Deciphering The Bears Backfield: Which Running Back To Target For Fantasy Football In 2023

Analyzing The Bears Backfield: Which Running Back To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football

After four years as the RB1 in Chicago, David Montgomery left the Bears for Detroit this offseason to sign a three-year, $18 million deal with the Lions. His departure created one of the league’s most difficult running back rooms to decipher for 2023 fantasy football.  Not only is there no clear and obvious workhorse to inherit the RB1 job, but there are three options for fantasy drafters to choose from. Gross, right? But more than likely, one of the three will emerge as the clear winner when we look back at the end of the 2023 season. Will it be Khalil Herbert? He’s clearly the favorite. Or the rookie Roschon Johnson? Everyone loves a rookie breakout. What about D’Onta Foreman? 

Backfield headaches like these typically overwhelm the casual drafters and cause them to avoid a particular backfield altogether. That is certainly taking the easy way out. But what if I told you that running backs who wind up becoming major advantages in season-long fantasy leagues, often come from these ambiguous backfields? Think about it, the hit rates in the middle-to-late rounds are not very good. So, if you manage to hit on one, you’re now adding a significant piece to your lineup that you drafted in the same rounds that your leaguemates are swinging and missing. Take James Robinson. Or Elijah Mitchell. Or Tyler Allgeier. These are extreme examples, but all three were afterthoughts in drafts before their breakout seasons. Their “free” price tag is what made them so valuable. 

That’s why our mission today is to peel back the onion and determine which Bears running back we want for fantasy football. If we get it right, we will gain a huge advantage on our league mates. So let’s dig in.

Related: Running Backs Who Are Massive Values In 2023

The Case For Khalil Herbert 

We’ll start with the leader in the clubhouse. Khalil Herbert’s ADP currently resides in the 11th round on Underdog where he is the RB40 off the board. Herbert is entering his third season in the NFL after the Bears drafted him in the sixth round in 2021. In two years behind Montgomery, Herbert has a combined 1,165 rushing yards, 23 receptions, and seven touchdowns. He has played well in the few opportunities he has had to lead the Bears backfield. When  Montgomery missed Week 3 last season, Herbert went off for 169 total yards and two touchdowns on his way to the overall RB1 finish. 

Even on a bigger sample, Herbert has been efficient. On his 129 carries in 2022, Herbert ranked top-5 in true yards per carry, No.7 in yards per touch, and No.7 in evaded tackles per touch. He also had a fairly high breakaway run rate of 5.4% which ranked inside the top-24 running backs (PlayerProfiler.com). Herbert has scored at least 15 fantasy points in five of the eight games during his career where he had at least 12 rush attempts (CBS Sports). At 5-9, 210lbs, the former Virginia Tech star has the size and athleticism to be an effective workhorse in the NFL. 

The Case For Roschon Johnson 

The Bears drafted Roshcon Johnson in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnson spent most of his college career in the shadow of Bijan Robinson, but he flashed an exceptional skill set when given opportunity. At Texas, Johnson showed excellent vision, patience, and instincts as a runner. He’s a big back at 6-0, 219 lbs who runs with a dangerous mix of power and finesse. Johnson has the athleticism to be a lead back in the NFL. Even in a part time role, Johnson averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last two seasons at Texas for a combined 1,123 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Where he really gets the edge in the Bears backfield, though, is with his receiving skills. Because he was behind Robinson, the numbers don’t accurately reflect his true talent in this area of the game, but Johnson proved to be a natural receiver when given the chance. He caught 25 passes over his last two seasons and had 23 as a true freshman. In a backfield where he’s competing with two backs who are clearly not pass catchers, this gives Johnson a real edge for playing time. Scouts will agree that Johnson is one of the better pass-blocking running backs to enter the NFL in recent seasons which will make his case for a third-down role that much stronger.

If Johnson can capture a significant role on passing downs, that will really open up his ceiling from a fantasy football standpoint. Let’s say Khalil Herbert is the RB1 but goes down with an injury, Johnson could presumably take on 60% of Herbert’s rush attempts on top of his third down role. In that case, he would become a weekly starter in fantasy lineups.

More: David Montgomery: The Best Value in Fantasy Football

The Case For D’Onta Foreman 

D’Onta Foreman has been hanging onto fantasy relevance for the last few years and he will try to do it again with the Bears in 2023. Foreman proved to be an effective between-the-tackles runner with the Panthers last season. With Christian McCaffrey traded to the 49ers midway through the season, Foreman took over as the team’s primary option on early downs. He showed he still has plenty of juice at age 26, topping the 100-yard mark five times. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry and was top-10 in the NFL in runs of 15 yards or more. Now in Chicago, Foreman is the veteran of the Bears backfield. That could give him an edge in his efforts to lock-down a significant portion of the first and second downs work. 

Predicting How It Plays Out

There is certainly opportunity to be had in the Bears backfield. Afterall, the team ran the ball on 56.2% of their plays in 2022. We have to go all the way back to the 2009 Jets to find a higher rate. Of course, 160 attempts came from the quarterback position, but it’s clear that the Bears offense prioritizes the run game. The addition of offensive tackle Darnell Wright with the 10th overall pick will help create more running lanes. The overall offensive efficiency should improve as well with another year of experience for quarterback Justin Fields, more comfort in the offensive system, and the acquisition of wide receiver D.J. Moore. While that may not directly impact the run game, a more efficient offensive unit creates more opportunities for everyone in the offense.

Early Downs

Khalil Herbert appears to be first in line for opportunity. ADP data indicates that the general fantasy football market agrees, as he is the first Bears running back off the board. However, his RB40 rank reveals just how uncertain this backfield situation is. Herbert’s familiarity with the coaching staff, offense, and teammates gives him the initial edge. His history of efficiency, albeit in a small sample, will help him retain the top spot. He will likely begin the season as the top touch-getter, particularly on early downs and at the goal line. Nonetheless, both Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman will be involved from the start. 

The Passing Downs Role

This backfield could begin the season as messy as the ADPs indicate, but as roles evolve, there’s a real chance the rookie Johnson emerges as the favorite in passing situations. Of the three, Johnson has the clear edge in this area. That’s because neither Herbert nor Foreman possess the receiving skills to be a true three-down threat. In five years of college football, Herbert caught just 34 total passes (6.8 per season). In the NFL, he has just 23 on 28 targets. Foreman’s receiving profile is even worse. He caught just 13 passes in college and has just 23 receptions in five NFL seasons. This is where the door opens for someone else to gain an opportunity in this backfield. 

RB2

We’ve already covered Johnson’s ability in this area but now we know how huge of an edge he really has. Unfortunately, though, the Bears only targeted running backs 61 total times in 2022, so I’m not sure the passing volume will be enough in this offense to make that role too fantasy friendly on its own, but it gets him on the field. And once on the field, Johnson may perform well enough to cut into early-down and red zone work. He could at least overtake Foreman for second in line for between-the-tackles carries. That could equal 7-10 carries on average. Unfortunately, his expected 2-3 targets won’t be enough to make him a reliable option in fantasy football.

As for Foreman, he’s likely the odd man out here. He’ll start the season behind Herbert but ahead of Johnson. However, Johnson’s receiving skills will warrant increased usage, likely at Foreman’s expense.

More: How To Build Your Own Football Projections For 2023: A Guide

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is, Khalil Herbert is the safest choice out of the Bears backfield. However, expectations should be tempered, as he will share carries with both Foreman and Johnson early on. While I expect Herbert to retain his role atop the depth chart for the duration of the season, he will be an inconsistent option for fantasy football. Even if he’s taking 15 carries per game, he’s going to be severely lacking in valuable touches. Quarterback Justin Fields is a major threat to vulture touchdowns at the goal line. Both of Herbert’s running mates are as well. And we’ve already determined Herbert will be minimally involved in the passing game which puts a heavy cap on his fantasy scoring potential.

I’m Drafting…

That means, if I’m drafting a running back from the Bears backfield, it’s actually going to be Roschon Johnson. That’s because I anticipate he will capture the RB2 job by the second half of the season on top of a role on passing downs. This is a pure upside play. If anything were to happen to Herbert, Johnson could be in line for a significant workload. He has the explosiveness, size, and involvement in the passing game to unlock the highest ceiling of any Bears running back in 2023.

We want to know your thoughts on this Bears running back situation. Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!

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