2025 NFL Week 12 Best Bets
2025 NFL Week 12 Best Bets
Week 11 was one for the books across the NFL. Of the 15 games from Thursday to Monday, there were five teams who won the game off a game-winning score, tied for the most ever. There were also seven teams who won despite trailing at some point in the 4th quarter, the most since Week 12 of 2022. What will we have in store this week? Here are my week 12 best bets in the NFL.
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Week 11: 2-1-1 (+0.90 units)
Year to Date: 24-16-1 (+6.30 units)
New York Giants (2-9) vs. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Detroit -10.5; O/U 50.5
Detroit -10.5 (-110)
The Lions have lost 11 regular season games since the start of 2023. They are a perfect 10-0 ATS coming off a loss, with the opportunity to extend that streak this week. I touched last week on Jameis Winston getting a bump in his first game with a new team. The second game with his new team in his last two stops, Winston has led an offense that scores just 10 points, both times. I believe this is a spot the Lions get right and win by two or more scores.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
Dallas +3.5; O/U 47.5
Under 47.5 (-105)
The Eagles are night and day between offense and defense. The offense averages just 5.1 yards per play, while the defense allows just 5.2 YPP. There is plenty of noise in the locker room despite being 8-2 and winning four straight after the Thursday night loss. Now, they will be without a stalwart on the offensive line in Lane Johnson. Dallas acquired key defensive pieces at the deadline in defensive lineman Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson. I think this one highlights the afternoon slate, but the scoreboard is not as active as many would hope. I’m on the under in this NFC East showdown.
Carolina Panthers (6-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
San Francisco -7; O/U 49.5
Carolina: Team Total Under 20.5 (-115)
Last Sunday’s 30-27 point overtime win over the Falcons was the 5th time since Dave Canales took over as head coach where Bryce Young and the Panthers scored 30+ points. Three of those five games came against the Falcons, one was the 2024 regular season finale. In the three games immediately following a 30-plus point performance with Canales and Young, the Panthers average 13.3 PPG. Two of the three games resulted in losses by at least four scores; the other was a 13-6 point win over the Jets. In non-NFC South games in Young’s starts, the Panthers fell under the 20-point total in nine of 14 games. Of the five, four were at home, and the other was against Arizona in the opener, a team they played last year. I expect the Panthers to fall under this total to cap off Week 12.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 10: 0-2 (-1.00 units)
Year to Date: 3-14 (-5.23 units)
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +124
Chicago has won five of their seven games where they were trailing with under two minutes left. Despite being 7-3, the Bears have a (-6) point differential. Rodgers is 24-5 all-time against the Bears. I’m on the Steelers to win this as a slight underdog.
Arizona vs. Jacksonville +124
Jacksonville is coming off a 29-point win over the Chargers at home, and now must head west to take on Arizona. This is an offense that can put up points with veteran backup Jacoby Brissett. I’m on the Cardinals to pull the slight upset at home.
What are some of your favorite Week 12 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
