NFL Wild Card Round Best Bets
NFL Wild Card Round Best Bets
The regular season has finally concluded, and as the calendar flips to January, playoff football is among us. The 14 best teams are still standing, and we have three full days of playoff football. Here are my favorite plays for the 2024 NFL Wild Card Round.
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Week 16: 2-2-1 (-.22 units)
Year to Date: 30-32-1 (-5.74 units)
(Sat.) #5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) vs. #4 Houston Texans (10-7)
Houston +3; O/U 41.5
Los Angeles -3 (-105)
Houston went 1-5 (3-3 ATS) against playoff teams, and 9-2 (4-7 ATS) against non playoff teams. Los Angeles is not much better, sitting at 2-5 (3-3-1 ATS) against playoff teams, but 9-1 SU and ATS against non playoff teams. Both of these teams sit at the bottom of playoff teams in point differential versus opposing playoff teams (Chargers -35; Texans -66).
Houston limped to the playoffs in the absence of Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Stroud has taken a slight step back in his sophomore season. Now they play the best defense in the league with the Chargers. Harbaugh is 5-3 in the playoffs, with each win coming by three points. Los Angeles went 6-3 on the road this year, and I think they will get it done again this week.
(Sat.) #6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) vs. #3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Baltimore -9.5; O/U 43.5
Lamar Jackson Under 216.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Zay Flowers was ruled out for this Wild Card Round matchup. That doesn’t help the potential three-time MVP in the passing game against a team he has struggled against throughout his career. Jackson has fallen under this number in four of his six playoff starts (6.79 YPA). In Jackson’s six playoff starts, Baltimore throws the ball on just 52.4% of their plays. Jackson’s 32.5 attempts per game in the playoffs is slightly above his 31.2 attempts per game in his six starts against Pittsburgh. Like the playoffs, Jackson has fallen under this number in four of his six starts against the Steelers. The Ravens have liked to run the ball in the playoffs historically with Jackson, and now they have Derrick Henry, who was just shy of 2,000 yards on the ground this year. I think Jackson falls under this number as the Ravens take care of the struggling Steelers.
(Sun.) #7 Denver Broncos (10-7) vs. #2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Buffalo -8.5; O/U 47.5
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
Josh Allen and the Bills are making their sixth consecutive playoff appearance, the second most in the AFC to Kansas City. In the previous five Wild Card Round playoff games, Allen has thrown for multiple touchdowns four times. Allen has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just two of five games past the Wild Card Round. Denver’s last two road games came against solid quarterbacks, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. They combined for 77.5% completion rate, 8.7 YPA, five touchdowns and one interception. Allen could have a big day against Denver’s secondary.
(Sun.) #7 Green Bay Packers (11-6) vs. #2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Philadelphia -4.5; O/U 45.5
1st Quarter: Green Bay ML (+105)
The actual line is Philadelphia -.5 for the 1st quarter, but is far too juiced on Green Bay’s side (-148), so we will opt for the Packers to lead heading into the 2nd quarter. Philadelphia ranks 21st in first quarter scoring, while the Packers rank 4th. Against playoff teams this year, the Eagles are getting outscored 53-34; this gets boosted after a 21-7 start against the Commanders in Week 16. They’ve only outscored two of the seven playoff teams they’ve faced this year. The Eagles outscored their opponents twice in their 2022 playoff run, and were tied with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Their other two games, they were outscored 24-0 in the 1st quarter.
The Packers have also been outscored in the first quarter this year against playoff teams (19-24), but outside of their divisional games against the Lions and Vikings – where they went 1-5 this year – this mark improves to 16-3 against playoff games. Green Bay is 4-2-1 in the first quarter of playoff games since Matt LaFleur became the head coach. The Packers will be without Christian Watson, but Jalen Hurts has just cleared concussion protocol on Thursday. I believe the Packers get out to the better start and will take them to win the 1st quarter.
(Sun.) #6 Washington Commanders (12-5) vs. #3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Tampa Bay -3; O/U 50.5
Tampa Bay -3 (-115)
Going back to 2011, rookie quarterbacks are 5-13 in the playoffs. If you remove the rookie vs. rookie matchups, that drops to 3-11. Both teams rank in the top-5 in rushing offense (Washington at 3rd, Tampa Bay at 4th), but the Commanders rank 30th in rush defense compared to Tampa Bay at 4th. Four of the Commanders’ five losses (1-3-1 ATS) came against playoff teams, with the lone win coming against the Eagles when Kenny Pickett replaced an injured Jalen Hurts. Tampa Bay is 4-3 in the same matchups and 5-2 ATS. I’m on Tampa Bay to advance to the Divisional Round.
(Mon.) #5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3) vs. #4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)*
Los Angeles +2.5; O/U 47.5
Los Angeles +2.5 (-108)
* Game now played in Glendale, Arizona due to Los Angeles wildfires
This is Sam Darnold’s first playoff start, while Matthew Stafford gets his 9th career postseason start, and his 6th with Sean McVay. Minnesota benefitted from a relatively easy schedule, playing just two playoff opponents outside of the division. One being against the team he plays on Monday night, a game where the Rams won 30-20. While Minnesota leads the league with 24 interceptions, they rank 28th in passing yards allowed. Stafford has just three turnovers in five playoff games with the Rams. I think Los Angeles handles business to conclude the Wild Card Round.
What are some of your favorite Wild Card Round NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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