Deciphering The Eagles Backfield: Which Running Back To Target For Fantasy Football In 2023

Analyzing The Eagles Backfield: Which Running Back To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football

With the departure of Miles Sanders in free agency, the Eagles have a significant opportunity available in their backfield as we head towards the 2023 season. In fact, Sanders leaves behind 259 vacated carries plus an additional 26 targets. The problem for us as fantasy football enthusiasts, is there is no clear answer as to which running back will benefit the most. Will it be D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, or Kenneth Gainwell? Difficult to decipher running back committees like this typically cause fantasy football drafters to shy away from the backfield altogether.

That may be the easy solution, but in many cases someone emerges from these ambiguous backfields as a major winner. That means the person in your league who figures it out and takes the dive to draft one of these running backs and gets it right, will put their team in an advantageous position versus the rest of the league.

Related: Deciphering The Bears Backfield

The goal of this exercise today is to help you find the correct answer from the Eagles backfield so you can be the one to make that pick. If we get it right, we will gain a huge advantage on our league mates. Think about it—the hit rates in the middle-to-late rounds are not very good. So, if you manage to hit on one, you’re now adding a significant piece to your lineup that you drafted in the same rounds that your league mates are swinging and missing more often than not. Let’s dig in.

The Case For D’Andre Swift

When the Lions drafted Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick, it was only a matter of time before D’Andre Swift’s run in Detroit would come to an end. Sure enough, two days later Swift was traded to the Eagles for a 2025 fourth round pick and a 2023 seventh round pick swap. Swift’s days as a Lion were a roller coaster. His play was inconsistent, the team never committed to him, and he battled a number of injuries. At the same time, he flashed explosiveness, knack for making plays, and one of the better receiving skill sets in the NFL.

For fantasy football, it has felt like every year we’re expecting a Swift breakout but it never happens. However, he seems to always finish as a top-15 running back in fantasy points per game. In fact, he averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game in 13 games in 2021 which was good enough for an RB8 season.

Swift started off strong in 2022 with back-to-back top-6 finishes to begin the year. However, an ankle sprain killed the momentum and cost him three games. The rest of the season was a true roller coaster. He added another six top-24 weeks but was under 10 points four times. Swift was almost completely reliant on the receiving game as he had just four weeks with double-digit carries and finished the year with a career low 99 rush attempts. But even while playing just 34% of the snaps, Swift managed to end the season top-12 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among running backs.

More: David Montgomery: The Best Value in Fantasy Football

Swift showed he doesn’t need a lot of touches to produce RB2 numbers in fantasy football. Of course, to do that he had to be highly efficient. Among running backs, Swift was No.2 in yards per touch (6.3) and top-5 in yards per route (1.78). When given carries, Swift was efficient but also explosive, breaking off a run of 15 yards or more on more than 8% of his rush attempts while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Swift was also No.7 in expected points added and top-3 in fantasy points per opportunity (PlayerProfiler.com). That was in 14 games. 

Swift surely had his most efficient season yet in 2022, but his 2021 numbers weren’t all that bad either. In fact, according to PlayerProfiler, Swift led all running backs in yards created per touch while finishing top-16 in evaded tackles per touch and breakaway run rate.

The point is, when given opportunity, Swift has been far better than the general fantasy football community gives him credit for. That means if the Eagles decide to give him a significant portion of their backfield touches, especially in the passing game, Swift has an elite ceiling. 

The Case For Rashaad Penny

Rashaad Penny’s career has been riddled with injuries. But over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy, Penny has been one of the more productive running backs in the league. He was a league-winner in fantasy football in 2021 with how dominant he was over the last month. For his career, Penny has a yards per carry average of 5.7. To put it in perspective, Nick Chubb’s career average is 5.2. Jonathan Taylor’s is 5.1 and Derrick Henry’s is 4.8. Narrow it down to his 11 starts between 2021-2022, Penny’s average jumps to an amazing 6.8 on 151 rush attempts. Penny started off slow in 2022 before ripping off 157 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. The very next week, though, he fractured his tibia and was done for the season.

More: Breakout Wide Receivers For 2023 Fantasy Football

That was the way his Seahawks career ended. He signed a one-year, $1.35 million deal with the Eagles this offseason. Maybe this is the year he’s finally able to stay healthy. After all, the presence of D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts should take enough of the workload off of his plate to help him stay healthy. 

Penny is a big, physical back who also runs with great explosion and the speed to rip off long runs. He broke off a run of 15 yards or more six times in the five games he played last season which was more than 10% of his carries. He did that at a league-leading 12.6% clip in 2021 (PlayerProfiler). Now he gets to work in one of the best offenses in the league with one of the best run blocking units in the league. If he can fight off the injury bug, 2023 could be a huge season for Rashaad Penny. If he can capture just 70% of Mile Sanders’ vacated rush attempts from last year, Penny could wind up with the first 1,000 yard season of his career and be a weekly starter in fantasy football.

The Case For Kenneth Gainwell

I liked Kenneth Gainwell a lot coming into last season. I thought he had a chance to take on a significant role as the passing downs back In Philadelphia. It didn’t quite work out that way, but he showed us enough to think he can play a big part of the Eagles backfield in 2023 despite the other additions they made at the position. At 5-8, 201 lbs, he’s big enough to be more than just a satellite back. Remember, he ran for over 1,400 yards in 2019 at Memphis while commanding over 60 targets. He’s been efficient in his limited chances in the NFL, averaging over four yards per carry in each season and ranking No.7 in fantasy points per touch in 2022. 

Gainwell’s usage was cranked up in the playoffs when he had back-to-back games with double-digit carries and ended the postseason with 33 attempts and 181 rushing yards (5.5 YPC). 

Gainwell has been good when given opportunity. Unfortunately, the volume to this point in his career hasn’t been enough to be relevant in fantasy football. But if Penny and Swift battle more injuries—neither has been the epitome of health in their careers—Gainwell could really be something in fantasy football. On a limited basis, Gainwell has managed to finish No.7 and No.5 in fantasy points per opportunity thus far in his career. There is absolutely a world where the coaches trust him more than the other running backs or he is the only healthy one for a significant portion of the season and he winds up a weekly starter in our lineups. 

How it all plays out

While it’s tricky to figure out which Eagles running back we want for 2023 fantasy football, there’s little doubt that there’s going to be a ton of production from this backfield. The Eagles are one of the best rushing offenses in the league. They led the NFL in rushing touchdowns, rushing DVOA, and rushing expected points added in 2022 and were top-5 in rushing yards. A lot of that can be attributed to the offensive line which scored the third-highest run blocking grade according to PFF in 2022. Led by Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, Philly’s starting five is widely regarded as the best in the NFL.

That will certainly incentivize the Eagles to continue to call run plays at one of the league’s highest rates. Only the Bears, Falcons and Ravens ran the ball more last season. That is unlikely to change much, even with new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson calling the shots, considering the Eagles will be playing with a lead often and wanting to run out the clock. But who stands to benefit the most?

Leading Rusher

There’s little doubt the Eagles will take at least somewhat of a committee approach to their backfield. Likely to lead the way in carries, though, is free agent signee Rashaad Penny. Penny is the best pure runner of the group and he is built for a between-the-tackles role. His explosiveness and speed could really be dangerous running behind an elite o-line. However, Penny has a long injury history and has maxed out at 119 carries in a single season. Assuming health, he will surpass that but it’s hard to imagine he crosses the 200 attempt threshold. 

RB2

D’Andre Swift, on the other hand, could also approach 150 carries in this offense. As noted earlier, Swift has been far more efficient with his carries than he’s given credit for. But where Swift has been at his best is in the passing game. His versatility will really make things difficult for opposing defenses, especially if they believe he’s a real threat to run the ball. The Eagles now have elite options in the passing game at wide receiver (A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith), tight end (Dallas Goedert), and running back. 

Passing Game

Unfortunately for Swift, though, the Eagles don’t use their running backs in the passing game like the Lions did. While the Lions targeted running backs 115 times in 2022, Eagles backs saw just 61 targets on a league-worst 12.1% target share. It makes sense because while Jared Goff is a statue in the pocket, Jalen Hurts has the ability to take off and run on his own rather than checking it down to his running back. That will really hurt Swift’s ability to reach his full ceiling. Still, Swift will be a major contributor in the Eagles offense.

RB3

Assuming both Swift and Penny stay healthy for the majority of the season would probably be delusional at this point. That’s why Kenneth Gainwell remains a viable option at the end of drafts as well. He won’t get enough work on his own to be a viable fantasy option, but if either Penny or Swift go down, Gainwell can make a push for your flex spot. 

Touchdown Vulture 

We also need to consider that in short yardage and goal line situations, quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to be heavily involved. He accounted for a whopping 13 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season with another five in the playoffs. This will ultimately cap the ceiling of all three running backs. 

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is, the running back with the most upside in the Eagles backfield is D’Andre Swift. His number of carries projects similar to Penny, plus an additional 40-50 targets. His explosiveness and underrated efficiency should prove valuable in one of the league’s best offenses. As well as having the highest ceiling, his target share compared to the other two also allows him the highest floor. He is clearly the Eagles running back with the best outlook for 2023 fantasy football when we don’t factor in cost.

I’m Drafting…

However, we do need to factor ADP and opportunity cost. With a three round difference in ADP on Underdog, Rashaad Penny looks like the best value. At the discounted rate versus Swift, the obvious injury risk and capped touchdown ceiling is much easier to swallow with Penny. To draft Penny, you’re passing up on guys like Brian Robinson, Devon Achane, and Elijah Mitchell who all have similar ADPs. Whereas when you draft Swift, you doing so at the expense of leaving someone like David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco, and Rachaad White on the board. Penny may not have the targets to lean back on, but he should lead the team in rush attempts and will be the top consideration at the goal line outside of Hurts. At a nearly 40 slot discount, I will be drafting Penny far more than I will Swift in my 2023 drafts.

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