College Football Week 11 Best Bets
College Football Week 11 Best Bets
Another week goes by and we are one step closer in figuring out the College Football Playoff puzzle. Four ranked matchups, including two top-ten matchups, will help with a few more pieces. Here are my favorite Week 11 college football plays.
College Football Week 10 Best Bets: 3-1-1 (75%; +2 units)
College Football Best Bets Record: 17-15-1 (53%; +2 units)
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#3 Michigan (9-0) vs. #10 Penn State (8-1)
Penn State +4.5; O/U 45
Michigan -4.5 (-110)
This is the first real test for Michigan, and it comes on the road in Happy Valley. This matchup features two of the top-three defenses in the country; Penn State’s defense has allowed just 14.2 PPG in conference play, while the Wolverines allow just 7.3, respectively.
James Franklin against top-five teams is now 1-14 after a loss to Ohio State earlier this season. When Penn State has been ranked under Franklin, they are 0-9 against top-five teams. Two of the nine have finished within a touchdown. Until I see Franklin pull out a big time win (97-21 vs. unranked teams; 13-31 vs. ranked opponents), I’m fading his team. Michigan stays undefeated after a Week 11 college football trip to Happy Valley.
Georgia Tech (5-4) vs. Clemson (5-4)
Clemson -14.5; O/U 55.5
Georgia Tech +14.5 (-110)
Dabo wants us to buy into this Clemson team, and while I’m no day-trader, I have no reason to buy into his sermon. Yes, they landed their best win of the season last week against Notre Dame as a home underdog. But Notre Dame has not been the same team away from South Bend after their Ohio State loss. They are 1-2 on the road since October, losing in a blowout to Louisville, beating Duke, and a loss last week to Clemson.
Now, Clemson enters this one as a two-touchdown favorite at home. They are just 1-4 ATS when they are a double-digit point favorite this season, and have suffered two losses outright. Georgia Tech as an underdog has covered 11 of their last 13. When they are double-digit underdogs? 6-2 ATS. Georgia Tech catches the Tigers snoozing as they look ahead to North Carolina next week and keep this one close. Back the Yellow Jackets in this Week 11 college football ACC matchup.
North Carolina State (6-3) vs. Wake Forest (4-5)
Wake Forest +2.5; O/U 43.5
Wake Forest +2.5 (-110)
Under 43.5 (-110)
MJ Morris started the last four games for the Wolfpack, going 3-1 with two home wins as a home underdog. In conference play, Morris led the Wolfpack in 246 yards per game and 15.7 PPG. The Wolfpack now go back to Brennan Armstrong, where they averaged 260 yards of offense and 17 PPG in ACC play against Louisville and at Virginia. Regardless of who the Wolfpack have trotted out at quarterback, it has led to a 5-0 UNDER record in ACC play. The average game total resulted in 32.4 PPG.
The UNDER is 4-2 in ACC play for Wake Forest (43 PPG). This is senior day for Wake Forest and their bowl hopes lay in the balance: at 4-5, their final two road games are at Notre Dame and at Syracuse. Home underdogs are now 13-4 ATS in ACC play, including 8-9 SU. North Carolina State is coming off a huge win against Miami and Wake has the rest advantage. I like the Demon Deacons in this ACC matchup.
More: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings
Michigan State (3-6) vs. #1 Ohio State (9-0)
Ohio State -31; O/U 47
Ohio State Team Total Over 38.5 (-110)
Last week was the first time since the Mel Tucker firing that Michigan State held an opponent under their team total OVER; that record now stands at 1-6. In his four games against Michigan State, Ryan Day’s Buckeyes average 47.8 PPG and cashed their team total OVER in their last three. I think the Buckeyes, led by Maserati Marv and Honda Accord Kyle McCord keep that streak going against the Spartans.
More: Fantasy Football Trades You Need To Make Before Week 10
USC (7-3) vs. #6 Oregon (8-1)
Oregon -15; O/U 73.5
Oregon Team Total Over 44.5 (-130)
I’m tempted to grab this at 45.5 at +105, but will keep it under the football number. The firing of Alex Grinch as USC defensive coordinator came for good reason: opponents cashed their team total OVER in nine of the Trojans’ 10 games this season and boast the second-worst defense in the conference (36.4 PPG allowed). The only team worse? Cal, who was dismantled in Eugene last week against the Ducks.
Bo Nix and Oregon’s offense have averaged 41 PPG in their seven home conference games since last year. This season, Oregon has scored 35 points by halftime in two of their three home conference games. Oregon’s defense has been putting the ball in Nix’s hands this year, possessing the ball for just under 33 minutes per game at home in conference play. I like the Ducks to keep their strong offensive performance rolling against the struggling Trojans.
Follow me @DrewRoberts_ and let me know your favorite Week 11 college football play
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