College Football Week 8 Best Bets
College Football Week 8 Best Bets
Last week’s battle of the unbeatens between Oregon and Washington was arguably the best game of the season. As we head into Week 8, there’s a chance it will be topped. #6 Penn State versus #3 Ohio State highlights a Week 8 college football schedule of four ranked matchups and plenty of great conference games. Here are my favorite Week 8 college football bets.
College Football Week 7 Best Bets: 3-2 (60%; +1 units)
College Football Best Bets Record: 7-11 (39%; -4 units)
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Central Florida (3-3) vs. #6 Oklahoma (6-0)
Oklahoma -17.5; O/U 66
Oklahoma -17.5 (-110)
Only four teams – Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, and UNLV – have yet to suffer a loss ATS this season. And there is a developing trend in the Big 12: new teams – BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston – are 1-9 SU and ATS when playing old Big 12 teams. That lone win came last week, when Houston hit a hail mary touchdown to knock off West Virginia.
There are staggering variances between UCF’s offensive output in non-conference versus conference play. They are averaging 200 fewer yards on offense in conference play (222 passing, 193 rushing) compared to their non-conference games (318 passing, 299 rushing) and over 10 fewer points per game. It gets worse for the defense; the defense allows 200 more yards in conference play (213 passing, 278 rushing) compared to non-conference (167 passing, 117 rushing). Defensive scoring? A 31-point per game gap (12.0 PPG in non-conference; 43.7 in conference).
John Rys Plumlee has missed time and left games due to injuries this season, and Tommy McClain has been a formidable fill-in. But based on the splits in conference and non-conference, I have to back the red hot Sooners. Boomer Sooner in this Week 8 college football matchup.
#22 Air Force (6-0) vs. Navy (3-3)
Navy +10; O/U 33.5
Under 33.5 (-110)
Air Force will be without starting quarterback Zac Larrier to lead this high powered Air Force offense. Air Force has just 31 drop backs this season compared to 354 rush attempts (8/92% pass/run split). Navy isn’t much better, with 89 pass plays to 280 on the ground (24/76%). There is a reason the service academy totals always come down throughout the week: the under is 43-10-1 (81%) since 2005. I think that trend continues with Air Force and Navy in this Week 8 college football matchup.
More: Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings
#7 Penn State (6-0) vs. #3 Ohio State (6-0)
Ohio State -4.5; O/U 46
Under 46 (-112)
Penn State currently holds the second-best defense in college football. Ohio State? Third-best. Both programs have average fewer than 10 points allowed per game. The highest mark allowed by either team this season is 17 points, when Ohio State knocked off a then-unbeaten Maryland 37-17. This isn’t saying much, considering both teams have gone through their non-conference schedule and the clear drop-off in talent from the Big Ten’s top three teams.
As a collegiate head coach, James Franklin is 108-51 overall. However, he’s just 13-30 against ranked foes, 3-20 against top-10 teams, and 1-13 against the top-5. In nine away games against top-5 teams, Franklin’s team averages just 15 points per game. There are five road games where Franklin’s teams were also ranked against top-5 teams; that average takes a slight bump to 17 PPG. Penn State’s offense ranks 132nd of 133 teams in explosive play rate.
With all this said, I don’t see Penn State breaking these streaks against this Buckeyes defense. I would not expect this to be the same high scoring, ranked matchup we saw last week in Seattle. Locking in the under at 46 points.
South Carolina (2-4) vs. #20 Missouri (6-1)
Missouri -7.5; O/U 59
Over 59 (-110)
Since Shane Beamer’s arrival in Columbia (SC), the over is 11-3 when the Gamecocks are road underdogs (78%). The over is 6-1 this year when Missouri plays. South Carolina’s defense allows 354.5 passing yards per game in conference play, a bad recipe for a top-10 passer in Brady Cook and top-3 receiver in Luther Burden III. Missouri’s pass defense is tied with LSU and Vanderbilt for the most passing touchdowns allowed (16). Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks should keep this close. I’m expecting a high offensive output in this Week 8 college football matchup.
#2 Michigan (7-0) vs. Michigan State (2-4)
Michigan State +24; O/U 46.5
Michigan: Team Total Over 34.5 (-110)
Michigan’s offense has decimated Big Ten foes since Jim Harbaugh returned. They are averaging 45 PPG in their four Big Ten contest, while clearing their team total in three of four. For Michigan State, they have been abysmal since the Mel Tucker firing. They blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter last week at Rutgers and made freshman like mistakes in the process. Each of Michigan State’s opponents in their last four have cleared their team total, and I think the Wolverines will make it five. Michigan rolls onto 8-0 before their bye week.
Follow me @DrewRoberts_ and let me know your favorite Week 8 college football play
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