2026 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 9
2026 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 9
The calendar flips to November, and that only means one thing: we are officially on the road to the 2026 College Football Playoff. After nine full weeks of wall-to-wall college football action, we now have the first look of the committee’s rankings.
This is just the first of six eventual reveals, until we finally see the playoff bracket on Sunday, December 6th. But with the biggest Saturday of the season upon us, there is no better time to dissect the initial rankings. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2026 College Football Playoff field after week 9.
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2026 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
There was not much change from the 2025 College Football Playoff rules to this year. The main exception relates to the automatic qualifiers. Last year, the five highest ranked conference champions made the playoffs. This resulted in both Tulane and James Madison getting in the field from the Group of Six, rather than ACC Champion, Duke.
Now, the conference champion from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will automatically be in the field. Meaning: last year would have Duke, Texas Tech, Indiana, and Georgia automatically in the field, and leaving James Madison out of the field.
There is also the Notre Dame rule for this year: if the Fighting Irish are ranked in the top-12, they automatically are in the field. Using the rankings from last year, even though Notre Dame was ranked #11 behind #10 Miami – and lost to them head-to-head – Notre Dame will leapfrog the Hurricanes and be in the field. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles the Fighting Irish this year.
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
In the Playoff Teams
Miami is one of three unbeaten teams remaining, along with Utah and UCLA. They are also the only unbeaten team in conference play in the ACC. Miami has a win over Wake Forest by two scores, but the rest of their schedule is lackluster.
Until they play Notre Dame this week. This is also the last road game for the Hurricanes. Home games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College remain for conference play. A win this weekend will likely lock them in for the 1-seed – barring any major injury or upset. Even with a loss, Miami’s dominance for most of their schedule should be enough to get them to Charlotte for the ACC Championship game, and at worse an at-large bid in this year’s playoffs.
Still Alive Teams
Wake Forest is the only other team with a chance at the 2026 playoffs in the ACC. Entering this week, the Demon Deacons are ranked 11th in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and 14th in the Sagarin Rating. Yet, they appeared 16th in the initial polls. They have their FCS game this week against Merrimack. The following week is the biggest game remaining on their schedule – at SMU. They follow that up with a trip to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech, and a home game at Duke for their finale. With their current ranking, Wake cannot afford any slipup. A handful of teams are behind the Demon Deacons with just two losses in conference play. Tiebreaker scenarios could take them out of the ACC Championship game.
At the end of the day, they control their own destiny – win out, and you get a rematch with Miami. A position Jake Dickert and the coaching staff would easily have signed up for in August.
The best case scenario for the ACC, at this point, would be Miami knocking off Notre Dame this week to hand the Irish their second loss. If Wake Forest wins out and finishes at 11-1, and Miami finishes the regular season undefeated, I would find it difficult to not have two ACC teams in the field.
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#11 Notre Dame (7-1)
Notre Dame lost their first test of the year when they played BYU in Provo at night. The rest of their schedule has been a cakewalk. This week is their last remaining test, when they host Miami. The initial ranking indicates the committee learned from last year’s mistake: a team with no resume has less room for error. And a loss this week to Miami will put them in the same place as last year – on the outside of the playoffs, looking in.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 2 team
Best Case Scenario: 3 team
In the Playoff Teams
The game of the year takes place in the Big 12, with the Holy War between BYU and Utah. Utah has a flawless record this year, but truly was not tested until they beat Houston on October 24th. But they won, and are one of the three unbeaten teams. Utah is the home team, and is currently a 5.5-point favorite. Utah still has road games at Arizona and TCU, before their home finale against West Virginia.
For BYU, they had a monster win over Notre Dame, three weeks ago, but fell to the letdown spot the following week, losing at Central Florida in overtime. A road win over Utah would almost certainly cement the Cougars as a playoff team, and could propel them to the top-4. BYU closes the year with a home game against Baylor, at Kansas, and senior day coming against Cincinnati.
Still Alive Teams
The last few weeks for Texas Tech have been a bit of a roller coaster. A beatdown at Cincinnati handed the Red Raiders their first loss. But they followed that up with a win over a ranked Arizona team and changed quarterbacks to start Thomas Castellanos. Texas Tech benefits from only having one loss, and avoiding Utah and BYU on the schedule. While they have not been as impressive as last year’s team, there is a chance they finish the year at 11-1.
Unfortunately for Houston, their two losses come against teams ahead of them in the Big 12 – Utah and Texas Tech. The path for them to reach the conference championship game is unlikely. And even if they finish the year with four straight wins and finish 10-2, I don’t believe they have the resume of an at-large team. The Cougars currently rank 20th in ESPN’s FPI, and 22nd in Sagarin Rating.
Arizona is in a similar position as Houston: no bad losses, but the losses come against two teams ahead of them in conference play. They do have Utah remaining on the calendar, but a 10-2 finish likely does not propel them to an at-large berth. Arizona ranks 27th in ESPN’s FPI and 26th in Sagarin.
The best case scenario for the Big 12 has a huge domino that falls this weekend. It would require BYU to beat Utah close. Also, it would help if Notre Dame fell to Miami for their second loss of the year. Then, it would require both Utah and BYU, along with Texas Tech, to win out and finish the year at 11-1. This would lead to a rematch between BYU and Utah in the Big 12 title game. Given the committee’s history of not punishing the loser of a conference championship game, this could find three teams in the top-10 of the Big 12.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 2 teams
Best Case Scenario: 3 teams
In the Playoff Teams
No team needed a bye worse than the defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers. Yes, they are 8-1, but the last two weeks have not been pretty. They have gone to overtime the last two weeks after playing Ohio State close. Luckily for them, they came out of both victorious. After the bye, they host USC, before traveling to Washington, and finishing up their season at home against Purdue. The only way Indiana finishes the year 11-1 and does not make it to Indianapolis, is if UCLA and Ohio State both run the table.
UCLA is the lone unbeaten team in the Big Ten. And while their record is flawless, they likely cannot afford any mistakes. ESPN’s FPI has the Bruins ranked 28th, and Sagarin has them at 13th – far lower than their current rank. This likely dropped their rating, going from 5th in the AP Poll to 8th in the initial rankings. Make no mistake: there is no room for error for the Bruins. But the longer they remain unbeaten, the better odds they are a top-4 seed.
Still Alive Teams
Ohio State is in quite a conundrum. Quarterback Julian Sayin is out for the foreseeable future, and they did not look good in Luke Fahey’s first start. Yes, it was on the road, but USC is not known for having a stellar defense. Despite the name brand, we could see another Florida State incident in 2026: where the playoff committee has to judge a team based on their backup, and leaves them out of the playoffs.
Does Iowa have a chance to sneak in the playoffs? It is unlikely, but at 6-2, we will give the Hawkeyes their flowers. They are 21st in ESPN’s FPI rankings, and 15th in Sagarin. But if they run the table and go 10-2, their best win would come this week in a road win at Northwestern. I’m not sure if they moves the needle for the committee to get them in as an at-large team.
Any chance of a fourth team getting into the playoff likely falls on the shoulders of USC. The road loss at Wisconsin could make this a mute point, but if they win out – and that would include wins at Indiana and against UCLA – on top of a win over Ohio State, they could sneak in to the playoffs. But I would not hold my breath.
Oregon has an uphill climb, but they found themselves 23rd in the initial polls despite three losses. Can running the table over Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington get them in the playoffs? I’m not banking on it, but they are technically still alive.
Speaking of Northwestern, I’m not sure how likely it is they run the table to finish 10-2. But if they somehow managed to beat Iowa this week at home, along with road wins at Ohio State and Minnesota, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see them make the 12-team field.
For the Big Ten, I find it difficult to get more than three teams in the field, especially given the Julian Sayin news for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are currently on the outside looking in. UCLA being undefeated at 8-0, yet finds themselves 8th in the initial polls. Iowa, USC, and Oregon are all ranked, but the highest is just at 19th. Indiana has not looked great, and there are questions for them being 4th. This conference has many questions to answer over the next month.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 5 teams
Best Case Scenario: 6 teams
In the Playoff Teams
The SEC is truly a headache when trying to decipher and project who will make the playoff. They currently have 10 ranked teams in the initial playoff rankings. They are also likely the only conference to see teams get in with three regular season losses. Over the next three weeks, at the time of this writing, there will be three ranked matchups each week. There will be plenty of moving parts over the next month, but none more than the SEC.
Georgia is atop of the SEC and has looked like the best team. Yes, they have a blemish on their record with a home loss to Auburn. And they have a road win at Alabama and a neutral site win against Florida last week. But they still have three ranked conference games over the next three weeks. They have looked like the best team so far, and we will learn much more over the next three weeks. The Bulldogs are the safest bet, to me, to make the playoffs.
Alabama sits at 6-2, and has a big test this week when they play at LSU. They are a team that could get in with three wins. But they would lack a true signature win; their best win would be a road win in Lexington. And that might not age the best. Their best bet to get in would be to win against LSU, and keep their fate out of the committee’s hands.
Will Stein has put a jolt in the Kentucky football program we have not seen since 2013. Kentucky has a chance to hit 10 regular season wins for the first time since 1977. And now, they find themselves ranked 6th in the initial playoff rankings. But while they have a signature win over LSU, the brunt of their work is still ahead of them. Road games at Tennessee and Missouri, along with home games against Florida and in-state rival Louisville still remain. The metrics are also not on the Wildcats’ side. They rank 26th in ESPN’s FPI and 18th in Sagarin. In ESPN’s SP+, Kentucky ranks 34th, sandwiched between James Madison and North Dakota State.
I pronounced this Texas team dead after their loss against Florida. It was their second consecutive loss to an unranked team, losing to rival Oklahoma the week prior. They have two road games coming up against Missouri and LSU that will decide their fate; they are 3-3 with Arch Manning on the road, including two wins coming in overtime to unranked teams. A four-loss team has no chance making it, even if they play in the SEC.
Ole Miss has a signature win over LSU, but a blowout loss at Florida does not help the resume. Still, a head-to-head win proves huge in the eyes of the committee, if you are in the same tier in their eyes. If you can knock off Georgia this week, 10-2 is very much on the table and will surely get you in the playoffs. But going 9-3 has you potentially lumped in with other heavy hitters in the conference.
Still Alive Teams
Tennessee has a signature win over Alabama, but they will kick themselves for blowing the game over South Carolina. Now, you are coming off your bye to take on a ranked Kentucky team that could boost the resume. Another home game comes against LSU. If you win out and find yourselves at 10-2, with three ranked wins in conference, you are in the playoffs. But a loss puts you in company of a handful of other conference foes.
LSU’s losses have aged well, only losing on the road to Ole Miss and Kentucky, both teams who are currently ranked in the top-15. But where is the signature win for the Tigers? It isn’t against against Texas A&M, Clemson, or a Kamario Taylor-less Mississippi State team. Two home games against Alabama and Texas, along with a road game against Tennessee gives the Tigers opportunities to improve their resume. But going 1-2 in that stretch will kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
Missouri has arguably the easiest of the schedules of the SEC teams. They played a ranked Mississippi State team, and lost. They beat a Florida team that was coming off a candidate for a win of the year over Ole Miss. But they they got embarrassed by that same Ole Miss team weeks later. But they still have their way to play in. Their next three – against Texas, at Georgia, and hosting Kentucky – have plenty of potential. But otherwise, it will be another nice bowl game for Missouri.
South Carolina and Florida both already have three losses. South Carolina holds the head to head, with a convincing win in Gainesville. But both find themselves at the bottom of the pecking order, considering they lack the opportunities to boost their resume. Each have a single ranked matchup left on the schedule. The 2026 playoffs are bleak for both teams.
Let’s talk about a doomsday scenario for the SEC. Because that’s easier to do than best case scenario. Doomsday scenario for the SEC is every team in the top-10 (6) outside of your conference finishes with one regular season loss, Ohio State, Wake Forest, and Texas Tech all win out, and your conference continues to cannibalize one another. Then it would be a true mess and have people questioning: do we really think a 3-loss team deserves to be in with this many 1-loss teams? But thankfully, with how the 2026 season has gone, that seems farfetched.
Group of Six
Boise State (+100), New Mexico (+215) and UTSA (+600) are currently the only teams eligible to wager to make the playoffs courtesy of DraftKings. Boise State’s only blemish is a seven-point loss at Oregon to start the year, but two of their last three have been one possession games in conference. Oregon State is their last big test in the regular season, a team they will likely play again in the Pac 12 Championship.
Similar to Boise State, New Mexico’s lone loss came against a Power Four school – a seven-point loss at Oklahoma. Also like Boise State, their last two games have come by one possession, but both resulting in wins. One of those games came against a top school in the Mountain West in North Dakota State. If the Lobos win out, that means they would have beat the teams currently in second (Wyoming) and third (UNLV). Could that be enough to pass Boise State in the eyes of the committee, if they both go 11-1?
It is an uphill battle for UTSA. They also have just one loss on the year, but they did not keep it as close as Boise State or New Mexico, losing 30-6. They have also avoided the top of the American so far, as only three other teams have a winning record in conference play – North Texas, Memphis, and Army. The Roadrunners only play North Texas in that group, a game that will likely need style points to impress the committee.
Who do you see making the 2026 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!
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