7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2026 College Football Playoff

7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2026 College Football Playoff

We are just days away from the start of the 2026-27 college football season. We are year three of the 12-team format, but we have seen how crazy the college football landscape can turn in three months.

In the first year, we saw only eight of the 11 Power Four schools were ranked in the preseason AP poll. SMU, Indiana, and Arizona State were all unranked, with only SMU receiving votes in preseason poll. Indiana and Arizona State were both expected to finish at the bottom of their respective conference.

In year two, of the 12 best preseason odds via DraftKings, only five teams made the postseason. Teams like Penn State (-330 preseason odds), Texas (-320), Clemson (-200), and Notre Dame (-180) all fell well below expectations.

If you followed this article last year, you received great value with Texas A&M (+220) cashing, along with the eventual national champion Indiana Hoosiers (+500) making the playoffs at plus-odds.

The current odds via DraftKings Sportsbook to make the 2026 College Football Playoff would have these teams in the 12-team playoff (bold teams have the best odds for their respective conference):

1. Notre Dame (FBS Independent; -800)

2. Ohio State (Big Ten; -360)

3. Indiana (Big Ten; -350)

4. Oregon (Big Ten; -320)

5. Miami (FL) (ACC; -280)

6. Georgia (SEC; -240)

7. Texas Tech (Big 12; -200)

8. Texas (SEC; -200)

t-9. Alabama (SEC; +154)

t-9. Texas A&M (SEC; +154)

11. LSU (SEC; +160)

12. Boise State (Pac-12; +450)

Who are some teams that could create some chaos and surprise fans by taking a seat at the table? Here are my seven favorite dark horse teams to make the 2026 College Football Playoff.

More: How to Build Your Own Football Projections for 2026: A Guide

#10 Oklahoma (+210)

Why Oklahoma will make the CFP:

The Sooners have the 12th best odds to make the College Football Playoff, so it feels like cheating having them here. But I like them over some teams ahead of them. John Mateer was one of the top transfers in the 2024 cycle, but fell short of expectations in his first year in Norman. He did rush back from injury to play in the rivalry game against Texas, and he never fully recovered. After the Auburn game, Mateer finished the year completing 55.5% of his attempts, 3.3% touchdown rate to match a 3.3% interception rate, and 6.88 YPA. He has bulked up this offseason and appears fully healthy. I expect to see a much better Mateer in year two with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in Norman, his fourth overall.

The Oklahoma defense has shaped into the vision Brent Venables had when arriving in Norman. The scoring defense has improved in each of his three years: 49th in 2023 (23.5 PPG), 29th in 2024 (21.5 PPG), and 7th last year (15.5 PPG). They return their leading tackler in Kip Lewis at linebacker, and leader in sacks with Taylor Wein. There are gaps to fill in, but they have the youth and capabilities to step up. This defense could anchor another playoff run.

Why Oklahoma will fall short of the CFP:

Oklahoma has a history of productive running backs. Adrian Peterson. DeMarco Murray. Joe Mixon. Semaje Perine. Trey Sermon. Plenty of running backs have come through and transitioned to the NFL. Is that the returning junior Xavier Robinson? Through 19 career games, he has 132 carries for 5 YPC.

Unlike some teams on this list, Oklahoma has a daunting schedule. Road contests at Michigan, Georgia, and Florida loom large. The neutral site game against Texas is also a marquee game for the Sooners. Oklahoma would have to win at least one of these games, potentially two, while going perfect the rest of the year, to make the playoffs.

 

#16 Michigan (+250)

Why Michigan will make the CFP:

Early on, Michigan appeared to be facing a disaster of an offseason. Sherone Moore faced charges for off the field decisions, and ultimately was fired. Yet somehow, someway, Michigan might have left the dance with the prettiest girl at the ball. Kyle Whittingham comes over from Utah, along with offensive coordinator Jason Beck. They have experience with mobile quarterbacks, like Devon Dampier, to hopefully get Bryce Underwood’s career back on track. They return four starters on the offensive line that allowed just 20 sacks to Underwood a season ago. If transfer receivers JJ Buchanan and Jaime Ffench can step up to be a running mate to Andrew Marsh, this offense could be dangerous.

Why Michigan will fall short of the CFP:

It’s an easy scapegoat, but can Kyle Whittingham remove the stench that is over the program after the Sherrone Moore debacle? The program fell off hard after coach Jim Harbaugh departed for the NFL.

Michigan’s schedule can either help as a tiebreaker, or rule them out of the playoffs completely. Road games at Oregon and Ohio State, along with home games against Oklahoma and Indiana, propels their schedule as one of the toughest in the country. Similar to Oklahoma, winning one of those four could get them in the playoffs. Two will surely get them in if they finish 10-2. But can they do it?

 

#15 BYU (+330)

Why BYU will make the CFP:

Sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier was a positive on the ground last year. He also did not get a full year to prepare for the starting role, as he did not enroll until June. Despite all that, he led the Cougars to a 11-1 regular season record and a trip to the Big 12 Championship. He did struggle against Texas Tech, as the Cougars got outscored 14-63 in their two matchups. Bachmeier will have some help, as the Cougars return Big 12 OPOY running back LJ Martin.

Luckily for the Cougars, they avoid the Red Raiders this year in the regular season. Instead, they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in mid-October. The conference slate is bearable – as long as you can hold your own at TCU and Utah.

Head coach Kelani Sitake was flirting with the Penn State opening this offseason, but remains in Provo. He is 21-3 in the regular season over the last two years, and 15-3 in conference play. If you continue that trend, we should expect the Cougars to be in Dallas in early December.

Why BYU will fall short of the CFP:

The big, bad wolf of the Big 12 that gave the Cougars fits last year: Texas Tech. While the Red Raiders were involved with controversy this offseason with quarterback Brendan Sorsby, they still return the most talented roster in the Big 12. They avoid the Red Raiders in the regular season, but a matchup in Dallas will have the Cougars playing a road game with their CFP opportunity on the line.

I mentioned how Bachmeier was a positive on the ground. He was not as impactful throwing the ball. Now, he loses his top three weapons from last year, leaving LJ Martin as the only returnee with over 20 receptions from the 2025 BYU team. They only have one transfer receiver – Oregon’s Kyler Kasper – via the portal. He has six receptions over the course of four years. This could be a very one dimensional team this fall.

#19 SMU (+350)

Why SMU will make the CFP:

Miami is the juggernaut of the ACC. But they have never won the conference. Enter the Mustangs, who avoid Miami on their schedule. Road games to start the year at Florida State and Louisville appear to be the most difficult on their schedule. They are one of the many ACC teams to play Notre Dame this year, but have the opportunity to host.

Rhett Lashlee has done a phenomenal job as SMU transitioned from the American to the ACC. In the first two years in the ACC, the Mustangs are 19-5 with Lashlee, and 14-2 in conference play. The defense has ranked in the top-35 in both years in ACC play. He was a popular name coming up in coaching hires, including the Penn State opening. Lashlee can get this team back to the playoff.

Why SMU will fall short of the CFP:

While Kevin Jennings returns at quarterback – hopefully at full health – the Mustangs have plenty of new pass catchers for the senior to target. Yamir Knight returns for SMU, where he caught 54 receptions for 637 yards and four scores. Jalen Cooper also returns for his sophomore year. Everyone else, however, is new. Running back Kendrick Raphael (Cal), tight end Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M), and receiver Jalen Hale (Alabama) are all new faces in Dallas. Will someone step up with Knight to form a one-two punch for Jennings?

The SMU defense was exposed at times last year. Their two out of conference losses came against Baylor, where the defense allowed 48 points, and at TCU, where they allowed 35 points. In those two losses combined, Sawyer Robertson and Josh Hoover combined to complete 62.2% of their attempts for 819 yards (9.1 YPA), nine touchdowns and one interception. These were two of the three best quarterbacks they played, along with Miami’s Carson Beck. They also allowed 38 points to Cal and freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, where he completed 31 of 40 attempts for 330 yards and four touchdowns. My point: this secondary was burned a year ago. They return three members of the secondary, but will rely on transfers. If this secondary struggles like they did last year, the playoffs will remain a distant dream for the Mustangs.

#18 Penn State (+360)

 

Why Penn State will make the CFP:

It feels as if there is one team in contention of a CFP bid that benefits from a weak schedule. Penn State avoids last year’s big three conference foes in Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. If you can manage to go 2-1 at Michigan, at Washington, and hosting USC, there is a real possibility for 11-1 regular season record. That should get you an auto-bid.

Rocco Becht comes over from Iowa State with a career 26-13 record. He has plenty of experience, both playing and with offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser. Becht’s top four pass catchers from a year ago are joining him in Happy Valley. Penn State should have a quarterback advantage in all but a couple of games this year, and even those will be toss ups.

Why Penn State will fall short of the CFP:

The conference as a whole is a major step up in competition from the Big 12. Matt Campbell brings over 24 of their 40 transfers from Iowa State. Can a team that went 8-4 last year in a weaker Big 12 manage to have the required success in a top-two conference?

I mentioned the schedule being one of the easier in the Big Ten and SEC. Given this, there is no room for error. A 10-2 record this fall likely leaves the Nittany Lions in the same territory as BYU, Vanderbilt, and Utah a season ago: outside the playoffs looking in.

#24 Louisville (+550)

Why Louisville will make the CFP:

The way the schedule breaks for Louisville, their season boils down to two games: the opener, a neutral site game against Ole Miss, and the home opener for conference play against SMU. There is no Miami or Clemson on the Cardinals’ schedule for 2026. Road contests at NC State, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Kentucky will be tricky. But as things stand now, I would expect Louisville to favored in all four. This opens up the Cardinals’ chance to make their second ACC Championship game, the first since 2023.

While the schedule breaking right for the Cardinals is a plus, that isn’t sustainable year over year. What is sustainable is having one of the better coaches in the conference in Jeff Brohm. The Cardinals have a regular season record of 26-10 (16-8 in ACC play) since returning to his alma mater.

Why Louisville will fall short of the CFP:

Brohm has done well with the transfer portal quarterbacks. Jack Plummer, Tyler Shough, and Miller Moss all entered Louisville with plenty of experience. However, this year’s transfer portal quarterback is Lincoln Kienholz, who does not have the experience of the previously mentioned. The redshirt junior transfers from Ohio State, where he saw just 36 attempts over the last three years. It was rumored that he was in a close competition with Julian Sayin a year ago, but he never let go of the starting role. Louisville had a heavy transfer portal class, but none will be more important than their quarterback play. Can Kienholz lead Louisville to their ceiling of the College Football Playoff?

Given the schedule, the conference record has to improve for Brohm and company. After a 7-1 record in ACC in his first year at Louisville, the Cardinals have followed it up with a 5-3 and 4-4 record in conference play. Obviously, if you want to make the playoffs, you cannot have these loses in the ACC. Especially with this schedule, this leaves you unranked at season’s end, rather than sniffing the playoffs.

 

New Mexico (+1300)

Why New Mexico will make the CFP:

Jason Eck has done a great job as head coach. His 35-17 record at Idaho and New Mexico is impressive, along with his 24-8 conference record. For reference, the last time New Mexico had a nine-win regular season was in 1997.

The Group of Six conferences were realigned once again this offseason. Boise State is no longer in the Mountain West, and this conference appears to be a four-team race. And of those four teams, the Lobos host North Dakota State and UNLV. Their road trip against Hawaii comes off a bye. The conference schedule favors well for the Lobos.

The New Mexico defense should be a strength of this team. In Eck’s first year at New Mexico, the Lobos’ defensive scoring improved from 130th nationally (38.0 PPG) to 46th (22.3 PPG). This was the best team defending the rush last year, and the Mountain West DPOY, Jaxton Eck, returns for his junior year. There is continuity with the coaching staff, along with seven starters on offense, that are looking to build on a strong 9-3 regular season in 2025.

Why New Mexico will fall short of the CFP:

There has been frustration for returning quarterback, Jack Layne, as he returns from injury. He set the school record for completion percentage a year ago. However, there is no timeline for his return from elbow surgery. His backup, Luke Moga, is a transfer from Oregon. He does lack experience, with only five career attempts entering his redshirt sophomore season. Moga does offer some mobility under center, as he was a former track athlete in high school.

While the Lobos return four of five starters on the offensive line, there were concerns upfront last year. Layne was sacked 31 times a season ago. Three of the four linemen were underclassmen a year ago, so there is hope for a jump as they age. But given the injury concern to start the year under center, it will be crucial to keep the quarterback – whichever is starting for the Lobos – clean this fall.

Who is your favorite darkhorse contender to make the 2026 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!

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