2024 College Football Week 10 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 10 Best Bets
The calendar turns to November and we are coming down the stretch of the college football season. We have another top-5 matchup in the Big Ten, the ‘World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’, a service academy matchup, and a ranked ACC matchup with conference title game implications. Plus 40+ more games for the week. Here are my favorite Week 10 college football bets.
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Week 9: 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Year to Date: 19-23-1 (-6.14 Units)
#4 Ohio State (6-1) vs. #3 Penn State (7-0)
Penn State +3; O/U 45
Under 45 (-108)
Ohio State -3 (-115)
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries. Penn State’s quarterback Drew Allar is listed as a game-time decision, dealing with a MCL sprain. Ohio State is without their LT Josh Simmons, who was injured in the Oregon game. Simmons’ backup, Zen Michalski, left last week’s game against Nebraska. Per Tom Fornelli, there have been 60 run plays without Simmons at left tackle. The combination of Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson average 2.2 YPC, and have gained zero or lost yards on 22 of the 60 snaps (37%).
James Franklin is 1-15 SU against top-5 teams, including 0-10 when his team is also ranked. Two of those ten games finished within a touchdown. Franklin is 105-21 against unranked teams; that record declines to 14-33 against ranked opponents. Ryan Day is just 2-6 against top-5 teams. Until James Franklin gets the big win, I have to fade him in these spots. Ohio State wins a low scoring affair in Happy Valley.
Vanderbilt (5-3) vs. Auburn (3-5)
Auburn -6.5; O/U 48
Vanderbilt +6.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt has covered in each of their four SEC games, all as an underdog, and winning two outright. And while the game was not as close as the score indicated in last week’s loss to Texas, they still lost by just a field goal. Auburn is 2-5 this year against FBS opponents, with both wins coming over teams that currently sit at 3-5. Hugh Freeze is 4-9 (7-6 ATS) in SEC play since being hired last year at Auburn. All four wins have come against teams with a losing record and a combined conference record of 3-27. And Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has experience against Hugh Freeze, when the New Mexico State Aggies rolled in and curb stomped Auburn last year, 31-10. I like Vanderbilt in this one.
#1 Oregon (8-0) vs. Michigan (5-3)
Michigan +15; O/U 45
Oregon: 1st Half -8.5 (-110)
The Ducks have covered their last three and four of their last six. In their five Big Ten games this year, Oregon has outscored opponents 127-34. Ohio State is by far the best team the Ducks have played in Big Ten play; excluding their 22-21 halftime score, Oregon has outscored opponents 105-13. Michigan has averaged 12.4 PPG in the first half of their five Big Ten games, but now will trot out Davis Warren at quarterback. On 91 attempts, Warren has thrown three touchdowns to six interceptions. I like Oregon early in the Big House.
Florida (4-3) vs. #2 Georgia (6-1)*
Georgia +16; O/U 52
Florida +16 (-110)
* Game played in Jacksonville, FL
Not to say Georgia could be in a lookahead spot after their off week, but they do travel to #19 Ole Miss next week and host #7 Tennessee the following week. Florida has been pesky as an underdog, covering their last three since the loss to Texas A&M. When Florida has been a double-digit underdog against ranked opponents, the Gators are 4-2 ATS under Billy Napier. Georgia in their last 14 against unranked opponents is 1-12-1 ATS. Georgia moves to 7-1, but I believe it’s closer to a two touchdown game. I’m on the Gators to cover.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 9: 0-3 (-1.5 Unit)
Year to Date: 7-19 (-4.08 Units)
#24 Illinois vs. Minnesota +124
Another instance of Illinois as a home-dog this year, where they are 2-0 outright. Minnesota is on a three-game wining streak, but its over the middle or bottom of the Big Ten teams. Bielema is 3-0 against P.J. Fleck, so I’ll back the home dogs in the Illini.
Vanderbilt @ Auburn +185
Auburn hasn’t been able to beat a conference foe with a pulse under Hugh Freeze. No one is more scrappy in this conference than Vanderbilt. I like Vanderbilt to pull the road upset.
South Carolina vs. #10 Texas A&M +110
Beamer’s boys are 2-3 SU against top-10 teams, but all three losses have come against Georgia. Texas A&M coming off a huge night win at Kyle Field, now they travel to Columbia for a night game. A&M is strong CFP contender, but I like the Gamecocks to pull the upset.
Washington vs. USC +110
Washington has protected home field, going 4-0 this year (0-4 away from Husky Stadium). USC is 0-3 in true road games this year, losing all three as a road favorite. I think the Huskies play much better at home and pull the slight upset.
What are your favorite Week 10 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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