2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 10
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 10
While Week 10 saw no true, huge upsets, there was plenty of shifting across the college football landscape. Some teams lost “elimination” games this past week. Others no longer control their destiny. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 10.
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 9
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 8
More: Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025)
2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
Another change we will see in November’s first playoff ranking reveal is how much the committee values the new schedule strength metric. Last year saw plenty of discussion on whether an 11-1 Indiana Hoosiers team should receive an at-large berth, despite playing a favorable Big Ten schedule and no Power Four non-conference opponents. Or should a 9-3 Alabama, South Carolina, or Ole Miss team get in from playing a more difficult schedule, despite taking more losses to inferior opponents.
First College Football Playoff Ranking
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
In the Playoff Teams
By default, the Virginia Cavaliers are now atop the ACC as the last remaining unbeaten team in league play. While no games appear to be gimmes in this conference, they do have a very manageable last three games.
Still Alive Teams
Louisville survived against Virginia Tech, although it was not pretty. Still, an ugly win is better than the fate of the next two teams. Louisville has three remaining home games and a road game at SMU. There are now five teams in the ACC with just one loss in conference play, all staring up at Virginia. Of the group, Louisville holds the best win, as they won in Miami. But it will likely come down to the ACC Championship game for the Cardinals to secure a playoff spot.
Georgia Tech suffered their first loss of the season last week, losing 48-36 to North Carolina State. The more worrisome part is how poorly the Yellow Jackets’ defense looked, allowing 583 total yards in the game. Haynes King accounted for 511 of Georgia Tech’s 559, but it was not enough. A win at Georgia might be required if they want to make their first appearance in the College Football Playoff.
Miami suffers another loss in conference play, and their playoff hopes are likely on life support. They seem too far gone from an at-large bid with no eye-popping opportunities remaining. And as mentioned above, there are five teams with just one loss in conference play. Miami has two, with both coming to teams now ahead of them in the standings.
Pittsburgh finds themselves in a great position in the initial playoff ranking reveal. A head to head loss to Louisville hurts their chances of a playoff berth. But the Panthers making the switch to Mason Heintschel at quarterback has Pitt on a five game winning streak after starting 2-2. Pitt can play spoiler, as their last three after the bye come against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami.
The top of the ACC took losses they could not afford. As a result, Virginia finds themselves as the highest ranked team – at 14. Last week, I believed the ACC was going to get two teams in the college football playoff. Now, I see them as a one-bid conference.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 9 (2025)
#10 Notre Dame (5-2)
Notre Dame won by two scores against Boston College. They now should find themselves in the playoff picture and control their own destiny. However, it will be interesting to see how the playoff committee views Notre Dame and Miami, considering they already played earlier this year with Miami winning. Notre Dame’s losses – Miami and Texas A&M – look better than the two losses Miami has on their resume. Timing also matters; Notre Dame lost their first two games, while Miami is just 1-2 in their last three with the win coming against Stanford. This is one to watch as the first playoff rankings are revealed Tuesday.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 team
In the Playoff Teams
BYU and Texas Tech square off in the matchup of the year in the Big 12. This is a must win for Texas Tech; if they lose, there is a chance they miss the Big 12 title game. Two losses for the Red Raiders will likely eliminate them from an at-large bid. If BYU wins, they all but secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. Cincinnati would be the only other conference team with just one conference loss, and BYU would hold head-to-head wins over two of the two-loss teams in Tech and Utah. For what it’s worth, Texas Tech opened as a 10-point favorite at home.
Still Alive Teams
Cincinnati suffered a big time loss to Utah last week in Salt Lake City, 45-14. Brendan Sorsby had his worst game of the year in the loss. Still, the Bearcats are beside Texas Tech as a one-loss Big 12 team. But now Cincinnati is unranked in the committee’s eyes. Meanwhile, the committee has Utah four spots above their AP Poll rank of 17th. They are just three spots outside of the playoffs, as they are ahead of the top ACC and Group of Six team.
A four turnover game might have just ruined Houston’s season, as they lost 45-35 to West Virginia. The Cougars will need some major help if they want to find their way back in the poll.
The Big 12 benefitted the most from the first playoff ranking reveal. Utah was one of three teams – joining Iowa and Pittsburgh – who were at least four spots higher than their AP Poll rank. But Utah was in the top-15, while Iowa and Pittsburgh are outside the top-20. Texas and Oklahoma still have two ranked games against SEC competition down the stretch. If Utah can close the year 3-0, they have the opportunity to be an at-large team with one of BYU or Texas Tech – without playing in the conference championship game.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
No real change atop the Big Ten. Ohio State and Indiana are on a collision course for Indianapolis. Oregon has handled business after their loss to the Hoosiers. However, the committee viewed Oregon lower than the AP Poll. Sitting at nine, the Ducks would not even host a playoff game if the season ended today. Three of their last four come against teams in the initial rankings. If the Ducks handle business, they will be closer to fifth than tenth.
Still Alive Teams
The teams still alive to make the Big Ten a four bid league will dwindle over the coming weeks. All have two losses and cannot afford another.
USC rightfully found themselves two spots above Michigan. The Trojans survived a win against Nebraska last week, but one could make the argument the outcome would be different if Dylan Raiola’s injury does not occur. Still, the Trojans will have to upset Oregon and knock off Iowa to get in the conversation. For Michigan, they won ugly at Purdue last week. Their next two after the bye come on the road to Northwestern and Maryland. You have to handle those before looking to the final test against Ohio State.
Iowa found themselves as one of the biggest risers in the initial reveal. The Hawkeyes have no standout wins, but their losses are both by one possession on the road to a solid Iowa State team and the #2 ranked Indiana. Oregon is a tall task this week. But if they somehow land two huge wins against the Ducks and USC next week, Iowa will be in the conversation of the top-10.
Washington is off the bye and takes on a struggling Wisconsin team. Their next three come against teams with a combined 3-13 record in Big Ten play. All this before a home finale against Oregon. They are a long shot to make the playoffs, but if they run the table, they are in the conversation.
Nebraska lost last week to USC, but more importantly, lost quarterback Dylan Raiola for the year with a broken leg. Nebraska is bowl eligible, but the remainder of their season likely seems dim after a loss of that magnitude.
After the initial playoff rankings, the Big Ten is locked in to three teams. They have seven ranked in total, but the fourth highest comes at 19th. It will take some chaos in other conferences and one team to get hot to make this a four-bid league.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 4 teams
Best Case Scenario: 5 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Texas A&M comes off their bye after eliminating LSU from the playoffs. They now get a battered Missouri team who will be without quarterback Beau Pribula. This game was a lot more interesting a few weeks ago. Still, we have seen previous A&M teams falter down the stretch. It is important for the Aggies to keep momentum rolling in November.
Alabama is also off their bye after a scare at South Carolina. Now they host an unranked LSU team. We have no idea how the Tigers will bounce back after Brian Kelly’s departure. Even though they are slotted with the bye now, this should go down as a bad loss if the Crimson Tide cannot handle business.
Georgia survived the world’s biggest cocktail party against Florida in their first game without Billy Napier as head coach. There are still two ranked matchups after this week’s trip to Starkville. Georgia has a ways to go before they can make the SEC Championship. But even if they don’t, the Bulldogs are live for a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Ole Miss followed up a win over Oklahoma by handling business against South Carolina. Now they have The Citadel as their annual FCS opponent. The three weeks that follow come at home to Florida, a bye, and at Mississippi State. 11-1 is very much on the table, along with either a SEC Championship appearance or bye in the first round of the playoff.
Still Alive Teams
Texas knocked off Vanderbilt last week. As a result, the committee rewarded the Longhorns by having them as the first team out of the playoffs. Still, the Longhorns have daunting matchups to close the year. Outside of a winnable game against Arkansas, Texas plays at Georgia and hosts Texas A&M. Three losses does not guarantee Texas a spot in the playoffs. For the Commodores, the loss is not the end of the world. Remaining home games against Auburn and Kentucky should find the Commodores as favorites. The last game at Knoxville could loom huge for Vanderbilt’s playoff chances.
Oklahoma’s neutral site loss to Texas could come back to bite them. There should be no reason the Sooners pass the Longhorns, barring a Texas loss or significant injury. The Sooners schedule lightened up some with Missouri losing Beau Pribula for the remainder of the year. But if they cannot beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa next week, it is a longshot to find themselves in the playoffs.
Missouri is a mystery team with the new quarterback under center. A matchup this week against Texas A&M will tell a lot – if the Tigers cannot find a way to keep it close, their hopes of the playoffs are diminished. But if they keep it close or find a way to win, their playoff chances are reborn.
Tennessee lost last week to Oklahoma. Now that they have three losses, they found themselves on the outside looking in for the college football rankings. Last year, three losses was a red flag to the committee. With the Vols omitted from the initial reveal, along with any other teams with three losses, I think the Vols are eliminated from the 12-team field.
We knew the SEC had the most playoff teams in the field. But we did not know how the remaining teams would shake out. Turns out, the next two teams outside the playoffs are from the Southeastern Conference. Five teams is very much on the table for the SEC.
Group of Six
While not ranked, Memphis was noted as the top Group of Six team in the committee’s rankings. Memphis has a big game this week as they take on Tulane. The game lost some luster as Tulane suffered a huge loss to UTSA last week.
North Texas handed Navy their first loss of the year last night. Navy has a long road ahead with three of their next four either against the top of the American or Notre Dame. South Florida is still very much alive in the American as well. The American is still the heavy favorite to land the Group of Six bid.
But if the American slips up and does not represent the Group of Six, don’t be surprised if it’s James Madison. The Dukes continue to roll through the Sun Belt, with their only blemish coming to Louisville. Their last four come against teams who are all fighting for bowl eligibility. Do not sleep on JMU this month.
The Mountain West took a tumble this week. Boise State took their third loss, while UNLV was handed their second loss in as many weeks. If the Mountain West wants a playoff spot, the best bet is with San Diego State. Even if the Aztecs win the Mountain West Championship, it is still an uphill battle to make the college football playoff.
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