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Divisional Round Sunday Slate Leverage Plays
Winning in DFS boils down to finding leverage over the field. For today’s 2-game slate, I think there are plenty of players that are going overlooked for various reasons. Leverage is even more important on 2 game slates because there aren’t many options. Just last night, we saw Eagles RB Kenny Gainwell make the winning lineup at 3% ownership. Identifying plays like that are the key to winning these small slates. The last thing I’ll say is this: I’m not just listing these plays for the sake of calling out low owned guys. I actually want to play them for many reasons, and they also fit the criteria I’m looking for. With all that being said, let’s dive in!
*Prices and scoring are based on Draft Kings.*
George Kittle, TE, 49ers – $5700
I understand he’s the most expensive TE on the slate, but I can’t fathom how Kittle projects to be the lowest owned among four starters. He’s been on an absolute tear recently, scoring seven touchdowns and averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. Kittle’s route participation is elite, ranking 2nd in the league among TEs at 90% (per PlayerProfiler). Against the vaunted Dallas pass rush, I think we could see many quick passes to Kittle by QB Brock Purdy. We know how much of a monster Kittle is after the catch. Touchdowns aren’t everything, and are hard to predict, but Kittle has the highest upside by far of any TE on this slate
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals – $5800
Despite the high game total and enticing game environment, it doesn’t appear that many people want to click Higgins’ name. He projects as just the 6th highest owned WR. He’s disappointed in his last two appearances, but Higgins’ ceiling is still up there with the best. We’ve seen the Clemson product score 25+ points, four times this year. If the Bills really try to take Ja’Marr Chase out of the game, Higgins would stand to benefit the most from that. At $2000 cheaper and half the projected ownership as his superstar teammate, give me Higgins for some exposure to this game.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys – $6100
From a value perspective, Dak projects as the worst QB on the slate. However, this also means he’s probably the lowest owned. I think people are overreacting to the San Francisco defense. While their front seven is outstanding, their secondary isn’t really anything special. We’ve seen them give up big games to QBs and WRs multiple times this year, including DK Metcalf just last weekend. All of Dak’s stacking partners are low owned outside of Dalton Schultz, but you can still play them together and get unique by double or triple stacking the Dallas signal caller.
With the 49ers’ run defense being as good as it is, Dak may be forced to throw early and often against a secondary that is certainly beatable. Dak is also a great option if you think the first game disappoints. I’d expect around 65-70% of lineups to have either Allen or Burrow as their QB. Dak is in a great spot.
Dart throw: Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Bills – $3300
It feels gross clicking McKenzie’s name, but I think he’s certainly worth the risk if he’s ends up as insanely low as he’s projected to. He hasn’t done anything noteworthy since his 22.3 points on Thanksgiving, but his big play ability makes him worth a gamble. It’s unclear if McKenzie will retain his previous role upon return, as Cole Beasley and Khalil Shakir have held down the fort in his absence. Still, McKenzie’s upside is hard to pass up at the near stone-minimum price tag.
Who are your favorite plays today? Let me know on Twitter!
