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Two historic college football programs square off in Orlando for the Cheez-It Bowl. Oklahoma, in their 24th straight bowl appearance, takes on Florida State. Florida State is making their first bowl game under Mike Norvell. Their last bowl game came in 2019, a 20-14 loss to Arizona State in the Sun Bowl.
When: Thursday, December 29th @ 5:30 PM ET
Where: Orlando, Florida
Who: Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Spread & Total: Florida State -9.5; O/U 65
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Tale of the Tape: Oklahoma Sooners
A team full of hype, despite the departure of Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, ended in misery for Oklahoma. Yes, they kept their bowl streak alive at a now insane 24-consecutive year streak. But it wasn’t pretty. Oklahoma began the season 9th in the preseason poll. And all seemed fine; 3-0 over teams that didn’t qualify for a bowl game. But when conference play began, it got ugly. Home loss to Kansas State. A blow out at TCU. Shutout against your rival. This was the first time since 2015 Oklahoma had more than two losses – and it wasn’t even the middle of October. It took until late November for Oklahoma to clinch a bowl berth, winning Bedlam.
Offensively, Oklahoma was still strong. Led by Eric Gray, who finished 13th nationally in rushing yards. Gray has opted out of this bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Dillon Gabriel led a strong passing attack (24 touchdowns / 6 interceptions). Low turnovers helped Oklahoma’s turnover differential (+7; T-24th nationally).
Defensively, like most Big 12 teams, Oklahoma is poor. This is the 6th-worse run defense among bowl eligible teams. Four teams with a worse run defense have already played; they are 0-4. This is a bottom-12 scoring defense among bowl eligible teams. Of the nine teams who rank worse and have played, they are 1-8. Oklahoma’s defense has caused 16 interceptions this year, the 6th best mark in the country.
Opt Outs:
RB Eric Gray (Second Team All-Big 12 Selection; 213 carries, 1,366 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns; 33 receptions for 229 receiving yards)
OT Wanya Morris
OT Anton Harrison (First Team All-Big 12 Selection)
C Andrew Raym
DT Jalon Redmond (23 tackles, 4 sacks)
Transfer Portal Departures:
QB Nick Evers
WR Theo Weese (19 receptions, 378 receiving yards (19.8 YPC), 4 touchdowns)
WR Trevon West
LB Clayton Smith
CB Joshua Eaton
CB Kendall Dennis
Players to Know:
WR Marvin Mims
Named to All-Big 12 Football First Team. Led team with 52 receptions for 1,006 yards (19.3 YPC) and 6 touchdowns
DL Ethan Downs
Named to All-Big 12 Football Second Team. 37 tackles (13.5 for loss). Tied for team lead with 4.5 sacks
Tale of the Tape: Florida State Seminoles
Mike Norvell was assumed to be on the hot seat entering year three with a 8-13 record. But the script flipped and Norvell doubled his wins in 2022 going 9-3. Quarterback Jordan Travis’s development was huge for the Seminoles. His YPA jumped from 7.9 to 8.9 in 2022, along with maintaining a high touchdown rate (7.0%). Travis reduced his turnovers dropping his 3.1% interception rate in 2021 down to 1.3% in 2022. Travis also added 62 carries for 472 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. The Seminoles don’t necessarily run the most, but they are effective; 5.5 YPC ranks top-10 nationally.
Defensively, only Texas A&M and Air Force had a better secondary than Florida State. The Seminoles sacked the quarterback 34 times, tied for 22nd nationally. 5.9 yards per attempt is the 9th best mark defensively. It’s the strength of this team, which should fair well against a team without their starting running back and three offensive lineman.
Opt Outs: N/A
Transfer Portal Departures:
OT Lloyd Willis
DT Shambre Jackson
DE George Wilson Jr.
LB Stephen Dix Jr.
CB Sam McCall
Player to Know:
DE Jared Verse
First Team All-ACC Football Selection. 41 tackles (14.5 for loss). 7.5 sacks was the most on the team
RB Trey Benson
True sophomore that leads the 12th best rushing attack. 141 carries for 965 yards (6.8 YPC, 10th nationally) for 9 touchdowns. Added 12 receptions for 111 yards through the air
Bowl Game Trends:
- Favorite has won and covered in last six and eight of last ten.
- Mike Norvell: 0-4 in bowl games; first bowl game at Florida State
Game Synopsis:
Oklahoma is without three offensive lineman and an all-conference player in Gray. This is a rejuvenated Florida State team, seeking that elusive 10th win in Novell’s third season. Meanwhile, the Sooners are likely waiting for this season to be done. They have plenty of opt outs and transfers, while Florida State is healthy and not missing any key role players this season. Florida State’s pass defense should be able to slow Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners. I think Florida State wins this one in their home state, four hours south of campus.
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Florida State
Bowl Mania Confidence: 43/43
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