2024 College Football Week 3 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 3 Best Bets
The Week 2 college football weekend showed the beauty in the sport. What many thought was a weak slate proved to be full of excitement. Texas destroyed the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines in The Big House. Iowa State came back on their in-state rival Iowa. And Northern Illinois became the first MAC team to knock off a top-5 team when they upset Notre Dame in South Bend. And while Week 3 doesn’t appear as enticing (only two ranked matchups), there will be magic once again this weekend. Here are my favorite Week 3 college football bets.
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Week 2: 1-4 (-3.38 Units)
Year to Date: 2-8 (-6.66 Units)
#4 Alabama (2-0) vs. Wisconsin (2-0)
Wisconsin +16; O/U 50.5
Under 50.5 (-110)
This is the first true test for a Wisconsin offense that has struggled offensively to start 2024. Against Western Michigan and South Dakota, quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is completing just 60.3% of his attempts and 6.4 YPA. Van Dyke has throw just one touchdown on 63 attempts. The running back room is not as explosive, either, averaging just 4.9 yards per touch. Five of Wisconsin’s six offensive touchdowns have come on the ground. Alabama’s defense has put a stop against the run, allowing just 16 rushing touchdowns in as many games since the start of 2023.
In their 11 games against Power Four opponents since Luke Fickell arrived in Madison, the Wisconsin defense allowed 21 PPG. The highest mark came last year in the bowl game against another SEC foe, LSU, allowing 35 points. Fickell has coached against five top-10 teams in his 8-plus year career. The average game total in those games is 39.2 with no game eclipsing 50 points. Against ranked opponents, the Under is 15-9 when Fickell is coaching. I expect his defense to show up in this low scoring game, that is expected to be one of the best on the Week 3 calendar.
Central Michigan (1-1) vs. Illinois (2-0)
Illinois -18.5; O/U 49.5
Under 49.5 (-112)
This is a dangerous spot for the Fighting Illini. They are coming off a huge home win, upsetting Kansas 23-17 to avenge their 34-23 loss in Lawrence last year. Next week, they should have a battle of the unbeatens on Friday night when they head into Lincoln to take on the 23rd ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers. Add in an 11 AM local time kickoff and this could be a sluggish start. The Under is 9-3 in Illinois non-conference games under Bret Bielema, and I don’t see seven touchdowns being scored in this one.
#18 Notre Dame (1-1) vs. Purdue (1-0)
Purdue +10; O/U 45.5
Under 45.5 (-110)
Notre Dame’s world turned upside down last week. They had the best win in Week 1 at Kyle Field, defeating Texas A&M 23-13. Then they turn around and had a terrible loss, losing as a 28-point favorite to Northern Illinois 16-13. To make matters worse, starting Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard was hurt in the Northern Illinois game. There is a chance he doesn’t play against the Boilermakers, or if he does, could be on a short leash.
A point against Notre Dame, outside of Leonard, in their first two games is their lack of offensive weapons. No receivers have stepped up to start the year, and their running back Jeremiyah Love isn’t being fed as much as fans would like. Purdue head coach Ryan Walters loves playing man coverage, which could cause problems for the Irish receivers if they can’t separate.
For Purdue, we have a small sample size, as they’ve only played FCS Indiana State. However, the offensive line had some question marks after Week 1. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded three of the five Boilermaker offensive lineman below a 60.0 grade. If that doesn’t improve over their bye week, the Fighting Irish defense should feast. I think Notre Dame’s defense keeps them in this and carries them to a low scoring win in West Lafayette. I’m on the Under for Week 3.
Maryland (1-1) vs. Virginia (2-0)
Virginia +3; O/U 57
Maryland -3 (-102)
If you want to bet on Mike Locksley and the Terrapins, make sure you do so in the non-con. Since 2019, Maryland is 12-4 ATS in their non-conference games, and just 15-27 (35.7%) in conference play. They lost last week’s conference opener at home to Michigan State, where they allowed 10 points in the last four minutes of play. Virginia since Tony Elliott took the job is 4-15 SU against Power Four programs and just 1-7 at home. They won a road conference game at Wake last week, but I’m expecting them to fall to Maryland in Week 3.
BYU (2-0) vs. Wyoming (0-2)
Wyoming +11; O/U 40.5
BYU -11 (-110)
Wyoming has scored a whopping 20 points in two games against FCS Idaho and an Arizona State team that went 3-9 a year ago. Evan Svoboda is completing just 41% of pass attempts and is averaging 4.3 YPA. The BYU defense allows just 3.5 yards per play. This BYU defense can put their offense in good spots and win by multiple scores. I like the Cougars big in this one.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 2: 1-2 (-.43 Units)
Year to Date: 1-3 (-.93 Units)
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia +105
Not much of an underdog, but I’ll gladly take a home underdog in Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. The home team has won the last two times Neil Brown and Pat Narduzzi coached against each other. Expect a bar fight in this brawl at Acrisure Stadium.
Toledo @ Mississippi State +340
Toledo is 0-3 against Power Four programs the last three years. All were on the road, and two of those three came within a field goal. The other was against Ohio State. Mississippi State has Florida in their SEC opener next week. Don’t sleep on the Rockets in Starkville.
What are your favorite Week 3 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
RANKINGS | Weekly | DYNASTY |
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