2026 Week 3 College Football Best Bets
2026 Week 3 College Football Best Bets
Week two of the college football season was one for the books. While only one ranked matchup, we had it all last week. A huge upset, as Oregon went into Stillwater and left with a loss to Oklahoma State, a week after the Cowboys lost to Tulsa by two scores. Michigan showed they should have never lost their place in the ranking, securing a top-10 win over Oklahoma. And the finale of the weekend saw a top-five matchup, where Ohio State took on Texas. While the Buckeyes led for the first three quarters, Texas completed the largest comeback against a top-5 team in college football history.
Week three has the potential to repeat last week. While no top-five matchup, one of the most anticipated games of the year takes place in the SEC. Lane Kiffin and LSU returns to Oxford to take on the Ole Miss Rebels. SMU and Louisville square off in a pivotal battle in the SEC. Plenty of conference games will fill the weekend. Here are my 2026 week 3 college football best bets.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of September 17th. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Week 2: 3-2 (+0.85 Units)
YTD: 6-4 (+1.55 Units)
More: How to Build Your Own Football Projections for 2026: A Guide
(Friday) #5 Miami (FL) (2-0) vs. Wake Forest (2-0)
Wake Forest +20.5; O/U 55.5
Wake Forest: Team Total Under 17.5 (-125)
This stat comes from the great Chris Fallica of Fox Sports and the Bear Bets Pod: in the last three years when Miami is favored by 20 or more points over an FBS team, they have allowed 58 points in seven games (8.3 PPG). They have not allowed over 14 points in that span. This rang true in their opener at Stanford, where they allowed just six points. Wake’s starting quarterback, Gio Lopez, has two starts against ranked opponents in his career. When playing for North Carolina, the Tar Heels lost to #16 Virginia 16-17, and when he was at South Alabama, the Jaguars lost 10-42 to LSU. I believe they fail to clear this number again, and will be on Wake’s team total under.
More: 2026 College Football Futures
Kansas (1-1) vs. Arizona State (1-1)*
Arizona State -5.5; O/U 50.5
Under 50.5 (-110)
* Game played at Wembley Stadium in London, England
A Big 12 conference opener for both teams kicks off across the pond. For the first time since 1988, a college football game will be played in London.
We have seen a number of games go overseas to start the year. Since 2016, we have seen five matchups be played internationally between Power Four programs. The average game total for those games is just 41 PPG, with one clearing 50 points. Arizona State’s game totals last year in conference play averaged 46.9 PPG, while Kansas averaged 54.9. Both lost long time starters at quarterback to the transfer portal and the NFL. Given the travel in the middle of the season, I’m on this game to fall to the under.
UTEP (1-1) vs. #19 Michigan (2-0)
Michigan -34.5; O/U 48.5
Michigan -34.5 (-118)
This is a scary spread, considering the Wolverines have scored just 30 points all year. But UTEP has struggled mightily against Power Four opponents under Scotty Walden. In four games against the Power Four, UTEP has been outscored 174-17. This is a similar situation as last year: Michigan’s offense was off to a slow start, scoring only 47 against Oklahoma and a good New Mexico team. Then in week three, they put on 63 against Central Michigan. I think this one gets the Michigan offense on track, while the defense continues to handle business. I’ll take Michigan and the points.
#12 USC (2-0) vs. Rutgers (0-2)
Rutgers +21.5; O/U 59.5
Under 59.5 (-108)
Rutgers: Team Total Under 17.5 (-110)
USC heads east to take on Rutgers, the week before hosting Oregon in a pivotal Big Ten game. Greg Schiano is in his second stint at Rutgers. Since that stint began in 2020, Rutgers has played 15 games against ranked opponents. They are averaging 14.2 PPG in that span, scoring over 17 in three of 15 and just once in the last 13.
Since joining the Big Ten, USC has averaged just 25.8 PPG in the six away games traveling east. They have not cleared 33 points in any contest. With a big game against Oregon on deck that will have playoff implications, I believe we will see more of the underclassmen get playing time later in the second half. I think this one is more low scoring than the oddsmakers, and will be playing the under in two separate ways.
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Outright Underdogs (.5 units)
Week 2: 1-3 (-0.80 Units)
YTD: 1-5 (-1.80 Units)
Coastal Carolina @ Delaware +164
Last year at Missouri State, Ryan Beard was 4-2 in road games, and 4-1 in Group of Six road games. He’s now at Coastal where he played West Virginia close in Morgantown in the season opener. I’m on the Chanticleers to win this one outright.
North Texas @ Texas State +124
The Mean Green were the lone hit in last week’s Outright Underdogs section. They are slight dogs on the road against an in-state opponent. I like what this offense can do with Tayven Jackson and Jaheim White, and will take the Mean Green to win this one outright.
Colorado @ Northwestern +145
The Big Ten is just 3-7 against P4, non-conference opponents through the first two weeks. For comparison, the SEC is 8-2 in such matchups. Colorado already beat a Power Four team on the road this year, knocking off Georgia Tech. I think they do it again in the last game before Northwestern opens their new stadium. Back the Buffs.
What is your favorite 2026 week 3 college football best bets? Let me know on X!
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