D’Andre Swift League Winner: Dynasty Buys and Sells

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Week 14 Dynasty Buys, Sells, & Stash

Whether you’re in the thick of a championship run, in full-blown rebuild mode, or somewhere in between, you need a gameplan for your dynasty roster. I’m here to help you navigate the tricky world of dynasty team building no matter your situation. Every week through the end of the season, I will provide buys and sells for both contenders and rebuild teams plus my stash of the week.

START/SIT ASSIST | TRADE CALCULATOR

Buy for a Contender: D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift is setting up to be a league-winner. It wasn’t looking good during the middle portion of the season as he was slowly working his way back from an ankle injury, but the Lions are ramping his role back up just in time for the fantasy playoff run. After not playing for a month (missed three games plus the bye), Swift came back to a 55% snap share in Week 8. But after that game, Dan Campbell expressed worry that the team may have pushed Swift too hard given his ongoing recovery. That resulted in his snap share cratering to 16% the following week and remaining under 35% over the next three.

But he started showing he might be back to full strength in Week 12 when he had a season-high 22% target share. Then followed that up with a 15% share on 51% of the snaps in Week 13. Those rates are eerily similar to his early-season numbers. He’s back. The increase of Swift’s usage coincided with a season-low 30% snap rate for Jamaal Williams. While Williams still got his weekly one-yard plunge, Swift received some work at the goal line as well. Remember, Swift averaged 17 fantasy points per game in the first three games before the injury. He scored 21 in Week 13.

Now he has one of the most favorable schedules the rest of the way. As Josh Larky laid out on Twitter: Swift gets the Vikings in Week 14 who have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs and the Jets, who give up the eighth-most, in round one of the playoffs. Then in Weeks 16 and 17, Swift will see the Panthers and Bears who have allowed the ninth-most and sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, respectively.

Buy for a Contender: Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown was having a great season before he injured his foot at the end of Week 6. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game through the first six weeks, including a stretch of WR3, WR11, and WR10 finishes between Weeks 3-5. Of course, that was before the return of DeAndre Hopkins. But coming off the injury and in his first game playing alongside Hopkins, Brown led the team with a 28% target share in Week 12. He played 98% of the snaps and ran a route on 97% of Kyler Murray’s drop backs which was on par with his pre-injury and pre-Hopkins role.

Brown now gets one of the most favorable schedules in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Bucs and Falcons in Weeks 16 and 17.

Buy for a Rebuild: Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is out for the season. It was an incredibly disappointing year for the ultra-talented tight end. He currently sits at TE19 with a 7.6 fantasy points per game average. I probably don’t have to say it, but that’s bad. But when we look a bit deeper, it’s obvious that Pitts is not the problem. Pitts had a Marcus Mariota/Arthur Smith problem. We all assumed that, but the numbers back it up.

While his raw box score numbers like receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns all rank outside the top 12, Pitts was dominant inside his own offense. He had a 27.3% target share which ranks second among all NFL tight ends. His targets per route (34.3%), air yards share (33%), and average target depth (13.1) all rank first. He also leads the position in deep targets and unrealized air yards, while ranking top-5 in air yards, yards per reception, and yards per team pass attempt.

These are elite numbers. Unfortunately, the team only throws the ball 23 times per game with a quarterback who ranks near the bottom of the league in just about every efficiency metric.

The point is, Pitts is an elite talent. We saw that in his rookie campaign. A quarterback change is inevitable and he’s only 22-years old. While his fantasy managers are smart enough to know he’s not the problem, there’s still a dip in his dynasty value that we can attempt to exploit.

Sell: Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders has had a productive season after being wildly disappointing in 2021. He’s already set career highs in carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns. He’s actually a decent buy for a contender needing an RB2 for the stretch run. But if you’re not contending, or even if you are and looking to upgrade elsewhere, Sanders is a top sell candidate. There’s two reasons for that: age, he’s beyond the running back age apex and will be 26 to start next season, and contract. Sanders is a pending free agent with an uncertain future. We don’t know if he’ll be back in Philadelphia next season. And if he’s not, we can’t say for sure that he’ll have the same workhorse role that he’s currently enjoying. After all, he’s never rushed for 1,000 yards and he’s not an above average pass catcher. It’s hard to say he’s going to be a locked-in RB2 for the next 2-3 seasons. For that reason, it’s time to cash out.

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Stash of the Week: Zamir White

Josh Jacobs is absolutely tearing up fantasy football right now. He’s having by far the best season of his career. However, there’s no guarantee that he’s back in Las Vegas next season. Remember, the Raiders opted not to pick up his fifth-year option, making 2022 the final year of his rookie deal. The Raiders have been a disaster in Josh McDaniels’ first year at the helm. They have plenty of other areas where they need to spend money improving in the offseason rather than giving their running back a huge deal. Instead, they could stick with their original plan and let another team write that big check and move on to the Zamir White era.

Remember, White was an impressive prospect coming out of Georgia. The former five-star recruit tested with excellent size-adjusted speed and burst at the NFL Combine. He led the Bulldogs in rushing in each of his final two seasons despite sharing a backfield with Bills rookie James Cook.

While it’s certainly possible Vegas diverts from its original plan and opt to extend Jacobs, White is well worth hanging onto in dynasty and is probably dirt cheap in trade. Your league mates are blinded by the incredible season that Jacobs is having and forget that he’s on an expiring contract. That’s where we can take advantage by scooping up his possible successor at little-to-no cost.