2026 Week 1 College Football Best Bets
2026 Week 1 College Football Best Bets
We are finally here. After eight long months, we have a full college football weekend on deck. The appetizer was great last week, where we had eight games on Saturday. North Carolina won in Dublin, North Dakota State wins in their first ever FBS game, and Memphis won a battle of two of the Group of Six’s bests. But from Thursday through Monday, we have meaningful football. The regular season is finally hear, and these are my 2026 week 1 college football best bets.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of September 3rd. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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(Friday) UTEP vs. #10 Oklahoma
Oklahoma -40.5; O/U 51.5
Oklahoma -40.5 (-110)
John Mateer is healthy for the Sooners, and I expect him to look like he did prior to the Red River Rivalry game. He completed just 55.5% of his attempts, and his touchdown rate (3.3%) matched his interception rate. Now he faces a UTEP team that allowed over 30 points in their last five Conference USA games. They do return four starters on defense, but is that worth much when you jump up in competition? Especially playing that poorly last year? I’m not too worried for this Oklahoma offense.
UTEP has zero starters returning on offense, and welcome four transfers to their offensive line. I think Oklahoma’s defense will tee off on this fresh, new face offense in UTEP. Oklahoma wins this one, big.
(Friday) Fresno State vs. #14 USC (1-0)
USC -22.5; O/U 51.5
Over 51.5 (-115)
Since taking over the Trojans in 2022, Lincoln Riley’s offense has lit up scoreboards early in nonconference play. Against FBS opponents, USC is averaging 56.9 PPG against Group of Six teams. In those eight contests, the game total has averaged 73.4 PPG, with their second game of the year averaging 69 PPG. This will be a theme of this week: the power schools beating up on the lower level competition, and putting up big numbers on the scoreboard. I don’t necessarily believe USC can clear the number on their own, but Fresno State will do their part. I’m on the over for this Friday night matchup.
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Kent State vs. South Carolina
South Carolina -35.5; O/U 53.5
South Carolina -35.5 (-112)
Mike Carney turned around Kent State in his first year, taking the program to a 5-7 record after going 1-23 the two years prior. But last year, we saw how outclassed the Golden Flashes were against the Power Four, being outscored 24-172. LaNorris Sellers is back for the Gamecocks, and welcomes a new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles from TCU. Josh Hoover and the TCU offense thrived with Briles, averaging 31.8 PPG over the last three years. I think Sellers and South Carolina can name their number in this one, and I’ll take the points with the Gamecocks.
(Sunday) #24 Louisville vs. #9 Ole Miss (Nashville, TN)
Ole Miss -6.5; O/U 55.5
Louisville +6.5 (-102)
Under 55.5 (-112)
Ole Miss had a roller coast of an offseason, starting last postseason. And while Rebel fans were excited making the semi-finals last year, this is a brand new season.
Louisville welcomes Lincoln Kienolz from Ohio State. And while he does not have the experience like other transfer quarterbacks before they commit to Brohm, he did compete for the Ohio State job a year ago. His running mate in the backfield, Isaac Brown, should help take some of the load off Kienholz as he navigates through a new receiving core.
Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm and his coaching staff has an entire offseason to prepare for Pete Golding and his Heisman hopeful quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss. Charlie Weiss Jr. left town to hop on the Lane Train in Baton Rouge, leaving co-coordinators in Oxford. Similar to Kienholz and Louisville, Ole Miss welcomes plenty of new pass catchers to town. I think this one will be a great game, but more low scoring. I’m taking the Cardinals and the under in this Sunday night, primetime matchup.
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Outright Underdogs (.5 units)
South Dakota State (FCS) @ Northwestern +440
Northwestern has a great new stadium they are opening this year. But not this weekend. And they get one of the best at the FCS level, who just hung 70 on Stetson last week. We have seen Aidan Chiles struggle against lower competition early in the season. I’m on the Jack Rabbits to pull the upset in Evanston.
#24 Louisville vs. #9 Ole Miss +220
A top-10 team has lost in Week 1 in each of the last five years. Most are playing cupcakes, but not the Rebels. I’m on Louisville to pull the upset in this neutral site game.
What is your favorite 2026 week 1 college football best bets? Let me know on X!
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