2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 12
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 12
Just two weeks remain in the college football regular season. Last week’s results shook up the college football playoff committee’s rankings, as Texas lost handedly to Georgia, while Oklahoma secured a road win over Alabama. Others handled business, but some top teams experience scares and saw their playoff chances flash before their eyes. For the Group of Six, we saw another top team fall to shake up the standings. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 12.
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 11
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 10
More: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025)
2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
First College Football Playoff Ranking
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 1 teams
In the Playoff Teams
Miami still finds themselves atop the ACC for the college football playoff rankings, but it is still a longshot to make the playoffs. They have to climb three more spots for an at-large bid since they are likely out of the ACC Championship game.
Still Alive Teams
Georgia Tech’s season comes down to this week against Pittsburgh. While the Georgia game is massive for the regular season finale, playing in the ACC Championship game seems like their best path to the playoffs. And a win this week over Pittsburgh locks them in for a trip to Charlotte.
Virginia handled business against Duke to eliminate the Blue Devils from any outside chance of an ACC Championship berth. Now, they benefit from an off week coming up while two one-loss ACC teams face off this week. That will eliminate one from the ACC Championship picture. Now, just handle business against in-state rival Virginia Tech and you play for the ACC Championship the first weekend of December.
Pittsburgh lost against Notre Dame last Saturday. And while Pat Narduzzi claimed they could lose by 100 and it would not matter, he was right. If Pittsburgh handles business the next two weeks against Georgia Tech and Miami, and if SMU or Virginia lose once, the Panthers are in the ACC Championship game for a shot at the playoffs.
Louisville suffered back-to-back losses to wrack up their second and third losses on the year. This eliminates them from ACC Championship contention, thus, eliminating them from the playoffs.
The ACC is taking shape, with the likely ACC Championship scenario being Virginia playing either Georgia Tech or Pittsburgh. SMU has an outside shot of making the title game, but needs to win out and have some help. This is still a one-bid league, barring absolute chaos and Miami receiving an at-large bid.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 11 (2025)
#10 Notre Dame (8-2)
Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh for their last true road test. Now, all the Irish have to do is beat two 3-7 ACC teams in Syracuse and Stanford. Notre Dame now has their eyes on hosting a first round game.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 team
In the Playoff Teams
Texas Tech thumped Central Florida on senior day to move to 10-1. With the Red Raiders on bye this week, they have a long trip to Morgantown next week for a spot in the Big 12 Championship. They are currently hosting a playoff game, but there is a chance for the Red Raiders to move into a first-round bye.
Still Alive Teams
BYU dominated TCU last week at home, outgaining the Horned Frogs by 150 yards in the 44-13 win. The Cougars now find themselves just one spot outside the top-10. They have a big game this week against Cincinnati. Failure to win this one eliminates any hope for an at-large bid, and BYU would no longer control their fate on their path to the Big 12 Championship. This week’s game is a must win for the Cougars.
Utah dominated Baylor in Waco last week. Now, they are just a couple of spots outside the top-10. Unfortunately for the Utes, they are behind Arizona State and BYU for a spot in the Big 12 Championship. They would need BYU to lose to Cincinnati and Central Florida, and Arizona State to lose one of their last two. Or, if BYU loses once and a team in the top-10 to lose again. Their best bet is an at-large berth at this point.
Cincinnati’s loss to Arizona last week ruins any shot of the Bearcats reaching the Big 12 Championship game. Even if they win out, they would need BYU and every other 5-2 team to lose out to play Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship game.
Texas Tech has a chance to get a first-round bye, and either BYU or Utah has a shot at an at-large berth. While one team from the Big 12 seems the most likely outcome, there is a chance they get two teams in the 12-team field.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Ohio State and Indiana are locked in to the playoffs. Both are likely going to receive a bye for the first round, regardless of the championship game outcome.
Oregon routed Minnesota last Friday night. But it was always the last two weeks for the Ducks: home against USC and at Washington. Currently, the Ducks would host a playoff game. This is likely best case scenario. But with no wins standing out, outside of a game winning field goal over Iowa on the road, they need these last two wins to secure their standing.
Still Alive Teams
USC rallied from 14-down, outscoring Iowa 26-7 the last 40 minutes of the game. Now, the Trojans head north to take on their last ranked opportunity of the year. Similar to the sentiment over the last few weeks, but the Trojans must win out for any hope of making the playoff. They are currently 10.5-point underdogs on the road against Oregon.
Michigan had a scare in Wrigley last weekend, needing a game winning field goal to beat Northwestern. Now they travel to College Park for their last road game of the year to face Maryland. They must take care of business before The Game next week against Ohio State. And the Wolverines still may need some help around the country.
Barring any upsets in the SEC, it appears the Big Ten will be a three-bid league. Time is running out for any major moves, and both teams fighting for that fourth bid have been in close games recently they were expected to win.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 5 teams
Best Case Scenario: 6 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Texas A&M had the scare of the weekend, finding themselves trailing South Carolina 30-3 at home before scoring 28 unanswered. The comeback will go down as the largest in school history.
A&M now faces Samford for their annual matchup against a FCS opponent before heading to Austin to face off against in-state rival Texas. A&M, along with Ohio State, and Indiana, appears to be locked into a playoff spot.
While one team fell at home as they hosted a ranked conference foe, the Georgia Bulldogs won convincingly. Now, the Bulldogs find themselves as a top-4 seed, and may not even need to play in the SEC Championship game to stay there. They are finished with conference play, going 7-1, including 3-1 against ranked teams. They can secure another top-15 ranked win if they beat Georgia Tech on a neutral site game in the regular season finale. Currently, Georgia is one of four teams off betting boards to make the playoffs, along with Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M.
Ole Miss found themselves trailing Florida entering the fourth quarter, but won 34-24 at home. Kewan Lacy rushed for 224 yards and scored three times against the Gators. Ole Miss is off this week before the Egg Bowl in Starkville. The Rebels would need to win at Mississippi State, and Texas A&M and Alabama both to lose if they wanted a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship. Otherwise, the next time we will see the Rebels will be a home game in the playoff.
Oklahoma secured a must-win game against Alabama last week in Tuscaloosa. Now, they control their own destiny for the playoffs. Two home games against Missouri and LSU separate the Sooners from their first playoff appearance under Brent Venables.
Alabama nearly doubled up the Sooners in yards, but found themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard. While they have FCS Eastern Illinois this week, they find themselves in a must-win scenario in the Iron Bowl when they travel to Auburn. The Crimson Tide are 5-4 in road environments under Kalen DeBoer.
Still Alive Teams
Vanderbilt still needs to pass four teams to qualify for an at-large bid. Beating Kentucky at home and Tennessee on the road likely will not be enough to jump into the top-10. The Commodores will need some help to make their first playoff appearance. Otherwise, expect them to play in one of the more highly anticipated bowl games among non-playoff teams.
I was of the belief that Texas had to win out for any hope to get in the 12-team playoff field. Not only did they lose to Georgia, they got routed. At three losses, I don’t believe they will be in the field – even if they beat Texas A&M at home next week.
Currently, I believe there are two teams from the SEC locked in the playoffs – Texas A&M and Georgia. There are three teams who should be in the field, but one loss could make things messy for any of Ole Miss, Oklahoma, or Alabama. Oklahoma is the only team with two home games remaining, while the other two have their week 14 game on the road.
Group of Six
Tulane finds themselves as the first Group of Six representative. The Green Wave will need to win out and knock off one of the three remaining one loss American teams in the championship game to make the playoff. They did schedule three Power Four opponents in their non-conference, securing wins over Duke and Northwestern. But the 35-point loss to Ole Miss, along with the 18-point loss at UTSA, could doom Tulane in the end.
North Texas is still very much in the running, likely as the second highest American team. They hold a head-to-head over Navy, which now looms large. Handle these next two and see where things stand for a spot in the American Championship.
James Madison is still a factor in the Group of Six conversation. The Dukes have benefitted from the American cannibalizing each other, while handling business in their own conference. JMU has outscored conference opponents 281-111 over seven games, and appear to know they need all the style points they can get. Their strength of schedule metric could hold them back from the conversation, as their loss to Louisville has not aged well over the last few weeks.
Navy secured a huge win last week as they knocked off South Florida. They are atop the American with a road trip to Memphis on deck. After that, the Midshipmen still have Army the following week, which does not count as a conference game.
South Florida lost last week to Navy, likely eliminating them from the American Championship game. Thus, the playoffs are out of reach.
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