2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 9
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 9
It was a mild week 9 in the college football universe. The SEC dominated the big games, with each of the three ranked matchups residing in the south. No true upsets happened, with only South Florida, Illinois, and Arizona State losing to unranked foes. South Florida and Illinois both lost on the road, while Arizona State lost at home when their quarterback, Sam Leavitt, left the game with an injury.
While the landscape has not shifted much, there is still some shuffling that happened this past weekend. Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2025 College Football Playoff field after week 9.
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 8
2025 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 7
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2025 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
In last year’s playoff format, the top four ranked conference championship game winners received the 1-4 seeds. The next highest conference championship game winner was guaranteed a spot into the field, but was not guaranteed a home field game.
The biggest change this year relates to those conference championship game winners: they will no longer receive a bye. Meaning, we can see any combination of conferences receive those four exclusive byes.
Another change we will see in November’s first playoff ranking reveal is how much the committee values the new schedule strength metric. Last year saw plenty of discussion on whether an 11-1 Indiana Hoosiers team should receive an at-large berth, despite playing a favorable Big Ten schedule and no Power Four non-conference opponents. Or should a 9-3 Alabama, South Carolina, or Ole Miss team get in from playing a more difficult schedule, despite taking more losses to inferior opponents.
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 2 team
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
In the Playoff Teams
Georgia Tech has three games remaining on their ACC plate. At North Carolina State this week, a bye, at Boston College, and home against Pitt. All are winnable matchups that will find the Yellow Jackets favored. Finishing the ACC undefeated should have Tech fired up before a neutral site regular season finale against Georgia. But first, handle the ACC schedule.
Miami handled Stanford this week after a loss to Louisville. While the schedule is not a gauntlet, the month of November has been an Achilles heel for Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes. They are just 4-8 since Cristobal joined the Hurricanes three years ago. A loss likely could land Miami on the couch to watch the college football playoffs from home.
Still Alive Teams
Since the win over Louisville, Virginia has knocked off a .500 Washington State team by two and North Carolina by one in overtime. The Hoos travel across the country to play at Cal this week after last week’s scare against UNC.
Louisville rolled past Boston College last week in what many believed was a potential letdown spot after upsetting Miami on Friday night. There is a trap spot this week in Blacksburg, but Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals will be on upset alert weekly if they are in the playoff picture. 11 wins is still on the table for both Virginia and Louisville, and it would be difficult to keep them both out of the college football playoffs.
Wake Forest’s upset victory over SMU eliminates them from the college football playoff. This is the third loss for the Mustangs, and they still have games against Miami, Louisville, and at Cal.
The top four ACC teams just keep winning. If this continues, while other conferences cannibalize each other, it will be interesting to see how high these four teams climb in the rankings.
More: Fantasy Notebook: Target & Snap Share Data from Week 8 (2025)
#12 Notre Dame (5-2)
Notre Dame was off last week, and will play the next five weeks. While winning out should get Notre Dame back into the College Football Playoff, the ACC does pose a threat to the Irish. They hold a head-to-head loss to Miami, who lost to Louisville. The other two teams on track to play for the ACC Championship game are Georgia Tech and Virginia. There is a possibility the top four teams in the ACC have a combined three losses at the end of the regular season. If this is the case, it will be interesting to see if teams leap frog Notre Dame in the rankings.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 1 team
In the Playoff Teams
BYU enters the bye week before traveling to Lubbock. The Cougars continue to win when being doubted. The Texas Tech game will loom large, as it likely will play into tiebreaker scenarios for the Big 12 Championship game. The same goes for three weeks from now, when BYU travels to play Cincinnati.
Still Alive Teams
Behren Morton will return this week for Texas Tech. This is great news for the Red Raiders, as backup Will Hammond got the start last week but left the Oklahoma State game due to injury. This week’s game at Manhattan to take on Kansas State is a tricky spot before hosting BYU in two weeks. If the Red Raiders win those two, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way. The last two games are against Central Florida and West Virginia, who combine for a 1-8 record in Big 12 play. But you cannot overlook this week’s game against Kansas State.
Cincinnati continues to roll as they won by three scores against Baylor. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby continues to impress in his second year at Cincinnati, recording 27 total touchdowns to just one interception. If he continues this play, he should be the Big 12 Player of the Year. There is a big game this week at Utah at night. A win this week should shoot the Bearcats up the rankings.
Houston pulled an upset win at Arizona State last week. Their only loss on the year is to Texas Tech. Three of the last four for the Cougars are against teams with a losing conference record. Houston has the potential to run 11-1 and a chance to go to the Big 12 Championship in Willie Fritz’s second year at the school.
Arizona State picked up their third loss after Sam Leavitt went down to injury. This is their third loss on the year, and second in conference play. This eliminates them from the Big 12 Championship race, thus, eliminating them from playoff contention.
This appears to be coming down to a three team race, with Houston being a dark horse. I still only expect one team from the Big 12 to make the College Football Playoff.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 3 teams
Best Case Scenario: 4 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
No real change atop the Big Ten. Ohio State and Indiana are on a collision course for Indianapolis. Oregon has handled business after their loss to the Hoosiers. One note for the Ducks: the schedule down the stretch gets tricky. Each of their last four games come against teams with a winning Big 10 record, and two are fighting for their college football playoff lives. Will be interesting to see how they fair over the last month of the regular season.
Still Alive Teams
The teams still alive to make the Big Ten a four bid league will dwindle over the coming weeks. All have two losses and cannot afford another.
USC holds a head to head win over Michigan. Both are ranked at the bottom of the AP Poll, but both have a huge opportunity later this year. USC will travel to Oregon, and Michigan hosts Ohio State. Both will likely need to secure that big win if they want to leap into that next tier to make the playoff.
Washington survived last week’s elimination game against Illinois. The Huskies are still not ranked, yet they have an opportunity later this year when they travel to Oregon to secure a big win. They just cannot get tripped up before then. The next two are against Wisconsin and Purdue, both winless in Big Ten play. Then they head to UCLA before that regular season finale against Oregon. The Huskies are very much alive for a fourth bid for the Big Ten.
Nebraska survived last week against Northwestern, becoming bowl eligible before November for the first time since 2016. Their win over Cincinnati has aged nicely, but no other opportunities on the schedule have stood out. They host USC this week in another playoff elimination game. Getting past the Trojans will boost their resume, but there are still questions if it will be enough to get them on the playoff committee’s radar.
Illinois’s loss to Washington last week officially eliminated them from playoff contention. Their best win is over USC, and while no bad losses, they have no more opportunities to secure that massive win to keep them in conversations.
The chances for the Big Ten to land four bids seems dim. As we enter November, I’m not sure any of the four teams mentioned above will be viewed as top-11 worthy by month’s end. Barring some upsets, I would expect the Big Ten to hold three of the top six seeds in this year’s playoffs.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 4 teams
Best Case Scenario: 5 teams
First Round Byes & In the Playoff Teams
Texas A&M dominated LSU in a night game in Baton Rouge. While the schedule should not be viewed as a daunting SEC gauntlet, the Aggies have handled business every step of the way. After their bye, they have two ranked tests remaining against Missouri and Texas. Split those two road contests and win your two at home should easily have the Aggies in the playoffs.
Alabama survived a scare last week in South Carolina, barely edging out a win over the Gamecocks. Like A&M, the Crimson Tide are on a bye this week. They are at home for their next three – LSU, Oklahoma, and Eastern Illinois – before playing in-state rival Auburn in the finale. While not quite a lock yet, Alabama has shown they are at the top of the SEC the last month.
Georgia comes off the bye after their huge win over Ole Miss, and head to a neutral site game against Florida. This could be tricky spot for Kirby Smart’s boys, as it is Florida’s first game since firing head coach Billy Napier. After that, they have just two remaining SEC games before closing the year against Charlotte and Georgia Tech.
While head coach Lane Kiffin’s name continues to pop up for head coaching openings, Ole Miss went into Norman last week and knocked off Oklahoma. All that is remaining is three games against unranked SEC teams, and a FCS opponent in The Citadel. Barring any 2024 Kentucky-like upsets, the Rebels will be a playoff team.
Vanderbilt continues to shine against ranked teams, beating Missouri last week at home. They head to Austin this week to take on Texas, who could be without quarterback Arch Manning. Home games against Auburn and Kentucky are sandwiched between two road games against ranked teams, including their regular season finale against Tennessee in Knoxville.
Still Alive Teams
We have another elimination game this week in the SEC, as Oklahoma heads to Knoxville to take on Tennessee. Tennessee has no signature win yet, while Oklahoma’s best comes against Michigan in week two. Tennessee’s schedule to close the year is more manageable than the Sooners, as their only other ranked matchup comes at home against Vanderbilt. Oklahoma still has Alabama and Missouri after this week – along with a home finale against LSU.
Not only did Missouri lose last week to Vanderbilt, but they lost quarterback Beau Pribula for the remainder of the season. They will need to run the table – that would include wins over Texas A&M and Oklahoma – if they want an at-large bid to the playoffs.
Texas continues to survive, as they won another road game in overtime. While they have been underwhelming and do not appear as a top-11 team for the playoffs, they have three games against top-10 teams down the stretch to change the committee’s minds.
LSU fired coach Brian Kelly after the loss to Texas A&M, knowing the third loss eliminated any hope to make the College Football Playoff. The Tigers will be playing spoiler the remainder of 2025
The SEC picture becomes a little more clearer, and we will have more clarity by next week. In my opinion, the ACC appears to be the biggest holdup for the SEC and their quest to get five or six teams in the field.
Group of Six
American (5)
Memphis is now the betting favorite as they upset South Florida last week. The last two home games for the Tigers loom large, as they come against the last two unbeaten American teams in Tulane and Navy. South Florida will need some help and likely rooting for a rematch from last week in the American Championship.
Tulane was on bye last week as they prep for a Thursday night contest this week against UTSA, before traveling to play Memphis the following week. North Texas continues to put up points, but the path to the American Championship got more tricky as they now sit behind both Memphis and South Florida. It will be difficult to see them in the championship game. Navy’s season starts this week with a true test against North Texas. Their next four are against teams trying to survive for the playoffs, before the Army-Navy game to close the season.
Mountain West (3)
San Diego State and Boise State are the last unbeatens in the Mountain West. They will play against each other in Boise on November 15th. Tiebreakers will determine if UNLV can find themselves in the Mountain West Championship game. While running the table is critical for the Running Rebels, they must win against Hawaii on November 21st, as the Rainbow Warriors are currently a half game ahead of UNLV in the conference standings.
Sun Belt (1)
James Madison was off last week, and will look to continue their dominance in the Sun Belt. The hope for JMU is there is chaos atop the American and Mountain West, and James Madison can be the top rated Group of Six team remaining at 12-1.
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