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Each week I will help you construct your lineups through the analogy of building a house. Each section/room will consist of my favorite plays that fit the criteria.
Blueprint
You can’t build without a blueprint so let’s look over the slate to get a better idea of what we’re getting into.
Highest Game Totals
NE @ BUF 43.5
MIN @ CHI 43
NYG @ PHI 43
CAR @ NO 42
LAR @ SEA 41.5
Lowest Game Totals
NYJ @ MIA 37
HOU @ IND 38
BAL @ CIN 39.5
ARI @ SF 39.5
LAC @ DEN 40
Highest Team Totals
PHI 28.75
SF 26.75
BUF 25.25
MIN 24.25
SEA 23.75
Lowest Team Totals
ARI 12.75
NYG 14.75
BAL 15.25
WAS 16.5
NYJ 17
Overview
Week 18 is absolute chaos. Motivation plays a huge part. Some teams will be resting players while others will play part of the game. Keeping up on on the actives and inactives will be key even heading into the late games. You should be comfortable with playing some sketchy players in your lineup. Stacking is always an option but there’s probably less necessity for game stacks and bring backs in most of these games.
CAR @ NO
NYJ @ MIA
Are two games that I like that should go off normally with no playoff implications.
Foundation–
These are my core guys that I am building around. The players I’ll have the most exposure to.
QB
Sam Darnold $5,300
I said you’re gonna have to play some sketchy players and I wasn’t lying. Darnold has been great the last two weeks. He has the 4th most passing yards over the last four weeks. He’s also had at least five rushing attempts in back to back games. This is one of the few games that we don’t have to worry about motivation and has the added benefit of being in a dome.
Joe Flacco $4,800
I know this seems crazy but hear me out. Flacco started the first three weeks of the season and averaged 300 yards and threw a total of five TDs. He also averaged 51.7 pass attempts a game. That’s a ton of opportunities at sub $5k. Miami has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs this season.
RB
Ken Walker $6,400
Walker has the 2nd most rushing yards over the last two weeks averaging 24.5 carries and 120 rushing yards. The Seahawks have been heavily reliant on him and will continue to do so in a must win game. The Rams have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards over the last four weeks.
Cam Akers $6,200
Akers has the most rushing yards and the 2nd most broken tackles over the last two weeks. He’s averaged 5.7 yards per carry in those games. Seattle has allowed the most points to opposing RBs over the last six weeks.
WR
DJ Moore $6,100
Moore has been great with Darnold with at least five catches and scoring a TD in three straight games. He has a 32.4% target share, has been targeted on 28% of his routes and has averaged 17.1 yards per reception over that span.
Garrett Wilson $5,800
Wilson is a star and is continually under priced. He has over 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie with very inconsistent QB play. In the first three games of his career with Flacco he averaged 11 targets, 6 catches and 71.3 yards. Miami has allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing WRs over the last six weeks.
TE
Tyler Higbee $4,400
Over the last three weeks, Higbee has a 28.6% target share and has been targeted on one of every three routes run. Seattle is terrible against opposing TEs. Only Arizona has given up more points to the position.
Tyler Conklin $3,600
Flacco offers nothing with his legs so it makes sense to double stack. In three games with Flacco, Conklin averaged eight targets, six receptions and 46.6 yards. The Dolphins have allowed the 3rd most points and 2nd most TDs to opposing TEs this season.
Kitchen–
These are the guys that EAT!!! Guys on the slate that have the most opportunities.
Targets last 4 Weeks
RB
Leonard Fournette 25
Saquon Barkley 24
James Conner 23
Christian McCaffrey 22
D’Andre Swift 22
WR
Justin Jefferson 52
Keenan Allen 43
DeVonta Smith 41
AJ Brown 39
Mike Evans 39
JaMarr Chase 39
TE
TJ Hockenson 45
Dalton Schultz 28
Mark Andrews 26
George Kittle 26
Trey McBride 25
Opportunities Last 4 Weeks
QB Rushes
Tyler Huntley 33
Justin Fields 32
Daniel Jones 29
Josh Allen 26
Jalen Hurts 24
RB Rushes
Christian McCaffrey 74
Najee Harris 74
Nick Chubb 73
Cam Akers 66
Ezekiel Elliott 66
Pass Attempts
Tom Brady 192
Kirk Cousins 174
Justin Herbert 152
Geno Smith 149
Jared Goff 148
Living Room–
This is where everyone is hanging out. These are the most popular/ highest owned plays.
QB
Jalen Hurts 16%
Josh Allen 15%
Geno Smith 12%
RB
Ken Walker 22%
Dalvin Cook 22%
Najee Harris 20%
Alvin Kamara 18%
Tyler Allgeier 16%
WR
Justin Jefferson 23%
Jakobi Meyers 20%
Rashid Shaheed 17%
Stefon Diggs 14%
Garrett Wilson 14%
TE
Pat Freiermuth 18%
Mark Andrews 17%
Tyler Higbee 13%
Dallas Goedert 10%
David Njoku 8%
DEF
SF 15%
MIN 14%
NYJ 13%
Bedroom–
These are your sleepers. My favorite guys that are going overlooked and under owned that can gain you leverage in GPPs.
QB
Sam Darnold 4%
Joe Burrow 7%
Joe Flacco 2%
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson 5%
Nick Chubb 6%
Boston Scott 2%
WR
AJ Brown 7%
Terry McLaurin 4%
Tyler Lockett 8%
TE
George Kittle 6%
Tyler Conklin 5%
Dawson Knox 2%
The Roof–
These are the ceiling plays. The guys with the highest upside and projected points.
*Based on an aggregate of players 75th percentile projections
QB
Josh Allen $8,400
Projected 32.8 pts
Jalen Hurts $8,200
Projected 31.7 pts
Joe Burrow $7,300
Projected 31.2 pts
RB
Christian McCaffrey $9,300
Projected 33.8 pts
Austin Ekeler $8,900
Projected 32.6 pts
Dalvin Cook $7,300
Projected 30.7 pts
Joe Mixon $7,100
Projected 30 pts
Alvin Kamara $6,600
Projected 29.8 pts
WR
Justin Jefferson $9,100
Projected 34.6 pts
JaMarr Chase $8,400
Projected 34.1 pts
Ceedee Lamb $8,200
Projected 33.1 pts
AJ Brown $8,000
Projected 31.5 pts
Stefon Diggs $7,900
Projected 30.5 pts
TE
Mark Andrews $5,400
Projected 32.6 pts
George Kittle $6,000
Projected 32.3 pts
TJ Hockenson $5,700
Projected 30.2 pts
Dallas Goedert $4,900
Projected 29.6 pts
Tyler Higbee $4,400
Projected 28.6 pts
