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It’s been quite the experience watching rookies Isaiah Likely and Greg Dulcich pop off over the recent weeks, and I know I’m one of many saying that.
A big reason is due to the top heaviness amongst their position group. Of course, it would be sweet if both sustain their current levels of production and add to a middling TE fantasy position. But, like many instances with young Tight Ends in the past, it’s too easy to get your hopes up and inevitably be disappointed.
So, what, if any, aspects of their game are sustainable?
Both rookies are of similar physical stature, and mirror averages in usage/production through the first eight weeks of the season. However, we can tell the first differences with the average depth of target.
Very little production from Greg Dulcich’s has occurred against man coverage. His usage deep down the field also exceeds that of Isaiah Likely. Over 85% of the Bronco’s total yards came while facing zone coverage, and 42.3% are from just two catches 20+ yards downfield (PFF).
In contrast, Likely has proven to be a more reliable route runner through areas like the slot, and directly against man coverage defenders. Isaiah Likely is tied-fourth among all TE’s with nine receptions vs man (PFF).
GREG DULCICH
Dulcich made his NFL debut in week six, so total production has been condensed. Still, he is third in yards among TE’s over that time (182). From weeks 1-5, TE’s had a 16.1% target share in Denver’s offense (PFF). The position was composed of three guys; Eric Saubert, Albert Okwuegbunam, & Eric Tomlinson. However, Dulcich is the only relevant member from that room dating back to his first game. Over the last three weeks, he is second on the Broncos in target share at 18.7%, behind only WR Jerry Jeudy (27.5%).
More Data:
The unfortunate part in all of this for Dulcich is that he/Jeudy compete directly for slot production. According to PFF, they’ve accounted for 23/28 (82.1%) of the team’s slot targets over their last three games. Another point is that Dulcich (13.3 aDOT), hasn’t diverged from Jeudy (12.7) or Courtland Sutton (13.2). Sure, his sample is relatively small. But having to compete with the primary wideouts in every length of the field could cap the rookie’s ceiling, leaving his fate in the hands of Denver’s QB/HC and their game plan/preferences (not exactly Batman/Robin this year). On the flipside- given their positional differences, Jeudy/Sutton go against man coverage at a higher clip- opposed to Dulcich’s 70.6% zone target rate (and subsequent success against it), so there are instances where Dulcich could be “the guy” going forward.
ISAIAH LIKELY
Unlike Dulcich, Isaiah Likely experienced far more of a gradual uptick in both usage and opportunities. He’s appeared in every game for the Ravens thus far in 2022. If you want to pinpoint when he became a staple piece, however, I’d argue that began week six, as most of his targets (12), catches (9), and yards (123) occurred during this period.
Mark Andrews’ injury on MNF obviously played a part in the welcoming party of Isaiah Likely. Nonetheless, just like Likely, Andrews has appeared in every game this year, so the rookie TE is surely used to splitting time with #88.
Both rookies have fantastic opportunities ahead of them. This piece is based on a small sample with numerous external factors influencing some of my takeaways, so we’ll see how things deviate or solidify over time. I’m excited for what the rest of the 2022 season has in store for them, and you should be too!
