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If you like points, make sure to check out the Wednesday nightcap. The TaxAct Texas Bowl’s point total is currently set at 72, featuring two of the more up-tempo offenses in FBS. The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Ole Miss Rebels in a battle of the Big 12 and SEC.
When: Wednesday, December 28th @ 9:00 PM ET
Where: Houston
Who: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
Spread & Total: Ole Miss -4.5; O/U 72
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Tale of the Tape: Texas Tech Red Raiders
In Joey McGuire’s first season in Lubbock, he led the Red Raiders to their first seven win regular season since 2015 with Kliff Kingsbury. Their 13th ranked passing attack can be broken into three parts, one for each of their starting quarterbacks. Donovan Smith, who entered the transfer portal and is heading to Houston, started the first five games, leading the team to a 3-2 mark. Smith threw for over 300 yards in three of his starts. Freshman Behren Morton took over midseason, but went 1-3. The last stretch was led by Tyler Shough, who will start the bowl game. He closed the season 3-0 for the Red Raiders, averaging 274 YPG and clinching a bowl berth with a win over Iowa State. Texas Tech averages the most plays per game at 89.1, more than seven more than the second most.
Defensively, Texas Tech ranked middle of the pack in a terrible defensive conference. Tech ranked 7th of 10 teams, allowing 31.9 PPG in conference play. They allowed at least 30 points in six of nine conference games. Their 29 sacks on defense is the best mark among Big 12 schools.
Opt Outs: N/A
Transfer Portal Departures:
QB Donovan Smith
(Started 5 games; 1,505 yards, 66.2% completion rate, 12 touchdowns, eight interceptions; 58 carries for 221 yards and seven touchdowns; 3-2 as starter)
G Michael Shanahan
T Ethan Carde
DT Philip Blidi
OT Logan Brown
S Reggie Pearson Jr.
S Kobee Minor
Players to Know:
QB Tyler Shough
One of three starting quarterbacks for Texas Tech this season. Went 3-0 down the stretch to get the Red Raiders bowl eligible. 59.4% completion, six touchdowns to three interceptions. 38 carries for 225 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
LB Tyree Wilson
Named to All-Big 12 Football First Team. 61 tackles (14 for loss). 7 sacks led the team. Force and recovered a fumble
Tale of the Tape: Ole Miss Rebels
In Lane Kiffin’s first two seasons at Ole Miss, the team was focused on the pass. The Rebels ranked 7th and 22nd, respectively, in 2020 and 2021. But this year called for a change; the Rebels lost Matt Corral to the NFL Draft and welcomed running back Zach Evans from TCU and true freshman Quinshon Judkins. This is the highest mark of non-military academy programs. Rotating in these two backs helps with the 6th quickest tempo in FBS.
Defensively, it’s a tale of two halves for Ole Miss. In their first seven games, when only two of their opponents were bowl eligible (Troy & Kentucky), they surrendered just 20 PPG. Troy ended the year 80th in scoring; Kentucky at 106. The last five games, against four bowl eligible teams, Ole Miss went 1-4 and allowed 33.8 PPG. Each of those five teams scored at least 24 points, and the lone win came against a disappointing Texas A&M team. Ole Miss finished the year 8-4, but only 2-4 against bowl eligible teams.
Opt Outs: N/A
Transfer Portal Departures:
QB Luke Altmyer (Backup)
RB Isaiah Woullard
WR Dannis Jackson
WR Bralon Brown
G Jalen Cunningham
DE Demon Clowney
DE Brandon Mack
LB Jaron Willis
CB Miles Battle (32 tackles, 5 pass deflections)
S MJ Daniels
Player to Know:
RB Quinshon Judkins
All-SEC Football First Team Selection. True freshman led the best non-Military Academy rushing attack. 251 carries for 1,476 yards (5.9 YPC) and 16 touchdowns for the Rebels
DE Tavius Robinson
39 total tackles (seven for loss). Led the team with six sacks. Forced three fumbles, recovering two
Bowl Game Trends:
- Big 12/SEC has split last six
- Underdog has covered last four and six of last eight
- Both conferences are 0-2 after Tuesday’s games
Game Synopsis:
Both teams control strong, fast paced offenses. Texas Tech is the fastest tempo team, running 89.1 plays per game. Ole Miss isn’t far behind at 6th, calling 78.3. This should be a fast paced game. But Ole Miss possesses the better defense, especially via the pass. The Big 12’s defense is swiss cheese; of the seven bowl eligible teams, only Kansas State (56th) ranks inside the top-80 in FBS pass defense. I think the combination of Judkins and Evans, paired with the Rebels tempo, will be too much for the Red Raiders defense. Ole Miss takes this one outright
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Ole Miss
Bowl Mania Confidence: 19/43
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