Derrick Henry’s 2019 Fantasy Value
Derrick Henry‘s fantasy value is quite polarizing. He is a talented running back with a linebacker’s body. Give him a head of steam and he can run through you. He also has enough agility to juke you if he needs to. All that being said, don’t draft him. His current ADP is 3.02. With that high of a price, the player should be able to return immediate value in Week One. Derrick Henry will not do that.
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Exhibit A
Henry has been in the league for three years now. Most will remember the incredible end of season run from last year, where he had one-third of his rushing yards in two games. He also had half of his touchdowns in those two games. What most won’t remember is that this is what he does every year in December.
Henry’s career average yards per carry is 4.58, which is pretty good. However, analyzing by month, in September it is 3.8, October 3.99, November 4.9, December 5.2. That’s an incredible spike once it turns cold. It should be noted that Tennessee plays outside so maybe the conditions play a mild factor. In last year’s spike, his huge game was at a temperature of 44 degrees and only five miles per hour winds.
Exhibit B
It is not just his yards per carry that spike in December, his attempts nearly double from November. He has totalled just over 100 attempts for September and October, dips to 90 in November, and then spikes to a whopping 184 in December.
The Plan Instead
Instead of investing the third round capital on Henry, draft another player that will give you more immediate results. Let the season play out, and when Henry inevitably gets off to a slow start, send an offer to the Henry owner in week four. Ideally, a bench RB that has had a big game or is in line to see a slight increase in work. Wait a couple of weeks for the end of November and then plug Henry into your flex and reap the rewards.
