Do Not Draft These Players In 2023 Best Ball

Having player takes in best ball is important. Being overweight on certain players can boost your odds of winning, but knowing who not to draft is just as crucial. Last year, if you completely faded players such as Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, and Deebo Samuel, you were probably feeling pretty good. It’s not a guaranteed path to success, but fading players can help you avoid dead roster spots come playoff time. I have multiple players I’m actively fading, but I’d like to highlight my three biggest fades in this article. Let’s get started with someone I couldn’t stop drafting last year…

(All ADP and scoring notes will be tied to Underdog Fantasy’s format.)

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DJ Moore, WR, Bears (ADP 47.7, WR26)

If you read my content last off-season, you knew how much I loved Moore. A lot can change in a year, though. Moore did get a QB upgrade with Fields, but I don’t love the rest of his situation. The Bears ran the ball at a historic rate last year, with 56.2% of their plays being runs; the highest mark since the Jets in 2009 (59.2%). I’m sure Chicago will pass a little more now that DJ is there, but they will still be a run-first team. They wouldn’t have drafted Roschon Johnson or signed D’Onta Foreman in free agency if they wanted to stop pounding the rock. For fun, let’s take a look at how the Bears’ top wide receiver ranked each week in 0.5 PPR last year:

Again, this was the best wide receiver performance each week by the Bears. Don’t even get me started on the rest. Moore is obviously better than anyone from last year’s receiver group, but those are pretty damning stats for someone who’s being drafted as a WR2. Last year, the Bears threw the ball just 377 times, a little over 22 per game. Moore had 27.7% target share in Carolina. Even if you give him a bump to a clean 30% (which is truly elite) and generously project the Bears for 25 attempts per game, you’re looking at about 7-8 targets per game for Moore. I just don’t see enough volume to justify this price, unless he’s outrageously efficient.

On top of that, he didn’t win much as a route runner. He ranked 78th in route win rate, 80th in win rate vs man, and #38 in target separation vs man. Look at it this way: If you want to bet on the Bears, just take Fields a few picks earlier. He doesn’t necessarily need Moore to have a great season. On the other hand, Moore certainly needs Fields to pay off his price tag. I’d just rather take Fields or another WR (London, Watson, Kirk, Williams, McLaurin) over Moore.

More: How To Build Projections In 2023

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions (ADP 98.8, WR49)

This one is gonna hurt some feelings, but you need to hear the truth: Williams is a horrible pick at his current ADP. Obviously, his six-game suspension means you get ten games (at best) where he can be used in your roster. It’s hard to judge him on a rookie season where he barely played, as he received just nine targets in six games, with just 34 routes run. That’s way too small a sample size to make a conclusion one way or the other. However, we can look at historical data and compare it to this situation. Let’s start by looking at some other underachieving 1st-round rookie wide receivers in recent memory:

I’m not saying that Williams is guaranteed to be as bad as those guys, but it’s certainly not a good list to be on. Santana Moss and Mike Williams are the only ones that ever did anything noteworthy for fantasy, and most of the rest ended up as huge busts. Since Williams is the current WR49, let’s compare him to last year’s WR49: Brandon Cooks. Cooks finished with 117.1 0.5 PPR points last year.

With Williams set to miss six games, he would have to average 11.7 PPG in the other ten games he plays (assuming he plays in all of them). Do you think Williams is capable of that? Sure, he could be, but it will be halfway through his second season before he’s even started a game. 11.7 PPG seems like a lot to ask for someone who’s basically a rookie at that point. The Lions also have a lot of mouths to feed, with two talented running backs, an alpha receiver, a promising rookie tight end, and some other key role players. The talent is certainly there with Williams, but the cards are stacked against him.

Odell Beckham, WR, Ravens (ADP 111.6, WR52)

While Williams is a bad pick, no pick is worse in all of fantasy than Odell Beckham. Beckham, who hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl in 2022, is going ahead of players who could be the WR1 on their own teams (Jonathan Mingo, Nico Collins, Jalin Hyatt, Rashee Rice just to name a few). Beckham has way more target competition than those guys, and none of them are recovering from an ACL tear. While I can appreciate what Beckham did for the Rams, I don’t see any scenario where he returns to that form.

The Fantasy Footballers did a great analysis of post-ACL tear performances by receivers, and I encourage you to check it out after this. They found that in many scenarios, players really struggled the year after ACL surgery. Beckham, himself, declined after his 2020 ACL tear in Cleveland. In his first year back, he saw big dips in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per target, yards per route run, and fantasy PPG. Now, he did play better once he joined the Rams, but it’s still not like he was setting the world ablaze. In eight games for LA, he caught 48 passes for 593 yards and 7 TDs. Not bad, but again, not great.

I will admit that the Ravens must really believe in OBJ, because they are paying him a hefty $15 million deal. Still, he has a lot of target competition in Baltimore. Rashod Bateman is a talented receiver, and should be the WR1 if he’s healthy. The Ravens also spent a 1st-round pick on Zay Flowers, an electric playmaker from Boston College. Nelson Agholor provides solid veteran depth, and he should play a fair amount. We can’t forget Mark Andrews, probably the best tight end in the league not named Travis Kelce.

On top of all that, Beckham has a mobile QB in Lamar Jackson. While Jackson is a good passer, it’s well-document that mobile QBs hold back their teammates more times than not, and Beckham isn’t great enough to demand a big role at this stage in his career. If you want to hear more about how mobile quarterbacks affect their teammates, check out this podcast by JJ Zachariason. He dives in and gives some great analysis.

All of this is too much for Beckham to pay off this price tag in my opinion. I’d rather just get Bateman a round earlier for much higher upside.

Are you fading these players? Am I wrong? Sound off in the comments!

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