Rookie Review: Is Michael Penix the Future in Atlanta?
Will Michael Penix Breakout in 2025?
Ever since Matt Ryan’s twilight years, the Falcons have been in quarterback wasteland, dumpster diving for a new franchise quarterback and hoping to win big using scraps. From taking a leap of faith on Marcus Mariota to the underwhelming Desmond Ridder experiment, the Falcons have been stuck in a cycle of mediocrity. Last offseason, that mindset changed significantly as the team made a huge investment in Kirk Cousins that didn’t pay dividends. However, they also acquired Michael Penix who took over and showcased a promising start. In this upcoming season, it’ll be Penix’s show. The keys have been handed to him, but where is the car going? Can Penix drive Atlanta back to the playoffs or will he cause yet another setback?
Penix’s Flashes
Penix has elite arm strength that allows him to make any throw anywhere. He was showcasing his arm talent constantly during the season. This arm strength also allowed for him to be an effective deep ball thrower. In throws with over 20 air yards, he ranked 13th in completion percentage, 7th in passer rating and 18th in EPA per dropback. In games Penix started, he averaged 4.7 deep passes per game which only trails Anthony Richardson. Launching it deep was his cup of tea, airing it out often. It also helps that he’s situated in the middle of an incredibly explosive offense.
On throws of 20+ air yards, Darnell Mooney ranked 10th in receiving yards, 4th in catches and 3rd in catch rate. He also has Drake London who has a huge catch radius and will catch anything that comes within it. The Falcons will likely continue to be an explosive offense which only raises Penix’s ceiling.
As good as Penix’s arm is, his best trait is his anticipation. Penix was always on time, throwing with his receiver’s back turned and before his break is even finished makes a cornerback’s job significantly more difficult. Throwing it deep was Penix’s bread and butter, however he still had the 4th quickest time to throw because he was letting it fly early and anticipating a receiver getting open.
Penix’s Red Flags
Penix has some high highs but his lows essentially cancel them out. And that stems from his accuracy. He ranks 2nd in bad throw percentage but 1st in big time throws percentage which is indicative of how inconsistent his accuracy was. There were far too many times where he was missing freebies that needed to get taken advantage of.
Penix specifically struggled when throwing with touch. He has the arm strength, but can’t control it and put more arc under it. Throwing with touch is tested the most in the intermediate area since there’ll usually be a flat defender underneath and a deep defender over the top and the throw will have to come in between them. When Penix threw in the intermediate area, he had a measly 43% completion percentage which ranked 43rd and had a 64 passer rating. He also ranked 42nd in yards per attempt. Those are disastrous numbers that need to be improved this upcoming season.
Michael Penix Fantasy Value
In Redraft, Penix is worth taking a shot on. Even though he’s still raw, he’s cheap and will pay big if everything works out. In Dynasty, he is also worth investing in. Dynasty is about upside and not many young quarterbacks have Penix’s upside. For teams that aren’t actively trying to contend, Penix should be a target. He likely won’t contribute immediately, but he’ll be a great asset in the future.
Wrap Up
As good as Penix may seem at times, he is still raw, and it’s disappointing to see such an old prospect still be so unpolished. The main calling card for older prospects that attracts scouts is that they’re thought to be immediate contributors and NFL ready. We saw Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels who came in the same draft and were considered “older” prospects immediately transform their teams and take them to the playoffs. But that’s far from the case with Penix who still has alarmingly bad accuracy and an unrefined throwing motion. However, if he can fix these issues, his ceiling is high. Penix being in a great situation helps as well. One of the better receiver duos in the league, a great run game and a solid offensive line.
Penix has the tools, he has the pieces around him, but can he piece it all together? This year, probably not. He’s still unpolished and is missing critical pieces to his game. But with a few years of development, he will be the long term answer the Falcons have been desperately chasing.
