2026 Week 5 College Football Best Bets

2026 Week 5 College Football Best Bets

Week four of the 2026 college football season was incredible. We had unexpected upsets, where Wake Forest traveled to Louisville and upset the Cardinals, while Wisconsin went into Happy Valley and upset Penn State. Six ranked matchups lived up to the hype – Florida announcing their arrival in the Jon Sumrall era. An almost comeback in Knoxville. A walkoff touchdown in Ann Arbor for an Iowa upset. LSU and Oregon handled business in ranked matchups, and Mississippi State held on to close the weekend. We are still figuring out these teams, and week five is another great schedule to do so. Here are my 2026 week 5 college football best bets.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of October 1st. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 4: 5-1 (+3.90 Units)

YTD: 13-8 (+4.02 Units)

More: How to Build Your Own Football Projections for 2026: A Guide

Navy (1-2) vs. Air Force (2-1)

Air Force -2.5; O/U 46.5

Under 46.5 (-105)

A classic service academy matchup, and the first of 2026. Troy Calhoun is in his 20th year as Air Force head coach. In the previous 38 meetings against Army and Navy, the average game total is 40.7 PPG. In the last ten matchups, that plumets to 31.9 PPG, with only one clearing this total – last year’s 31-34 loss at Navy. Through six combined games, the two teams have combined for 87 dropbacks at quarterback. For comparison, the team’s quarterbacks, excluding sacks, have 161 rush attempts alone. The clock should constantly be running in this one, and, as tradition, I will take the under in a service academy matchup.

Vanderbilt (3-1) vs. #2 Georgia (4-0)

Georgia -24.5; O/U 50.5

Georgia: 1st Half -13.5 (-125)

Kirby Smart has Georgia looking like the Bulldogs of old to start the year, outscoring FBS opponents 156-50. In the first half, that margin is 98-9. Vanderbilt’s five-star true freshman Jared Curtis is now entering his third start, but only second in away territory. Last week at Auburn, he completed 22 of 33 passes for 199 yards (6.0 YPA) with an interception. Jordan-Hare stadium is not an easy place to play, but neither is Athens, Georgia, with 90,000 people barking at you for 60 minutes. I think it’s a long day for the Commodores, but with Alabama on deck, I want to avoid the backdoor loss. I’m on the Bulldogs to be up by more than two scores at half on Saturday.

More: 2026 College Football Futures

#5 Ohio State (3-1) vs. #14 Iowa (4-0)

Iowa +14; O/U 45.5

Ohio State -14 (-115)

Since Ryan Day took over as Ohio State’s head coach in 2019, there have only been two games against Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes. Ohio State won both contests as the home team, 54-10 in 2022 and 35-7 in 2024.

Ohio State is a heavy road favorite in this ranked matchup. Since 2019, Ohio State has played nine ranked Big Ten teams as the road team. They are 6-3 in those games, and average 33.4 PPG. Iowa is coming off of a massive comeback win last week, going 91 yards in just 1:46 to upset Michigan in the Big House. Since 2021, Iowa has played 12 ranked games against Big Ten competition. They are averaging just 11.1 PPG, excluding special teams and defensive scores. In the four games against top-5 teams, that drops to 6 PPG. While Iowa has improved play with quarterback Hank Brown and receiver Tony Diaz, I think we still get the typical Iowa Hawkeyes against Ohio State: a lower scoring offensive outing. Back the Buckeyes.

More: 7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2026 College Football Playoff

Outright Underdogs (.5 units)

Week 4: 1-3 (+0.45 Units)

YTD: 2-11 (-2.85 Units)

Navy @ Air Force +142

The service academy games tend to be low scoring and close. Navy is 4-2 against fellow service academy teams since Brad Newberry took over as head coach, while Air Force has lost five of their last six. I’ll take the Midshipmen to win this one outright.

TCU vs. #10 BYU +205

This line makes no sense to me: TCU has lost to it’s only two Power Four opponents. Both are expected to be below average in a neutral site game against North Carolina, and at Central Florida on a backup quarterback. And yet, they host a top-10 BYU team and are only 6.5-point underdogs? Something smells fishy, and I’ll take the bite. Horned Frogs pick up a top-10 win this week.

What is your favorite 2026 week 5 college football best bets? Let me know on X!

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