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This week, we’ve got an AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots, their first of two regular-season meetings (second: Week 18). At the time this is being written, the forecast in Foxborough appears to be clear of any snow/sleet/blizzards etc., which is a nice variable on our side. Buffalo stands as 5-point road favorites, with the game total hovering around 43.5-44.
If you were to ask me about a month ago, I’d tell you New England is toast in this one. I was present for MNF between the Bears/Patriots…the Bailey Zappe chants and eventual benching of Mac Jones was a total circus (starting pregame). But the Bills have come back down to earth, and the Pats were one controversial call away from defeating Minnesota on Thanksgiving. Anything can happen with short rest on TNF.
The Bills are superior at QB/overall horsepower on offense (comes with complete certainty). However, as it relates to matchups- one could argue New England is just as stable across their 53-man roster and with any glaring weaknesses as Buffalo. This especially holds true on defense.
Both are among the league’s top units, but, as we can see from this SumerSports tweet, New England has fared better than Buffalo on late downs (best defenses = bottom-left quadrant, worst = upper-right). Josh Allen/his offense are elite on late downs, so I find this to be an area that’ll determine if the Patriots hang around, or if TNF becomes a blowout.
DFS & Defensive Matchups
– RB’s are scoring just 16.4 DK PPG when facing the Patriots (lowest in NFL)
– TE’s average 13.5 PPG against the Patriots (8th in NFL)
– WR’s drop 37.5 PPG against the Bills (8th in NFL)
WR Nelson Agholor has had interesting trends over recent weeks. Among relevant wideouts (pictured), he’s third in target/route run at 18%. Agholor saw a season-high 8 targets against the Vikings and caught a touchdown. Over the last two games, he leads the Patriots with 4 red zone targets and is second overall with 11 (PFF). Given that teammates Jakobi Meyers (arm) and DeVante Parker (leg) are questionable for Thursday’s game, Agholor could be a great value in DFS lineups and player props.
TE Dawson Knox saw just 2 targets on Thanksgiving, his fewest in a game since Week 1 against the Rams. Knox hasn’t scored in four straight contests- while New England allows 0.73 TD/game to TE’s, second-most in the NFL (Pro Football Reference). Knowing Patriots HC Bill Belichick likes to isolate opposing offenses’ top pass catcher/make them use everyone else, things could be trending up for Knox and teammate Gabriel Davis. If you find an attractive anytime touchdown prop on either of the two, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to send it.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a swiss-army knife within this Patriots offense. Dating back to Week 4, he is the DraftKings RB5 at 156.2 points. Although Stevenson had single-digit carries for the first time since Week 2 on Thanksgiving, he still saw 10 targets (PFF). Not having scored a touchdown over the last two games, Rhamondre Stevenson is a guy you’ve gotta watch on TNF, as well as on a weekly basis the rest of 2022.
Slot Matchup: CB Taron Johnson
The Buffalo corner holds 55 targets and has allowed 4 touchdowns through the slot- the most by any defender in coverage this year (PFF). WR Jakobi Meyers leads New England with 35 targets & 2 touchdowns from the slot. However, as mentioned earlier, he may not play. After Meyers left early against Minnesota, Nelson Agholor went on to lead the team in slot targets (6) and yards (54) on just 20 snaps. Agholor and teammate Hunter Henry are likely to work the slot if Meyers is scratched.
Hope you enjoyed the insights. Best of luck in Week 13!
