A Contrarian Approach to Draft Strategy In Two QB Leagues
These days, the draft strategy of waiting to select a quarterback remains as commonplace as cold weather in Alaska. And it makes sense in most leagues where lineups feature just one signal caller. Just ask all of those owners who landed Patrick Mahomes in the double-digit rounds last season.
Alas, one format exists where quarterbacks are gobbled up early. In leagues where lineups require two quarterbacks, runs on quarterbacks can take place as soon as round one. Simple mathematics dictate why this is the case. After all, if you are in a league with 12 owners, that means 24 quarterbacks are started every week. With the NFL having 32 teams, the pickings get slim in a hurry.
A Contrarian Draft Strategy
But what if you are in a 2QB league and decide not to pull the trigger on a quarterback right away? After all, there would be plenty of options in rounds three and four and the early-round running back and wide receiver talent is immense. However, we are not talking about a small wait. Bold and daring always maintains a welcome spot in fantasy football. In lieu of that, what if you chose to be the last owner in your league to make a selection at the NFL’s most important position?
Many would see that as a bad strategy. In reality, it looms as a perfect strategy given the NFL landscape in 2019. There are few teams with complex quarterback situations (we are looking at you, New York Giants) and there is no question regarding the stability of many starters. Who could you get if you were exceptionally bold and waited until say, rounds seven and eight to get your two starters? Fantasy Football Calculator gives drafters an excellent view of current Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP. Here is a breakdown of the seventh and eighth rounds of a 2QB draft according to the latest ADP data:
| ADP | Player | Team |
| 74 | Kirk Cousins | MIN |
| 75 | Josh Allen | BUF |
| 81 | Kyler Murray | ARI |
| 86 | Sam Darnold | NYJ |
| 94 | Derek Carr | OAK |
| 97 | Lamar Jackson | BAL |
| 98 | Matthew Stafford | DET |
There are still seven viable starting QB options in this range. No one is perfect, let alone this crop, but all we are looking for is a pair of quality starters who will supplement your star running backs, wide receivers, and maybe even a tight end that you snared while your competition was overly focused on one position.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota
The polarizing Kirk Cousins does not lack for detractors. Nonetheless, Cousins tossed 30 touchdown passes during his debut season in Minnesota. He racked up 4,298 yards with a quarterback rating of 99.7. Cousins has thrown for over 4,000 yards four years in a row dating back to his days with the Washington Redskins.
With coaching veterans Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison now on the Minnesota staff, the Vikings will ride their running game more, especially with a healthy Dalvin Cook. The possible departure of Kyle Rudolph would take a reliable weapon out of Minnesota’s attack. That being said, Cousins did not exactly lean on Rudolph, as the veteran tight end had his lowest touchdown total since 2014, one of which came on a Hail Mary in a victory over Detroit. Rookie tight end Irv Smith Jr. could certainly hold down the fort if necessary. As long as Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are in the fold, Cousins has top-10 upside. And yes, I like that.
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Early last season, no one would have blamed Josh Allen if he thought he was playing Texas Hold ‘Em and saw an overabundance of the dreaded seven/two off-suit. The Bills dealt him a bad hand with a weak supporting cast. Everything changed down the stretch with wide receivers Robert Foster and Zay Jones giving Allen a boost, along with his own improved play and fantastic rushing ability.
Running quarterbacks are like a cheat code in fantasy football. In a Week 17 win over Miami, Allen rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for three scores. Buffalo invested in more help for their young quarterback this offeason, signing speedster John Brown and slot man Cole Beasley. The Bills also drafted tight end Dawson Knox out of Mississippi. It would be nice if the Bills had a true number one receiver, but Allen looks ready to take another step forward in his development. The rewards with Allen outweigh the risks by a sizeable margin.
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Whether Kyler Murray turns out to be a star or not, fantasy owners can profit from buying into the Air Raid system new Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury has been a part of since his playing days at Texas Tech. Not only does Arizona want to have a wide-open offense, negative game scripts due to a weak defense will only play in Murray’s favor–at least from a fantasy perspective. Banking on rookie quarterbacks used to be for the faint of heart, but much like Allen, the ones who can run are the exception to the rule.
Here is what @ChewOnSports had to say about new #Cardinals QB Kyler Murray when he selected him in the 2nd round of the @createArank rookie mock draft https://t.co/NlxaH7FUqX
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) April 26, 2019
Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Even if you are not a fan of Adam Gase, certainly understandable if Kenyan Drake was part of your squad last year, do not let Gase’s overwhelming presence and recent power play deter you from considering Sam Darnold. An interception machine at times as a rookie, Darnold played considerably better late in 2018. His best performance came when he had 341 yards and three touchdowns in a shootout loss to Green Bay.
While it would have been nice for New York to have added more help at wide receiver beyond Jamison Crowder, their acquisition of Le’Veon Bell makes things better for the entire offense. A star receiver out of the backfield and the first superstar Darnold gets to play with in his career, Bell significantly enhances Darnold’s chances of fantasy success. Crowder, Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa and intriguing tight end Chris Herndon give Darnold an adequate, albeit not great, supporting cast.
Derek Carr, Oakland
Derek Carr has only topped the 30 touchdown pass threshold once in his career and had a dismal total of 19 last year. On the plus side, he threw for over 4,000 yards for the first time. Oh, and speaking of pluses, he gets to work with new additions Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. The chances of Carr returning to 30 scores are much better than him getting stuck on 19 again.
Furthermore, if rookie running back Josh Jacobs pans out, Oakland will be far more diversified, opening up opportunities for Carr. The Raiders lost tight end Jared Cook, but brought in further help in the form of speedy J.J. Nelson and steady Ryan Grant. They drafted Clemson legend Hunter Renfrow, potentially the NFL’s next great slot receiver. When you combine a vastly improved supporting cast and the fact the Raiders are still a work in progress on defense, expect Carr to click with the rest of your roster and propel a run to the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Anyone who observed a Baltimore game after Lamar Jackson became the starter for the Ravens knows the former Louisville star needs to improve as a passer. Until that happens, his ground game pays the fantasy bills. When Baltimore clinched the AFC North title by beating Cleveland in the season finale, Jackson rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns. That element alone makes him a viable candidate to finish among the top-15 quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson ran play action on a league-high 41.9% of his dropbacks in 2018. #Ravens #FantasyFootball
Via: @ChewOnSports pic.twitter.com/wrp6Ousy3J
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) May 3, 2019
In the offseason, Charm City’s team sought upgrades all across the offense. Running back Mark Ingram comes over from New Orleans to headline the backfield, with rookie Justice Hill adding blazing speed to the mix. Speaking of blazing speed, the Ravens hope rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin can grow with Jackson, and grow quickly. If Jackson makes the necessary improvements as a passer and builds chemistry with Brown and Boykin, he will be a fantasy star.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit
The offseason chatter around Motown involves a massive commitment to the running game. Talk of three tight end sets and the acquisition of C.J. Anderson to support rising Kerryon Johnson hint at a ground and pound approach that minimizes Stafford’s upside. Nevertheless, Stafford will have more options to work with than he did during the latter half of 2018 when Golden Tate was traded away and Marvin Jones was lost for the season due to injury.
In addition to the return of Jones and budding star Kenny Golladay, the Lions selected tight end T.J. Hockenson in the first round of April’s draft. Additionally, Detroit signed Danny Amendola and Jermaine Kearse in free agency. Neither will make a fantasy impact, but they will give Stafford safety valves. Since 2011, Stafford’s touchdown totals have moved in an up-and-down fashion: I am not aware of The Rock smelling an upgrade in touchdowns, but the recipe calls for one.
And with that, we have a recipe for unorthodox success in two quarterback leagues.
