a terrible predicament when trying to clinch a title. I’m not just hating on Barkley, obviously, other top-ranked and top-drafted RBs (see David Johnson, James Conner) have disappointed their fantasy owners and likely left them in a deficit to overcome to make their fantasy playoffs. Below are a few potential under-the-radar playoff heroes.
Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy: Substitute RBs
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
The rookie RB has played second fiddle to the ageless Frank Gore for most of the season. Gore will still get a few carries, but Devin Singletary has had 15 or more rushes four of the last five weeks and has turned that into 381 yards and one touchdown. Singletary has also shown his value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He has 11 receptions over that time, including one for a touchdown. Over those same five games, Gore has just 51 carries for 130 yards, resulting in a paltry 2.54 yards per carry compared to Singletary’s 4.88. Gore has just four receptions during this timeframe showing he is nearly non-existent in the passing game for Buffalo.
It is clearly Singletary’s time in Buffalo to be the featured back. Fantasy owners should be there reaping the fruits of his labor. Singletary has the No. 3 ranked offensive line which is helping him with his running lanes. The Bills have also committed to the run to help out franchise QB Josh Allen as they rank sixth in the NFL at run plays per game (29.7 per game). Singletary isn’t a sexy or household name but he could be a replacement for Barkley if a fantasy owner felt bold enough to make the move.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson has seemingly dominated Seattle’s backfield touches in the first three quarters of the fantasy football season. However, Rashaad Penny has carved himself a nice role within Seattle’s run-heavy offensive scheme. Seattle ran the ball 38 times last week against Minnesota with 23 carries for Carson and 15 for Penny. Each RB had a rushing TD. The difference was Penny showcased himself as a capable receiver out of the backfield. He turned five targets into four catches for 33 yards and another score.
This is an extremely small sample size, but one that Seattle will look to exploit moving forward. Penny’s playing time is skyrocketing. In Weeks 8-9 he played just 15.6 percent of Seattle’s offensive snaps. In Weeks 10-12 that number jumps to 49.4 percent. We love touches and the opportunity for touches in fantasy football. We love those touches and opportunities even more in productive offenses. Seattle boasts the No. 1 ranked offense line in regard to productivity and runs the football at the third-highest clip in the NFL. I’ll take some of that in the fantasy football playoffs.
Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
This one is for my PPR folks out there as Duke Johnson doesn’t bring much upside as a ball-carrier to the table for his fantasy owners. Boasting a 51.2 percent snap share throughout the season on an offense that is just outside the top-ten in the NFL for run plays per game (27.2 per game). He is also averaging 3.4 targets per game. I like his touches and opportunity for more in the upcoming weeks.
Back-mate Carlos Hyde will most certainly continue to dominate the carries for the Texans, but Johnson’s snap shares have been higher than Carlos Hyde’s (54.3 and 47.5 percent, respectively) over the past six contests. Johnson averages 1.06 fantasy points per opportunity (FPPO) which is higher than Saquon Barkley (0.72), Josh Jacobs (0.74), Melvin Gordon (0.72), Ezekiel Elliot (0.77) and Le’veon Bell (0.70). The formers have much more volume than the latter. However, as the touches and opportunities continue to increase, the production will as well.
These are just three examples. It should give you an idea of how important matchups and the opportunity for touches is over the next few weeks when it comes to fantasy football playoff strategy. Will you be bold enough to pull a name like Saquon Barkley or Todd Gurley from your lineup for a not-as-sexy name like Devin Singletary or Duke Johnson? Or do you have the depth in your lineup to even make this type of decision a consideration? Be bold, but go with your gut in the end. It’s probably what got you to the playoffs in the first place.
