Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100
What’s happening everyone! It’s been a minute, but I’m excited to be back providing a touch of data and value matchups for Week 8. A little goes a long way in crafting daily fantasy lineups. Matchups, game scripts, and Las Vegas all give us hints of what is to come, so it’s best we use their tells to our advantage.
Raiders Defense vs Saints
LVR @ NO (+1.5)
Alvin Kamara | $7,100 | DraftKings RB10
Andy Dalton | $5,500 | DraftKings QB18
Here we’ve got one of those situations where the box score doesn’t do reality any justice.
Andy Dalton had three interceptions in the Saints’ loss to Arizona last Thursday. If you watched any of that game, his two pick-sixes in 64 seconds going into the half were as fluky as they come.
Since taking over for Jameis in week four, Dalton has the league’s third-best PFF passing grade, behind only Patrick Mahomes (85.3) and Josh Allen (90.8).
At 34.3%, the Saints have the NFL’s lowest early-down pass rate dating back to Dalton’s debut. He’s been the quintessential “game manager”, and other than a handful of drives last week, Dalton has made the most of his opportunity.
On Sunday, Dalton is set to face a Raiders defense allowing 25 DraftKings PPG to QB’s (most in NFL). WR’s Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out again this week, which is synonymous with “start Alvin Kamara.”
Kamara leads all Saints with 23 targets over the team’s last three games. Las Vegas has allowed 9.2 targets per game to RB’s, second-most this year among defenses (via Pro Football Reference). Dalton and Kamara are a fantastic value stack this week if you’re not looking to spend big.
Robert Tonyan vs Bills
GB (+10.5) @ BUF
$4,000 | DraftKings TE9
Robert Tonyan has 16 targets over the last two games. Since week five, Tonyan (20) is second on the Packers in targets behind *drumroll* Allen Lazard (23).
Buffalo has allowed 8 targets/game to TE’s this season, tied for fifth-most in the NFL (Pro Football Reference). With fewer mouths for Rodgers to feed, along with Tonyan already receiving an increased workload in recent weeks, Tonyan is a logical play on SNF.
Falcons Secondary vs Panthers
CAR (+4) @ ATL
D.J. Moore | $5,300 | DraftKings WR35
I won’t be the first (or the last) person to tell you that Carolina is quite the dumpster fire. The Atlanta Falcons’ secondary, however, has recently been a mess themselves. Game of the week if you’re asking me!
QB Baker Mayfield is back from injury, but appears to be QB2 behind P.J. Walker. D.J. Moore might honestly be happier than Walker, as the WR notched a season-high in targets (10), receptions (7), and receiving yards (69) last week against Tampa Bay. With Robby Anderson and CMC out of town, it would be sorcery if Moore didn’t get first dibs on volume. To carry it home, the Falcons’ defense has allowed:
– 48.3 DraftKings PPG to WR’s (most in NFL)
– 24 targets & over 16 receptions per game to WR’s (most in NFL)
– 11 touchdowns to WR’s (most in NFL)
– 207.9 receiving yards/game to WR’s (second-most)
CB’s A.J. Terrell and Cam Hayward Jr. are both out for this one, emphasizing that this Atlanta secondary is still incredibly vulnerable to WR matchups.
The Falcons also have the league’s second-lowest PFF pass rush grade (58.5), and P.J. Walker’s been incredible from a clean pocket. Take a look at a few numbers compared to Baker:
The stars are finally aligning for D.J. Moore to be a volume god in both traditional/daily fantasy lineups. One could argue that it already began last week against the Buccaneers. Either way, it’s difficult to pass him up at this price.
