Fantasy Football Strategy: Value Based Drafting And Why It Works
Late Round QB, Late Round TE. This is the mantra of most analysts within the fantasy community. It is shouted from the rooftops and anyone who disagrees is scoffed at. There are strengths and pitfalls to this approach. However, we forget about the simple art of value-based drafting. “But Lee, how am I supposed to know when exactly to target a QB or TE, especially when everyone is telling me to wait until late and target the sleepers?” To help answer this question,I have collected the average scores per game of each position over the last four years.
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| TE | Pts | QB | Pts | WR | Pts | RB | Pts | |||
| TE1 | 13.98 | QB1 | 24.58 | WR1 | 18.38 | RB1 | 22.48 | |||
| TE2 | 13.08 | QB2 | 21.78 | WR2 | 17.7 | RB2 | 20.58 | |||
| TE3 | 12.25 | QB3 | 21.38 | WR3 | 16.83 | RB3 | 19.25 | |||
| TE4 | 11.1 | QB4 | 20.4 | WR4 | 16.33 | RB4 | 18.23 | |||
| TE5 | 10.55 | QB5 | 19.98 | WR5 | 15.7 | RB5 | 17.68 | |||
| TE6 | 10.25 | QB6 | 19.38 | WR6 | 15.28 | RB6 | 16.98 | |||
| TE7 | 9.85 | QB7 | 19.08 | WR7 | 14.78 | RB7 | 16.65 | |||
| TE8 | 9.25 | QB8 | 18.75 | WR8 | 14.6 | RB8 | 16.05 | |||
| TE9 | 8.88 | QB9 | 18.48 | WR9 | 14.3 | RB9 | 14.95 | |||
| TE10 | 8.73 | QB10 | 18.3 | WR10 | 13.9 | RB10 | 14.13 | |||
| TE11 | 8.43 | QB11 | 18.13 | WR11 | 13.5 | RB11 | 13.63 | |||
| TE12 | 8.3 | QB12 | 17.95 | WR12 | 13.28 | RB12 | 13.48 | |||
| QB13 | 17.5 | WR13 | 13.18 | RB13 | 13.25 | |||||
| QB14 | 17.3 | WR14 | 13.03 | RB14 | 12.93 | |||||
| QB15 | 17.15 | WR15 | 12.98 | RB15 | 12.88 | |||||
| QB16 | 17 | WR16 | 12.8 | RB16 | 12.55 | |||||
| QB17 | 16.8 | WR17 | 12.63 | RB17 | 12.08 | |||||
| QB18 | 16.63 | WR18 | 12.45 | RB18 | 11.88 | |||||
| WR19 | 12.38 | RB19 | 11.75 | |||||||
| WR20 | 12.23 | RB20 | 11.65 | |||||||
| WR21 | 12.1 | RB21 | 11.4 | |||||||
| WR22 | 11.7 | RB22 | 11.2 | |||||||
| WR23 | 11.53 | RB23 | 11.03 | |||||||
| WR24 | 11.33 | RB24 | 10.8 | |||||||
| WR25 | 11.2 | RB25 | 10.78 | |||||||
| WR26 | 11.08 | RB26 | 10.75 | |||||||
| WR27 | 10.85 | RB27 | 10.58 | |||||||
| WR28 | 10.68 | RB28 | 10.33 | |||||||
| WR29 | 10.58 | RB29 | 10.13 | |||||||
| WR30 | 10.45 | RB30 | 10.08 | |||||||
| WR31 | 10.3 | RB31 | 9.9 | |||||||
| WR32 | 10.08 | RB32 | 9.75 | |||||||
| WR33 | 10.03 | RB33 | 9.65 | |||||||
| WR34 | 9.93 | RB34 | 9.58 | |||||||
| WR35 | 9.85 | RB35 | 9.45 | |||||||
| WR36 | 9.75 | RB36 | 9.25 | |||||||
| WR37 | 9.68 | RB37 | 9.18 | |||||||
| WR38 | 9.63 | RB38 | 8.88 | |||||||
| WR39 | 9.58 | RB39 | 8.73 | |||||||
| WR40 | 9.48 | RB40 | 8.58 | |||||||
| WR41 | 9.48 | RB41 | 8.38 | |||||||
| WR42 | 9.38 | RB42 | 8.33 | |||||||
| WR43 | 9.3 | RB43 | 8.3 | |||||||
| WR44 | 9.18 | RB44 | 8.2 | |||||||
| WR45 | 9.03 | RB45 | 8.13 | |||||||
| WR46 | 8.93 | RB46 | 7.98 | |||||||
| WR47 | 8.8 | RB47 | 7.88 | |||||||
| WR48 | 8.65 | RB48 | 7.8 | |||||||
| WR49 | 8.53 | RB49 | 7.58 | |||||||
| WR50 | 8.5 | RB50 | 7.5 | |||||||
| WR51 | 8.3 | |||||||||
| WR52 | 8.25 | |||||||||
| WR53 | 8.13 | |||||||||
| WR54 | 8 | |||||||||
| WR55 | 7.93 | |||||||||
| WR56 | 7.85 | |||||||||
| WR57 | 7.78 | |||||||||
| WR58 | 7.73 | |||||||||
| WR59 | 7.58 | |||||||||
| WR60 | 7.43 |
Understanding The Chart
I took the average points per game scored by the TE1 over the last four years and then averaged it out to find the number you see in this chart. Then I did the same for the TE2 and so on. This was done for each position up until a certain threshold. The key aspect of this chart is not the actual numbers. Looking at the actual values, it would suggest that we should draft QBs early and often. But that is not the case. This chart should be used to compare the drop off in one position to the drop off in another position.
Example
Here is an example of how to use this chart. Travis Kelce is ranked as the TE1 for 2019. He falls right next to the WR5 and RB9 (Odell Beckham Jr. and Melvin Gordon) in FantasyPros ADP. Over the past four years, the player who finishes as the TE1 scored 13.98 points per game. The WR5 averaged 15.7 points per game and the RB9 averaged 14.95. It is natural to think that we should draft the WR over the other two positions strictly based on total points per game. However, that is actually not the case.
Let’s look at TE. If we were to draft the TE2 (George Kittle), it would be around Mike Evans and Damien Williams–the WR8 and RB13, respectively. As we see in the chart, he drop off from TE1 to TE2 is 0.9 points. The drop off from WR5 to WR8 is 1.1 points while the drop off from RB9 to RB13 is 1.7 points. Therefore, in this particular example, It makes the most sense to draft an RB where you would be able to get the TE1.
Applying The Strategy On Draft Day
This chart/strategy can be applied to your whole draft, and especially when you’re looking to take a QB or TE. If others subscribe to the late QB or TE, you might start to see high-level players at the position falling. For example, the TE3 is currently ranked right near the WR9 and RB13. If he starts to fall closer to the WR21 and RB20 he could end up being a steal. This is because the typical drop off form TE3 to TE4 is 1.15 points whereas the drop off from WR21 to WR26 is 1.02 and the drop from RB20 to RB23 is 0.62. You are losing more points by drafting the higher ranked RB or WR than the higher ranked TE.
Ultimately, this strategy isn’t a perfect science. The TE2 in your rankings may not finish as the TE2 in fantasy. You also might see that it is best to wait until your next pick to grab a TE, but you might not have that luxury because he likely won’t come back around to you. However, it’s about finding the best value at each position. Sometimes that means not necessarily prescribing to a specific philosophy, like waiting until the 10th round to grab a TE. It’s about adjusting as the draft comes to you.
