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Tonight, we’ve got an NFC South matchup between the visiting New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These two have displayed some chippy showdowns since QB Tom Brady first took over under center, and there will be plenty of matchups to be keen on. I’m here to provide some of those, as well as any bets that correspond to them. Let’s break it down.
Tampa Bay opened as 6.5-point favorites on 11/27, shrinking to -3.5 as of last night (PFF Greenline). This seems to be reverse line movement stemming from sharp money (most of the tickets are on the Bucs, but >70% of total cash is on New Orleans). These teams last played each other in Week 2, and the Buccaneers won 20-10. Tonight, the total is hovering around 41-41.5, as RotoCurve gives a 22.25 implied team total for TB, and 18.75 for NOLA.
Positional Value vs Fantasy
If you’re an Alvin Kamara owner in fantasy formats, you’re obviously rooting for him to see high usage, ideally within the passing game. I don’t mean to be a buzz kill, but the more he (and most RB’s) are targeted, the less efficient your team’s passing tends to be.
Under the hypothetical of Kamara being used alot in a game, we’d bump him up for fantasy purposes, but tally that as a negative for team efficiency/betting outcomes. I love watching guys like Austin Ekeler, Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard as a fan…but I try to remind myself of the inherent differences between fantasy and team productivity. Isolating for both teams’ pass catchers, I lean towards the big-play WR’s than underneath RB’s/TE’s.
WR Chris Godwin didn’t play in the first matchup, so most of the target distribution was spread out amongst other wideouts. Through Week 12, Tampa Bay targets the position at a 64% clip, sixth-highest in the league (nfelo). Despite the fact that Godwin has played just 9 games this season, he is fifth in the NFL with 63 targets against zone coverage (PFF).
I calculated metrics from every defense’s “top-three” cornerbacks (coverage snaps). Through Week 12, the Saints allowed 1.57 zone yards/covg snap, highest in the NFL. This doesn’t include Mike Evans’ best friend Marshon Lattimore, who is questionable to play. Either way, it’s an area to be aware of.
The above chart gives us a solid baseline to infer game scripts on each side. If you’re in the Buccaneers’ camp, you’re likely to be inferring that the Saints play catchup later on. But, with the spread at about a field goal on the home team’s side, along with a relatively low point total- it’s a strong possibility for the bulk of regulation to consist of neutral football.
Team Aggressiveness
TB ranks nineteenth, and NOLA is dead last here in fourth-down decision making. This matchup may very well come down to efficiently moving the chains on third-downs, and could provide extra windows for the Saints to catch up on offense.
Best of luck tonight everyone!
