2024 College Football Week 5 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 5 Best Bets
The college football season is flying by as we are now a month into the 2024 campaign. Some teams are exceeding expectations, while others have fallen short. And some we have no idea how good they are due to a weak schedule. But there is no wear to hide when conference play begins, and we are entering the heart of conference season. Here are my favorite Week 5 college football bets.
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Week 4: 2-3 (-1.32 Units)
Year to Date: 7-13 (-7.18 Units)
Northern Illinois (2-1) vs. NC State (2-2)
NC State -7; O/U 47
Northern Illinois +7 (-108)
Northern Illinois’s undefeated dreams fell last week, losing to conference foe Buffalo at home in overtime. But the spot to grab the Huskies is as a road dog. Since Thomas Hammock arrived in Dekalb in 2019, NIU is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog. In the last three years against Power Four opponents, NIU is 4-2 ATS as a road underdog with three outright wins. NC State has fallen well below expectations this year, getting blown out by Tennessee and Clemson. Their only other game against an FBS opponent saw the Wolfpack tied with Louisiana Tech entering the 4th. Northern Illinois is live this week in Raleigh.
#15 Louisville (3-0) vs. #16 Notre Dame (3-1)
Notre Dame -6; O/U 48
Notre Dame -6 (-112)
Louisville won it’s first test last week against Georgia Tech, 31-19. But the game was much closer than the final score: Louisville scored a touchdown on a blocked field goal and fumble recovery deep in Tech’s territory. The Yellow Jackets also failed to convert on multiple 4th-and-1s in the game, including one on Louisville’s goal line.
Both coaches are great against the spread (ATS): Marcus Freeman is 16-5 ATS against Power Four schools, while Jeff Brohm is 23-13 ATS as an underdog, going back to his time as the Purdue head coach. I need to see more from Brohm’s Louisville squad before officially buying in and taking them as a legitimate ACC team.
#19 Illinois (4-0) vs. #9 Penn State
Penn State -18; O/U 48
Illinois +18 (-108)
Over 48 (-108)
Illinois’s quarterback Luke Altmyer has looked very comfortable in his second year in Barry Lunney Jr.’s offense, throwing for 10 touchdowns and no turnovers. This is the same Lunney offense that dropped 48 points on new Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s Indiana defense last year. You know who else looked very strong against a Tom Allen defense this season? Bowling Green and Connor Bazelek. Bazelek is in his second season at Bowling Green after transferring from…Indiana, where he was coached by Allen.
Like Altmyer, Drew Allar has looked impressive in his first year with Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Allar’s passer rating ranks 3rd in FBS, trailing only Utah’s Cam Rising and Ole Miss’s Jaxson Dart. Kotelnicki comes from Kansas and has experience against Illinois, where the Jayhawks won 34-23 last year in Lawrence. I think this game has a chance to be more high scoring than people think.
Mississippi State (1-3) vs. #1 Texas (4-0)
Texas -38.5; O/U 62.5
Under 62.5 (-112)
Texas has allowed just two touchdowns this season: a 53-yard touchdown run against UTSA and a garbage time touchdown against Michigan. Mississippi State just lost quarterback Blake Shapen for the year to a shoulder injury. Shapen accounted for six of the team’s nine touchdowns against FBS opponents. His replacement is a true freshman, Michael Van Buren Jr, who did lead the Bulldogs on a touchdown drive in his first time under center. But this is a rude awakening for a first start. I’m not sure if Mississippi State scores. For Texas, they tend to play well the week before the Red River Rivalry under Sark. The average game total has been 57 with the Under With an already injured Quin Ewers, I’d expect Texas to get in and get out with a win and suffer no additional injuries. Texas dominates Mississippi State, but falls under the total.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 4: 0-2 (-1 Unit)
Year to Date: 3-5 (+.3 Units)
Western Kentucky @ Boston College +340
Western has averaged 472 yards of offense in their two FBS games since Alabama in the opener. Tyson Helton can get the Hilltoppers to play Power Four schools close. I think they could go into BC and pull an upset.
Northern Illinois @ NC State +185
NIU has three outright wins as road underdogs against Power Four opponents since the start of 2021. They’ll push NC State to the test this weekend.
BYU @ Baylor +142
Baylor has struggled against the new additions to the Big 12, going 2-2 since the start of last year. The Bears are 2-8 in conference play over the last two years. I know this is a trap spot for BYU after a big win over Kansas State. But I believe BYU goes into Waco and pulls the – technical – upset.
Washington State @ #25 Boise State +200
Boise State has allowed 82 points in their two games against FBS opponents. This is Washington State’s first road game, but I think they can challenge the Broncos on the blue turf.
What are your favorite Week 5 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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