Week 13 DFS Stats & Matchups
When it comes to fantasy- everyone wants high scoring. On the flipside, there can be a cost to that through game script. Big point totals + competitive games provides us with a bit more reassurance that the players in our lineups are on the field all four quarters. After analyzing from that viewpoint, I believe JAX/DET, KC/CIN, and LAC/LV are ideal environments to evaluate in Week 13.
Trevor Lawrence finished as the DK QB3 in last week’s victory against Baltimore (27.9). His upcoming opponent, the Detroit Lions, allow 26 points per contest to QB’s, most in the NFL (Pro Football Reference). The Clemson Tiger is an ideal streamer in Week 13.
Christian Kirk | $6,300 | DK WR17
Zay Jones | $4,900
Through Week 12, the Lions give up 1.62 yds/covg snap and 10.2 yds/tgt through the slot, as well as 41.5 DK PPG to receivers- all of which are second-worst in the NFL (PFF). WR Christian Kirk averages 5.7 slot targets & 46.8 yards per game (top-three in the league). If last Sunday was “Zay Jones day”, it might just be Kirk’s this time around at Ford Field, especially if Jones doesn’t play.
Austin Ekeler | $8,500 | DK RB2
Josh Jacobs | $7,900 | DK RB6
Both of these guys live up to their salaries on a weekly basis, but this Sunday, the two not only face each other, they’ve got variables on their side as well..
The Raiders allow 28.5 PPG to RB’s, fifth-highest. Further, backs record 54.5 rec yds/game against this LV defense, most in the NFL (Pro Football Reference). According to nfelo, the Chargers target running backs (Austin Ekeler) at a league-high 30% clip. This makes for quite the fantasy-floor after the announcement of teammate Mike Williams being ruled out.
On the other sideline, the Bolts give up 29.6 PPG to the position. They also allow an NFL-worst 5.6 YPA on carries. If Josh Jacobs is healthy, he dominates this backfield and is coming off an unbelievable game against Seattle. I was surprised when I saw his salary relative to other backs, considering his recent stretch and matchup vs Los Angeles’ run defense.
Of course, continue to monitor his health throughout the weekend- but there’s a reason that the Raiders have jumped to favorites in this one.
Matchup: Davante Adams vs LAC Zone Coverage
The Chargers “defense” (CB/LB/S) allow 1.05 yds/snap in zone coverage, bottom-three in the NFL. Raiders WR Davante Adams ($8,700) has a 2.84 zone YPRR this season, fourth among all qualified receivers (PFF).
Pat Freiermuth | $4,300 | DK TE6
Pittsburgh throws to TE’s at a 25% clip, top-five among offenses (nfelo). According to PFF, Freiermuth is second in target share (21.6%), and leads the Steelers with 26 first downs. He’s experienced positive upside since the Chase Claypool trade. What’s interesting is that a good amount of it has occurred through the slot..
Highest Slot TPRR (min 25 tgts):
1. Tyreek Hill – 29%
2. Pat Freiermuth – 28.7%
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 28.6%
4. Mark Andrews – 28.2%
5. Davante Adams – 26.4%
The Falcons have allowed 88 slot receptions in coverage, most in the NFL this season.
Wins x Point Differential Chart
Lastly, I wanted to leave you with this for your own personal reference. As explosive as Miami has played, they’re still 3.5-4 point underdogs against the 49ers. To me, this is implying that the betting markets value San Francisco’s defense, and/or expect some regression from the red-hot Dolphins.
Best of luck to everyone this weekend!
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
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