Breakout Running Backs For 2023 Fantasy Football
The Next Breakout Running Back Will Be…?
Plenty of fantasy players make a massive jump in production from one year to the next. At the running back position, most of these players are young, have little more than a year or two of NFL experience, or have been thrust into a lead role based on a player being cut or traded. Last year, backs like Tony Pollard, Jamaal Williams, and Rhamondre Stevenson took big leaps forward and became fantasy mainstays last year. Rookies Kenneth Walker, Tyler Allgeier, and Isaiah Pacheco flashed and helped fantasy managers win titles.
For this list, I highlight two rookie candidates who could have massive fantasy seasons at the start of their careers and five other backs who could jump up a tier based on last season’s performance. Let’s see who could be the next breakout running back for fantasy in 2023!
Breakout Rookies: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs
I wanted to separate the rookies for this list as they are not candidates to “jump up a tier” in fantasy production since this will be their first year in the league.
It is pretty clear that Bijan Robinson will see a massive workload in Atlanta. After being drafted as the eighth overall pick in this past April’s NFL Draft, the Falcons made the statement that regardless of rostering a second-year back that went for over 1,000 yards in his rookie season, they wanted to take a generational talent to lead their offense.
As you can see, Robinson dominated on every level in college. Not only is he a generational talent as a runner, but he excels as a receiver. The Falcons’ coaching staff has moved him around the entire offense so far in camp. The rookie is the new focal point of the offense, and he has not even taken a snap in the pros. Robinson has true top-five upside and is a clear first-round fantasy pick in 2023.
Jahmyr Gibbs may not have the same fantasy ceiling as Robinson, but he was selected 12th overall this past April by the Detroit Lions. It was a puzzling choice, as the team had just signed former Chicago running back David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract. However, with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift gone, the addition of Gibbs was a good one, at least for fantasy.
The Lions ranked third in rushing touchdowns, second in most 40-yard or more gains, and 11th in total rushing yards. With Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games due to gambling and the remainder of the wide receiver corps behind Amon-Ra St. Brown being lackluster at best, Gibbs could slot in as the No. 2 target in the passing game starting in Week One.
The presence of Montgomery, especially around the goal line, will lower Gibbs’ overall scoring ceiling. That said, Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift were viable fantasy options last season. With the high draft capital invested in Gibbs, it would be a shock to see him carry the ball fewer than 150 times. Add in a high target share, and the rookie is shaping up to be a solid RB2 in his first season as a pro.
Breece Hall
An ACL injury in Week Seven led to a short season for the most impressive rookie running back of the 2022 season. While Kenneth Walker will get the praise for finishing as the highest-ranking rookie back for fantasy last year, Hall was on pace to outproduce him.
Hall was on pace to record 194 carries for 1,124 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tack on his pace of 46 receptions on 75 targets for 529 yards and three receiving touchdowns, and he was on pace for 256.6 fantasy points in Half-PPR, good enough to finish as the RB6 overall.
The 2022 rookie did this with the worst-rated quarterback play in the entire league and now gets to play alongside Aaron Rodgers. The former four-time league MVP has routinely checked the ball down to running back Aaron Jones for multiple years, solidifying Hall’s high target share in 2023. With a shot at over 200 carries and likely to rank top five in total targets, Hall should become a top 10 RB with no issue in 2023. He just has to get onto the field.
More: Garrett Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
J.K. Dobbins
The collective fantasy community has been waiting for years on this breakout. J.K. Dobbins has dealt with injuries that have held him to eight games in the past two years. Now two years removed from the injury, Dobbins enters 2023 at full strength. The competition behind the fourth-year back has not changed, with only Gus Edwards remaining as the main complementary back.
Over the last eight games of last year, Dobbins averaged 9.7 fantasy points per game, 5.7 yards per carry, and recorded over 500 rushing yards. He was on pace for nearly 1,200 yards on the ground and just under 200 carries. That is an impressive number, especially after considering that he missed six games from Weeks 6-13. With only two rushing touchdowns to his name last season, there is a ton of room for fantasy growth in 2023.
The potential target total is Dobbins’ biggest obstacle to elite fantasy success. He is in the perfect offense to succeed on the ground but has recorded only 32 targets in his 23 games played. That is an average of just 1.4 per game. He will need to score plenty of touchdowns to crack the top 12, but with his high yards per carry, Dobbins has top 24 upside written all over him in 2023.
Rachaad White
White finally started to get some work towards the end of the year during his rookie campaign in 2022. A solid producer in the passing game, White struggled on the ground behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league. However, White flashed his fantasy potential in a limited role, especially as a receiver. Week 10 was where most of his production came into play.
Nearly 66 percent of White’s total fantasy production was scored during this timeframe. Keep in mind the rookie was not the starting back. Leonard Fournette was still leading the charge as the RB1 in Tampa but ended up losing the role to White by the season’s end. The rookie finished as the RB29 during this time, with Fournette ranking as the RB35 overall.
Had White found the end zone more often, we would look at him in a much different light. However, the Tampa Bay offense will look much different in 2023. Tom Brady is officially retired, and journeyman Baker Mayfield is the new starter. This is a massive downgrade for the offense as a whole and will bring the total amount of plays and passes down.
The Buccaneers will likely focus more on the running game in 2023. Fournette’s departure frees up 189 carries and 83 targets. With the passing volume going down, the 83 targets will look more like 50 to spread around the RB corps. The competition behind White is shallow at best, and he is the clear top option to lead the team in carries. With 60-plus targets heading his way, White has the making of an RB2 in 2023, even in a bad offense.
Alexander Mattison
The hype machine has catapulted Alexander Mattison up the rankings with the departure of veteran workhorse Dalvin Cook. Mattison has been the top handcuff in fantasy for the past several years. When he has been asked to fill in for Cook, he has consistently provided top-15 fantasy production, with more than a few top-five finishes.
Now that Cook’s time in Minnesota has come to an end, Mattison is primed to be the lead back. It is tough to imagine the Vikings giving the fifth-year back the same workload as Cook. It led to multiple missed games, and they do not have the depth to lose Mattison long-term. However, even with a more focused passing attack after the addition of rookie first-rounder Jordan Addison, Mattison should still receive over 200 carries and at least 50 targets.
Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride are his main competition in 2023. Chandler has handled six carries in the pros, and McBride is a seventh-round rookie. Mattison is primed for a ton of usage that should keep him squarely in the top 24 conversations. Do not allow expectations to get out of hand. However, the veteran is primed for a breakout campaign even if he is not the same caliber of back as Cook was for fantasy.
Khalil Herbert
Many have been excited about the potential of Khalil Herbert since he first had to step into the starting lineup for David Montgomery. The 25-year-old looked more explosive whenever he touched the ball compared to the veteran back and now has the chance to take over as the lead runner in 2023. There is a catch, as Chicago added former Carolina Panther starter D’Onta Foreman and drafted rookie Roschon Johnson in the fourth round.
Herbert averaged nearly six yards per carry last season, showing off his explosive nature as a runner. With opposing defenses needing to focus on stopping rushing quarterback Justin Fields, Herbert was able to take advantage of open lanes and gash his way to big yardage on every touch.
The third-year back has not had much opportunity to be a receiver. When targeted, Herbert has been above average. His production as a receiver will not boost his fantasy production much, but with Montgomery gone, he should see 40 or so targets in 2023.
There are three big hurdles Herbert will need to overcome to max out as an RB2 this year. First off, he will need to win the starting role outright against Foreman. The former Panther was impressive in relief of Christian McCaffrey last season and could steal goal-line touches. Secondly, the 25-year-old will need to fend off Roschon Johnson from taking his work as a receiver. Johnson has impressed in camp and is encroaching on that third-down role.
Read More: Breakout Quarterbacks
Lastly, Herbert will need to hope Fields does not siphon away all of the goal-line touchdown production. We have seen offense with a rushing quarterback like Philadelphia favor using their quarterback on the goal line. However, the RB and QB can coexist and share the touchdown production. Herbert just needs to have those carries given to the RB corps go his way.
The third-year back definitely has the most hurdles to clear on this list, but make no mistake, if he gets a high carry count and scores enough, he is talented enough to finish as an RB2 in 2023.
Get a Personalized Podcast For Your Fantasy League!
Follow me on Twitter @TripleFTP! Also, check out our 2023 Projections Kit, the easiest way to build out your in-depth rankings to be best prepared for your upcoming drafts! Use my promo code “Ryan” at checkout to get 25% off your purchase.
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | REDRAFT | ROOKIES
Draft With Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER to double your deposit!
