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Week 15 TNF: 49ers vs Seahawks
Football happens to be watchable on Thursday, as the Seattle Seahawks face off against the visiting San Francisco 49ers in a divisional showdown.
Both teams head into TNF following completely opposite performances in Week 14. Brock Purdy & the 49ers stomped Tom Brady’s bay area homecoming by a score of 35-7, while Seattle lost 30-24 to the visiting Carolina Panthers. The Seahawks have lost 3 of their last 4 games, giving up over 28 PPG during that span.
The 49ers won 27-7 the last time these squads played in Week 2. This time around, the circumstances are objectively different.
QB’s Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo, along with WR Deebo Samuel, all won’t be available in the rematch due to serious injuries. SF’s original RB1, Jeff Wilson Jr., is now a Miami Dolphin, and the “newly” acquired Christian McCaffrey is questionable with a knee injury.
It’s evident that a lot of volume is up for grabs if CMC does, in fact, watch from the sidelines. Jordan Mason is the other relevant 49ers ball carrier, but he’s been a non-factor in the passing game up to this point. On the brightside, Seattle allows the most DraftKings PPG to RB’s this season at 30.8 (Pro Football Reference). Regardless of who is leading this backfield, you can’t ignore the glaring mismatch.
In the passing game, a big question lies with staples Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle: Will they eat up Deebo’s usage, or will it be evenly distributed amongst the other skill players?
CMC/Deebo own 63.6% of the team’s red zone targets since Brock Purdy took over in Week 13 (PFF). We also know that he attacks short concepts more often than Jimmy G. Over the last two weeks, just 29.3% of Purdy’s attempts were thrown 10+ yards downfield. This could potentially mesh well against Seattle, who allows 123.5 YAC/game, seventh amongst defenses (Pro Football Reference).
On the other sideline, QB Geno Smith faces arguably the league’s hottest defense. In the first matchup, Smith put up 7.1 PPR points, which remains his season-low. Is there any hope for Geno?
After crunching the numbers, I found that SF is somewhat human on late downs. They’ve allowed 0.104 EPA/play on 3rd/4th down through Week 14, which is below league-average (rbsdm.com/stats). Geno Smith is efficient on late downs, carrying a 0.187 adjusted EPA/play, top-ten among qualified QB’s (so you’re saying there’s a chance?).
Seahawks vs 49ers Slot Coverage
The 49ers allow 9.5 targets/game, second-highest in the league. They also allow 1.61 yards/coverage snap, which is third (PFF).
SF won’t have CB’s Emmanuel Moseley or Samuel Womack on TNF, both of whom played in the first matchup. Over the last two weeks, S Jimmy Ward saw 20 targets and has allowed 13 catches through the slot, most in the NFL.
WR Tyler Lockett leads all Seahawks with 41 slot targets. In Week 2, he put up over 100 yards on 11 targets, 5 of which came through the slot (PFF). Considering the veteran wideout has caught a TD in each of the last 6 games, he’s due for negative regression. On the flipside, add a pass-heavy game script with this slot matchup, and Lockett could actually be in line for some volume. Whether it be fantasy production or player props, it’s an interesting trend to keep an eye on.
I like Seattle’s recent pass-heaviness and pace (trust the process). Assuming Shanahan holds his rookie QB’s hand on a short week, the Seahawks will have opportunities to pounce.
