2024 NFL Week 4 Best Bets
2024 NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Week 4 offers another great slate for the NFL. Each of the five 3-0 teams are on the road; will they all remain perfect? Can one of the three winless teams finally break into the win column? Here are my favorite Week 4 NFL bets.
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Week 1: 2-2 (-.22 units)
Year to Date: 5-5-1 (-.6 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Indianapolis +2; O/U 40
Pittsburgh -2 (-112)
The Steelers defense has been one of the best in the league, leading the league with 8.6 PPG allowed. Their defense ranks 5th in pressure rate (41.8%), despite blitzing on just 15.4% of their plays. Meanwhile, the Colts rank 28th in pressure rate (27.9%) and just placed DT DeForest Buckner on IR with a sprained ankle. Pittsburgh won’t allow Indianapolis to get extra possessions, turning the ball over just once through three games (+4). The Colts have six turnovers through three games (-2). I expect Mike Tomlin’s team to handle business in this AFC battle, and leave the ‘Lahd Hahse’ win a win.
New England Patriots (1-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
San Francisco -10.5; O/U 40
New England +10.5 (-112)
Teams favored by more than a touchdown have struggled to cover the number to start the season. Those that are favored by more than a touchdown are just 6-10 SU and 2-14 ATS. The Niners will still be without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and potentially George Kittle on offense. The Niners defense allows 6.1 YPP and 52.9% conversion rate on 3rd down. New England is no offensive juggernaut, but I think Jacoby Brissett and company can keep it single-digits. I’m on New England in this cross country trip.
Buffalo Bills (3-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-2)
Baltimore -2.5; O/U 46.5
Buffalo Team Total Over 22.5 (-110)
Over 46.5 (-110)
The move from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator has somehow elevated an already great offense. In the 12 games since Brady took the job, the Bills have averaged 29.7 PPG. They have cleared their team total in seven of those 12 games, including three this year. Baltimore’s opponents have cleared their team total in each of the first three games, with the Over being 3-0. While the prime time Under has been a common trend, I think this one can clear the number – for both the Bills and the game.
(Monday) Seattle Seahawks (3-0) vs. Detroit Lions (2-1)
Detroit -3.5; O/U 47
Detroit -3.5 (-112)
Seattle is off to a strong start under new coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. It helps when you’ve played Denver, New England, and Miami in those three games. Bo Nix’s first start and two career backups in Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Now, Seattle goes into Detroit for a prime time game. Detroit is 7-2 ATS since the start of 2022 in stand alone games.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 1: 2-0 (+1.6 units)
Year to Date: 2-3 (+.1 units)
Los Angeles (N) @ Chicago +124
The Bears offensive line and run game have been no help to rookie Caleb Williams. While the Chicago defense has been solid, the Rams have a clear advantage at quarterback and coaching. I believe the Rams pull the upset in Chicago this weekend
New England @ San Francisco +440
At +440 and teams being an underdog of a touchdown or more being 10-6 SU, it’s worth a sprinkle on the biggest underdog of the week.
Buffalo @ Baltimore +120
Buffalo is 10-2 since Joe Brady took over the offensive play calling duties, and Josh Allen is the MVP through three weeks. I’ll gladly take this high powered offense as an underdog in Week 4.
What are some of your favorite Week 4 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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