Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100!
As great as the Week 8 slate was, the Week 9 college football weekend was brutal. On cloud nine from a 5-0-2 weekend, only to come crashing down with a 1-5 weekend last weekend. But, now it’s time to get on track with a great Week 10 college football weekend. A matchup between a top-2 teams in the AP Poll in Tennessee and Georgia. Two other ranked matchups with Alabama/LSU and Wake Forest/North Carolina State. We have a great weekend ahead; here are my favorite picks on the card.
HEAD ON OVER TO BETUS AND USE PROMO CODE YARDSPER FOR A 125% DEPOSIT BONUS. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER. Bets were made between Monday 10/31 and Thursday 11/3
Week 9: 1-5 (-4.4 units)
YTD: 36-40-2 (-7.72 units)
Duke (5-3) vs. Boston College (2-6) (Duke -9.5; O/U 47.5)
Duke -9.5 (-110)
Under 47.5 (-110)
These two schools have only faced off five times in school history. The away team has covered in each game, and the under has cashed in each game as well. In fact, the game total has not cleared 40 points in any of the five contests.
Forget that trend: Boston College has been a massive disappointment. They are coming off a loss at UCONN where they squandered just three points. Boston College ranks 122nd nationally in scoring (17.3 PPG), bottom-five among Power Five programs. After Week 9, Boston College ranks 122nd in turnover margin (-8). Duke? 2nd nationally (+14), only trailing the USC Trojans.
The offense will run have to run through Zay Flowers in the passing game; he had five receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown against Duke in 2020. But if Jurkovec has turnover woes and can’t get Flowers involved, don’t expect much offense from BC; through eight games, no other player has over 20 receptions, and the Golden Eagles are last nationally in the run game. Duke can become bowl eligible in Mike Elko’s first season at the school. Sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard has been difficult to contain; he’s rushed for 280 yards and six touchdowns in his last four games. I’m expecting Duke to become bowl eligible this Friday night. It’s Duke and the under for me to kick off the Week 10 college football card.
Air Force (5-3) vs. Army (3-4) (Air Force -7; O/U 40)
Under 40 (-110) – 2 units
Death, taxes, the under in military academy matchups. In the last 52 matchups between military academies (Army, Navy, Air Force), the under is 42-9-1. These are the top two rushing offenses nationally; Air Force has attempted 60 passes in eight games compared to 475 rush attempts. Army has attempted 63 passes compared to 389 rushing attempts. These are mirror images of each other, and they know how to contain each offense. Take the under in this service academy matchup.
#2 Ohio State (8-0) vs. Northwestern (1-7) (Ohio State -38.5; O/U 62.5)
Ohio State -38.5 (-110)
We hit on this with Ohio State in Week 8. Teams favored by four or more touchdowns are 23-9-2 ATS. Ohio State boasts a top-10 defense (16.9 PPG allowed), up from 26th nationally a season ago. Over their last four conference matchups, Northwestern has averaged just 12.8 points per contest. A week ago, Northwestern surrendered 33 points to Iowa. That’s 25% of the Hawkeyes’ season total points in one game. Now they welcome a Heisman frontrunner in C.J. Stroud and a top-2 offense nationally. It should be a cakewalk for the Buckeyes until Thanksgiving week, where we hopefully get a matchup of two unbeaten teams when OSU takes on Michigan. Ohio State handles Northwestern in Week 10.
Texas Tech (4-4) vs. #7 TCU (8-0) (TCU -9.5; O/U 69)
Over 69 (-110)
I get this is a massive number. But TCU is one of the best stories in college football to date, in large part of their offense. They have arguably the nation’s top offensive trio with Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, and Quinton Johnston, and have scored at least 38 points in each of their five Big 12 matchups. And their defense has allowed four or more touchdowns in five of their last six games. There is no time to let off the gas as they head to Texas next week. Expect fireworks in the Big 12 for this Week 10 college football matchup.
#8 Oregon (7-1) vs. Colorado (1-7) (Oregon -31.5; O/U 63.5)
Oregon -31.5 (-115)
This falls under the same train of thought as Ohio State above. Large favorites have hit this year in college football. The transfer from Auburn to Oregon has done wonders for Bo Nix; he currently sits as a top-5 Heisman candidate. Nix ranks top-10 in completion percentage (72.3%) and QBR (169.7), leading Oregon to a top-5 offense nationally.
Colorado’s offense ranks 125th nationally in scoring (16.3 PPG), the second worse mark among Power Five schools. Colorado ranks 129th in yards allowed (483.8 YPG) and defensive scoring (39.1 PPG). Colorado has played against three now-ranked teams, failing to cover each time. They haven’t been able to hang with the top of the class, and I’m not expecting that to start in Week 10. The Ducks are the play.
West Virginia (3-5) vs. Iowa State (3-5) (Iowa State -7; O/U 50)
West Virginia +7 (-105)
A matchup between bottom of the Big 12 barrel teams, seeing a combined 1-9 conference record between the Mountaineers and Cyclones. Iowa State’s 6th-best scoring defense (16.6 PPG) is misconceiving; surrendering a combined 27 points to out-of-conference SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio skew the numbers in favor of the Cyclones. Tight End CJ Donaldson has become a reliable option in the ground game, rushing 31 times for 137 yards since returning in Week 8. West Virginia keeps this one close with a chance to upset Iowa State in Ames.
#2 Tennessee (8-0) vs. #1 Georgia (8-0) (Georgia -8; O/U 66)
Tennessee +8 (-110)
Game of the year potential. Similar to a few weeks ago when Tennessee hosted then #1 Alabama. That game lived up to the hype, and once again, Tennessee finds themselves as an underdog to the top team in the AP Poll.
Georgia will be without senior linebacker Nolan Smith (torn pec) for the remainder of the season. Smith leads the team with three sacks. For the Vols, they will see the return of receiver Cedric Tillman to go alongside Jaylin Hyatt. Tennessee’s defense has improved, holding #19 Kentucky to six points a week ago and then #25 LSU to just 13 points in Baton Rouge. Tennessee has a chance to win this outright, but I don’t see it being more than a one-possession game. I’m with the Volunteers in the Week 10 college football game of the week.
BYU (4-5) vs. Boise State (6-2) (Boise State -8; O.U 54)
Boise State -8 (-110)
BYU had so much promise to start the season. Winning their home opener against then #9 Baylor in double overtime. Starting the year 4-1 heading to Las Vegas to take on Notre Dame. But the Cougars heading to Sin City was a turning point in the season. The Cougars have lost four straight, failing to cover any. They are 1-3 ATS and SU away from Provo, with the sole cover and win coming in Week 1 over South Florida. Boise State has covered their last three on the blue turf and winners of four straight. Freshman quarterback Taylen Green returned against San Diego State at the end of September. This started the winning streak for Boise State, and I believe they keep it going against what appears to be a depleted BYU team. Take the Broncos.
Florida State (5-3) vs. Miami (4-4) (Florida State -8; O/U 53)
Florida State -8 (-110)
Miami is tied with Boston College for the worst ATS mark in the country (1-7 ATS). Miami was supposed to be led by a potential first-round quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke; instead, they averaged under 20-points per game over the last month. That schedule? North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, Duke, and at Virginia in four overtimes. Florida State’s three losses have come against ranked teams, playing both Clemson and North Carolina State close.
Florida State has a top-15 pass defense, and Tyler Van Dyke is questionable with an upper body injury. Miami may have to rely on the ground game. I’m not trusting the Hurricanes’ offense to pick it up this week after struggling the last month. Seminoles win this Week 10 college football rivalry matchup.
Auburn (3-5) vs. Mississippi State (5-3) (Mississippi State -12.5; O/U 51)
Over 51 (-110)
Mississippi State -12.5 (-110)
If only Mike Leach, Will Rogers and company could play every game in Starkville. Mississippi State has averaged 44 points in home games, scoring at least 40 in each contest. Auburn fired Bryan Harsin after last week’s loss to Arkansas. Auburn struggled in his first two years, especially as of late: Auburn had allowed over 40 points in each of their last three SEC games. Now, the Tigers bring in running backs coach Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, a former first-round pick selected by Tampa Bay in the 2005 NFL Draft.
This isn’t the only change around Auburn athletics that could play a factor in this game. No players involved, but Auburn just hired a new athletic director: John Cohen. Cohen came over from…you guessed it…Mississippi State. This is a personal game for Mississippi State, and I expect this high-powered offense to run it up as much as possible against Auburn. Fireworks in Starkville this weekend.
Have a favorite play I should add? Let me know on Twitter! Follow @DrewRoberts_ for more football content!
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
