2019 Undervalued Fantasy Football Players: Part Two
In my last article I took a look at players who are overvalued at their ADP. Now, I will identify 2019’s most undervalued fantasy football players. These are players who should be drafted relative to their cost. I will have a lot of these players on my teams. I go into every draft open to selecting any player at the right price. Value based drafting will help you accumulate a roster of players that will out-produce their ADP. This is part two. Check out part one here.
5. Tyreek Hill, Wide Receiver, Chiefs
At the time of this writing its unknown whether Tyreek Hill will have a suspension for his pending child abuse case. Currently, according to FFCalculator.com Hill is being selected in the early fourth round around WR16 overall. Im guessing before most fantasy drafts in late August, early September we’ll have an answer on Hill’s suspension status. I’d be comfortable selecting Hill even in round two with a four-game suspension. You will likely be able to get him a round or two cheaper. If your league puts 75-percent of the teams into the fantasy playoffs you’d have to consider selecting Hill even earlier.
Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill were the only WRs to have four (4) top three (3)WR performances in 2018 #FantasyFootball
Hill is currently being discounted due to looming suspension around the 4th round.
Via: @fantasy_finest pic.twitter.com/0I8BjbJyq1
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) July 8, 2019
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The Chiefs offense will likely regress, but that doesn’t mean they won’t pile up statistics to help your roster. Hill will have to be on his best behavior this year as the Chiefs will have a very big decision after the 2019 season when Hill is set to become an unrestricted free agent. The window for acquiring Hill is closing for this season, but if you’re getting ready to draft, select Hill and piece together WR. With Create-A-Rank in-season help you will be able to get to the playoffs without Hill and then have an added stud come fantasy playoff time.
4. Devonta Freeman, Running back, Falcons
Devonta Freeman missed all but two games in 2018 due to a groin injury but enters 2019 healthy and at a nice draft discount. Freeman is currently being selected in the mid-to-late third round around the 17th running back off the board. With Tevin Coleman leaving in free agency for San Francisco, the Falcons primary backup will be Ito Smith. Look for Freeman to take a bulk of the work and get closer to his 22 touches per game he had in 2015. In 2016-2017 Freeman was a 16-17 touch guy. Look for Freeman to flirt with 200 carries and around 1,000 yards.
Devonta Freeman scored 214.3 PPR points over his last 16 games (2017-18). This would have been good enough to finish as the RB14 in 2018 #FantasyFootball #SFB9 #Falcons
Via: @fantasy_finest pic.twitter.com/dATR4JnDDg
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) July 8, 2019
He will be involved heavily in the passing game, too with 45-55 receptions. The Falcons have many mouths to feed in 2019 but Freeman comes at a great price to get solid RB2 numbers with upside. The Falcons drafted two offensive linemen in the first round and with a solid passing attack, Freeman will see less stacked boxes to help him succeed.
3. Leonard Fournette, Running Back, Jaguars
Another running back I love this season is Leonard Fournette. Currently being selected in the early third round around the 15th back off the board, Fournette offers great upside if he can stay healthy. That last part is key. Fournette played in just two of his first nine games in 2018 due to nagging ankle and hamstring injuries. Over the last six games, Fournette scored six times. As a rookie, Fournette showed he was capable of putting together a good season as a workhorse back. He had 1,342 total yards and 10 touchdowns, finishing as RB8 in 13 games. With a new quarterback in Jacksonville, 2019 offers a fresh start.
In 2018, Leonard Fournette caught 22 of 26 targets in 8 games, an 85% catch rate. #FantasyFootball
Without TJ Yeldon, look for Fournette to increase his receptions in 2019.
Via: @fantasy_finest pic.twitter.com/7UcxO7LXWd
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) July 8, 2019
t’s a misconception that Fournette isn’t able to catch. Fournette had an 85% catch rate on limited targets last season. As a rookie Fournette had 36 catches. TJ Yeldon’s 55 receptions from 2018 are vacated If he can stay healthy this year, look for Fournette to approach 50 receptions and post RB1 numbers at a third round discount.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Packers
While I don’t advocate taking a QB early, Aaron Rodgers May be the only exception this year. While your league will understandably flock to Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, and Deshaun Watson in the earlier rounds, Rodgers will fall. Currently being selected in the late fifth round as the third or fourth quarterback taken, Rodgers offers great upside at cost. Rodgers is due for a bounce-back season. In 2018, Rodgers finished as QB7, with a career-low 25 touchdowns.
Looks like a complete anomaly. Career % inside the red zone is 58.5%
I’m expecting a big bounce back from Rodgers this year. https://t.co/ssja2N4D6z
— FineHour (@JFineHour) June 27, 2019
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Rodgers was banged-up in the season opener and was hindered by the injury for weeks. He posted a completion percentage of 62.3-percent, well below his career average of 68.3-percent. Rodgers wasn’t accurate in the red zone last year either, completing only 42.5-percent of his attempts, which was last among qualifying quarterbacks. His career average is 58.5-percent. With a career touchdown rate of 6.2-percent, look for Rodgers to throw at least 10 more touchdowns as he improves upon his 4.2-percent career-low. Finding consistent play from his second and third receiver options was a struggle all year. Mike McCarthy was fired and Matt LaFleur has taken over. LaFleur will employ a similar offense to Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. Look for Rodgers to bounce-back this season. Drafting him in the third-to-fifth round will prove valuable.
1. Mike Evans, Wide Receiver, Buccaneers
Mike Evans being drafted at 2.7, WR8 is an injustice. Whoever drafts him is going to get great value in the second round. WR2-to-WR8 is a giant tier for me, only separated by about 20 fantasy points or about 1.25 points per game. Evans is a target hog, amassing 135-plus targets in four straight seasons. Jameis Winston isn’t afraid to throw it up to him. Evans posted a career-high 1,524 yards and 17.7 yards-per-catch in 2018.
Mike Evans was the only top-15 WR with a fantasy points per touch greater than 3.3 in 2018 #FantasyFootball
Via: @fantasy_finest pic.twitter.com/wUfeKAuf6T
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) July 8, 2019
With Bruce Arians hired as the new head coach, look for the passing attack to open up more. With DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries gone, it opens up 179 targets (29-percent) to be spread out to Evans, Chris Godwin, Justin Watson, and O.J. Howard. With five-straight 1,000 yard seasons, Evans offers a safe stud floor with an even higher ceiling. With the Buccaneers defense expected to be poor and playing in an offense-powered division, look for Evans to be a garbage time monster. I don’t care if he’s only productive because of sheer volume. Bring it on!
