2024 College Football Week 6 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 6 Best Bets
Week 6 doesn’t appear to be the best on paper. Only one ranked matchup between Missouri and Texas A&M among plenty of conference games. But that’s where the best college football weekends happen – when we least expect them. Here are my favorite Week 6 college football bets.
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Week 5: 3-1-1 (+1.92 Units)
Year to Date: 10-14-1 (-5.26 Units)
(Friday) Houston (1-4) vs. TCU (3-2)
TCU -16.5; O/U 51.5
TCU -16.5 (-110)
Under 51.5 (-112)
The Big 12 has welcomed conference realignment in each of the past two years. The four teams that joined in 2022 – BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston – struggled in conference play. Those four teams went 12-20-1 ATS (37%) against original Big 12 teams. TCU had two games last year against Big 12 newcomers, defeating Houston 36-13 and BYU 44-11.
In Houston’s 11 Big 12 contests, they have been shutout in three. Houston averages 20.1 PPG against Big 12 teams who have not come from realignment. Against Power Four programs this year, Houston has recorded 12 points and scored just one touchdown in three games. I can’t trust this Houston offense at their current state. I’m on the Under and TCU in this Friday night showdown in the Lone Star state.
Iowa (3-1) vs. #3 Ohio State (4-0)
Ohio State -20; O/U 45.5
Ohio State -20 (-108)
Iowa’s offense has been humming this season, averaging 29.3 PPG in their three games against FBS opponents. But now they travel to Columbus and take on a ranked Ohio State team. Since the start of 2022, Iowa is 0-5 ATS against ranked opponents. They failed to score in the last three, going 14 consecutive quarters without scoring a point. With the previous division setup in the Big Ten, the only game Kirk Ferentz and Ryan Day have met came in 2022. Ohio State won 54-10. While the teams have changed, the talent on the sidelines is still comparable. I don’t believe Iowa has the players to make this a game. Ohio State rolls into Eugene next week with a convincing win over the Hawkeyes.
SMU (4-1) vs. #22 Louisville (4-1)
Louisville -7; O/U 56
Over 56 (-110)
SMU’s offense has elevated since transition from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings at quarterback. In the two games In two FBS where Stone played, the Mustangs average 22 PPG and 4.74 YPP against Nevada and BYU. With Jennings against TCU and Florida State, SMU averages 54 PPG and 6.17 YPP. Under Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs allow 28.7 PPG in true road games. The Mustangs now make a trip to Louisville, where the Cards are coming off a tough loss in South Bend. Tyler Shough’s sixth year in college has been great under Jeff Brohm. I think Louisville bounces back in this one and lights up the scoreboard. I’m expecting a high scoring affair in this ACC battle in Week 6.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 5: 1-3 (-.79 Unit)
Year to Date: 4-8 (-.5 Units)
#9 Missouri @ #25 Texas A&M +114
Missouri off a bye, going into Kyle Field, against another ranked opponent. And they are just 2.5-point dogs? I think this
Appalachian State @ Marshall +136
It’s been a devastating week for North Carolina natives. The Mountaineers bring a little hope during a dark time and pull the upset.
Cal vs. #8 Miami (FL) +320
Shame on me for fading one of my favorite trends in college football: Miami is 4-13 ATS (7-10 SU) in ACC play under Mario Christobal. Now they travel across the country to Berkeley for a 10:30 PM Eastern kickoff, where Cal welcomes ESPN’s College Gameday. Cal with the upset.
What are your favorite Week 6 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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