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This evening, two offenses atop of the AFC food chain square off as the visiting Buffalo Bills take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football.
Josh Allen vs Joe Burrow is the game of the year (still a little time left, though). Buffalo is coming off a relatively easy victory in Chicago, while Cincinnati narrowly defeated the Patriots 22-18 in New England for their seventh-straight win.
Many advanced metrics rank these teams closely, with the Bills owning just a slight edge. One area where there’s some substantive difference is with down efficiency.
On early downs, Buffalo has a 0.12 offensive EPA/play (2nd in the NFL), and Cincinnati ranks 11th at 0.03 (rbsdm.com/stats). If we switch it over to defense, that’s where things gets interesting. Through Week 16, the Bills allowed 0.37 dropback EPA/play on 3rd downs, worst in the league.
This also happens to be an area where Joey B shines bright:
If you’re a Bengals fan, it’s reassuring to know that the offense is capable of overcoming a multiple-score deficit, like their second-half comeback in Tampa Bay. Leaving MNF in the win column is possible if they’re efficient on late downs and can extend drives. There is one catch..
Trenches: The Bills head into Week 17 with a 79.0 PFF pass rush grade, top-five among defenses. They’re licking their chops as they prepare for the Bengals’ bottom-three pass blocking unit (58.5 grade). RT La’el Collins suffered a torn ACL against the Patriots, so either Isaiah Prince or Hakeem Adeniji will fill in his place.
Joe Burrow’s made some gradual adjustments in the pocket. Over the last two games, 65% of his dropbacks are under 2.5 secs (PFF). As a result, Burrow averaged just 6.5 air yards/attempt.
Another factor playing into downfield passing are the two-high looks he faces on a consistent basis. Nobody’s trying to play tag with WR’s Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins over the top, so we should expect Buffalo to defend this unit in a similar fashion. Another piece in all of this is RB Joe Mixon. If he’s able to do damage against a lighter box, it’ll force Buffalo’s hand and potentially open it up for the receivers downfield.
X’s and O’s: Throughout this Bengals win streak, over 60% of opposing quarterbacks’ snaps were lined up against Cover 2/3, according to The Edge.
Something’s got to give, because Josh Allen leads the NFL with 133.4 PPR points vs Cover 2/3. On top of that, his 0.22 EPA/play ranks in the top-two. Speaking of top-two; Gabriel Davis has 5 touchdowns against this coverage- second among all wideouts.
Standard procedure here- but another thing Allen has going for him are yards through the air.
From Weeks 1-16, Cincinnati had the third-highest defensive ADOT at 8.8 (Pro Football Reference). Hard to imagine Buffalo skimping on big plays downfield if the opportunities arise, regardless of game script.
WR Stefon Diggs saw just two targets against the Bears and hasn’t caught a touchdown in three straight contests. Ultimate positive regression candidate in this matchup. Over the last month, opposing QB’s threw 18 passes within ten yards of the end zone vs the Bengals’ defense, second-most attempts in the NFL during that span (The Edge).
Normally, I am privy to siding with the slightly “inferior” quarterback/two pro bowl receivers over the latter that’s working with just one legit weapon. However, this game has a lucrative point total, a competitive spread, and non-shaky weather. Josh Allen’s abilities using his arm and legs provide the exact amount of volatility right for the occasion.
Thank you for reading and good luck this week!
