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The 2022 NFL regular season has come to a close. While sad for fantasy players, opportunity still waits in DFS as the playoffs kick off on Saturday at 1:30 PM PST when the Seattle Seahawks visit the San Francisco 49ers for a Wild Card matchup. The 49ers closed the season as one of the hottest teams in football behind Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy, winning their final 10 games and dominating in all facets of the game, securing the 2nd seed in the NFC. The Seahawks were able to squeeze into the playoffs as the 7th seed behind a career resurgence from quarterback Geno Smith. The 49ers come in as 9.5 point favorites, but the beautiful thing about the playoffs is anything can happen. What players will have the biggest impact on Saturday afternoon? Let’s dive in and figure out what players will help you win some money in your DFS showdowns.
Showdown Captain: Christian McCaffrey
Don’t overthink this. CMC has been nothing but dominant since coming to San Francisco. He was able to stay healthy for the entire season and gave his normal elite production in fantasy, finishing 2nd amongst running backs. This matchup against the Seahawks is too juicy to get cute with, as the Seahawks allow 21 fantasy PPG to running backs (30th). Seattle allows the 2nd most attempts per game and 115 rushing yards per game (27th) to the position. The 49ers and Seahawks faced off in week 15, a game where CMC ran the ball 26 times for 108 yards (4.2 YPC) and a touchdown. He also caught 6 passes on 8 targets for 30 yards. The Seahawks, on average, allow 5 receptions and 43 yards receiving to running backs per game. Expect Shanahan to show off his new toy in the first round of the playoffs and for CMC to find the end zone multiple times.
Flex Play: George Kittle
Kittle came to life towards the end of the season, scoring seven touchdowns and recording at least four catches in his last four games and showed a serious connection with Purdy. Pair that up with a Seattle defense that allows the most fantasy PPG to tight ends (10.35) and the largest yards per reception (14.35), and Kittle is in line for another big game. In week 15 when these two teams met, Kittle had four catches for 93 yards and two touchdowns.
Flex Play: DK Metcalf
No one benefited more this season from Geno Smith’s resurgence than Metcalf, a season where DK posted his season-high in receptions and 2nd highest yardage total. Geno appeared to trust DK, targeting him 8+ in times in seven out of the last eight games. While the 49ers defense is tough, if there is one way to beat them it is through the air, ranking 26th in PPG to wide receivers. Wide receivers have also scored six touchdowns over the last three games versus the 49ers, and DK is ranked 2nd this year with 27 red zone targets. Metcalf has also found success in the playoffs in the past, recording 16 catches, 25 targets, 219 yards, and three touchdowns in three games
Flex Play: 49ers Defense
The Seahawks offense has been middle of the pack against defenses this year, but this 49ers defense is elite, finishing 3rd in fantasy points this year. In week 15 the Niners defense held Seattle to 13 points on the road, recording 3 sacks and recovering one fumble. SF has intercepted multiple passes in two straight games, while Geno Smith was picked twice last weekend. This will be Smith’s first playoff start, expect the 49ers defense to pressure Smith and cause multiple turnovers by the Seahawks.
Value Play: Noah Fant
The 49ers have been solid versus tight ends this year, but the position has had some solid outputs lately. Including Darren Waller (three catches for 72 yards and a touchdown), Logan Thomas (6 catches for 35 yards), and Fant (5 catches for 32 yards and a touchdown.) Will Dissly was placed on IR after week 16, and Fant saw 63%+ snap share in both games since. In a game where the Seahawks could be playing catch up and find themselves throwing frequently, Fant could benefit as the primary pass-catching tight end.
Value Play: Elijah Mitchell
For the same reasons listed above for CMC, Mitchell has some appeal as a flex. He is an elite runner when healthy, averaging 6.2 YPC this season, which would rank 1st among running backs. In his first game back from the IR last week, Mitchell had 55 yards on 5 carries and punched in both of his red zone carries. All it would take Saturday is a couple of big runs and a touchdown for Mitchell to pay off in DFS.
Fade Play: 49ers wide receivers
Seattle’s secondary has been great against wide receivers, especially lately. As a unit the Seahawks allow 10 receptions a game to WR’s (3rd) and only 117 yards (2nd). This is in part due to the fact that teams know they can run all over their defense, but the Seahawks have not allowed more than three receptions to a wide receiver since week 14. While the Niners boast a good duo between Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, it is not a matchup worth throwing your DFS money at.
Fade Play: Geno Smith
Even though the 49ers struggle against wide receivers, they dominate against quarterbacks. They only allow 1.18 TD/game versus quarterbacks (7th), limiting Smith’s ability for the big game. Geno also has 46 Danger Plays (most) and 41 interceptable passes (most), while the Niners are 1st in the NFL with 20 interceptions, including six in their last four games. Geno threw 44 passes in the week 15 matchup vs. San Francisco, and with the possible game flow there is a good chance that his passing attempts get up towards that number again. (For sports bettors: Geno Smith 1+ interception at -154 is my favorite bet in this game.)
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