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This week, we’ve got another Thanksgiving stuffed with three games. There’s a shot that we see some high scoring matchups and dominant stat lines across the slate, and I’m here to run it all down!
Betting Markets
Three games in three domes always carries the potential for nice fantasy production. I think that first total in Detroit is a bit inflated as this is being written, but it’s still the most promising matchup to attack.
Note: According to PFF Greenline, 64% of the ML tickets are on the Vikings in the night-game. However, 57% of the total cash is sided with New England (“sharp” money). This matchup is projected to be the closest of the three, and runs the least risk of pass catchers on either side losing volume from a blowout.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is undoubtedly in a tier of his own from an ability perspective. He also faces the Lions, who are the worst fantasy defense against quarterbacks. But, from a matchup/salary standpoint, Mac Jones offers some value here against Minnesota. Digest that as you wish.
The Lions and Vikings give up 8.1 YPA on passes this season, tied for the highest among all defenses. Minnesota is also second in completion percentage allowed at 69% (Pro Football Reference). This built-in efficiency with the Patriots’ matchup plays well alongside a run-heavier approach for Matt Patricia/Joe Judge (jk Mac Jones).
QB Dak Prescott has faced heavier zone coverage/lighter box against defenses this season compared to teammate Cooper Rush, which is no surprise. At the same time, the Giants blitz at a 41% clip, highest in the league (Pro Football Reference). When these two played in Week 3, The Giants blitzed Cooper Rush on 54.8% of his dropbacks (PFF). NY is thin in coverage this time around, so I can’t imagine them bringing the house now that Dak is back.
Running Backs
Add it to your imaginary dictionary; “Gold” opportunities play a heavy influence on fantasy production among pass catchers and ball carriers. Detroit’s Jamaal Williams leads the entire NFL with 19 (and has the most touchdowns). Over the last four weeks, the Bills and Lions are tied at 17 for the league’s most red zone trips (rbsdm.com/stats).
Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson have a high ceiling given their matchups and potential workloads if Zeke/Damien Harris aren’t factors. RB’s that aren’t just ball carriers face less dependency on game-scripts.
Pass Catchers
The foundation amongst skill players is a combination of scoring opportunities and volume. Assuming they are stable within their respective offenses, TPRR splits can give us an idea of the players gaining/losing targets as the season progresses.
Although some teams pass more overall (and efficiently) than others, target share weighs a player’s involvement amongst their team’s passing game.
– Amon-Ra St. Brown is a shoe-in with traditional formats when healthy. He’s the DraftKings WR17 despite not having scored a touchdown since Week 2. In a projected high scoring matchup that slates Detroit as a 9.5 pt underdog, St. Brown is an alternative to stack with Josh Allen if Stefon Diggs is out of your price range
– Jakobi Meyers is an awesome value play alongside teammate Rhamondre Stevenson. The Vikings allow the second-most receptions (14.4), yards (193), and fifth-most DK points (40.1) per game to receivers
– CeeDee Lamb surprisingly didn’t score in the barnburner vs Minnesota. Tony Pollard led the team in targets (6) and scored twice. From all the books I’ve looked at, his anytime TD prop is heavier than even money (likely to score on Thanksgiving)
– T.J. Hockenson is this slate’s TE1, D. Schultz/D. Knox are interchangeable values here if you need to go cheap. Hock’s taken over as Minnesota’s second weapon behind Justin Jefferson. For Knox- Detroit allows the fourth-highest DK PPG to TE’s (15.3), and they’re tied for second with New England at 0.7 TD per game to the position (Pro Football Reference)
– Darius Slayton is a quality play, and even better stacked with Saquon Barkley, Dak and/or Cowboys skill players. His volume is set to jump following WanDale Robinson’s potential season ending injury. Robinson led the NFL in targets, catches, and first downs over the last two weeks from the slot. In week 11, Slayton saw 20 slot snaps, his most ever in a game (PFF)
