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As usual, I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
Running backs actually did something last week! There were some crazy performances, injuries, and pain-inducing scores (*cough* Taysom Hill *cough*) that we need to sort through. Bye weeks are all the sudden upon us in week 6 so it’ll be a shallow pool of players to pick from. I’ll be lowering the point threshold for the trusts to compensate.
Week 5 Results
- Even though Wentz was able to Wentz it up at the end, he still provided a great stat line for fantasy managers. He should continue to be a streamer when he plays poor defenses but his real-life output and the remarks from Ron Rivera have put into question his future. There is a decent chance, if Wentz and Washington continue to struggle, that we could see Sam Howell. The Commanders know what they have in Taylor Heinicke so they may give the reigns to Howell to see if they have a quarterback of the future.
- It’s tough being an A.J. Dillon owner right now. He’s not getting any passing game usage on a good-not-great offense and Aaron Jones has looked much more explosive. Jones received the only goal-line carry and had a 73 percent opportunity share compared to Dillon’s 27 percent. He’s more of a low-end flex at this point but can be used with byes coming up.
- This one hurt as Nyheim Hines was looking to have a sizeable role with the Colts only to get concussed on their first drive. I marked it as a loss because fantasy managers who started him only received 1.8 points, but it seemed like he was in for a big day. With the new concussion protocol Hines may be out at least one week and Jonathan Taylor should be back by then. It would be tough to trust Hines even as a bye week fill-in with Taylor in the fold.
- Any pass catcher on this Titans team will be tough to use on a week-to-week basis with the amount of volume to go around. I thought the game script against the Commanders would be more pass-heavy but the Titans had just 31 dropbacks. Robert Woods was able to command a 35 percent target share but that only equates to eight targets. Woods can also be seen as a risky bye week fill-in.
- This was supposed to be the game for Terry McLaurin. He had the perfect set-up against a defense that can’t cover wideouts and Jahan Dotson out with an injury. Washington is, surprisingly, 7th among NFL teams in pass rate over expected at 1.7 percent, so this game script was the perfect storm. And then Dyami Brown scores a 75-yard touchdown. And then Dyami Brown scores a 30-yard touchdown. We keep hyping up McLaurin to be this hyper-talented wideout but maybe he is what he is. A low-end WR2 that can have some very random boom weeks.
- Knox was ruled out after I submitted this article last week so I didn’t count him as a win or loss. Fantasy managers should’ve been able to pivot off him. He’s been nicked up seemingly every week this year, but hopefully the time off will have him healthy enough to be the every-down tight end.
- Kyler Murray was able to do more than I thought he would against this great defense. This pick would’ve counted as a loss had Eno Benjamin not sniped a redzone touchdown in the second half. He’s still not scrambling enough to be in the top-tier of quarterbacks but has some juicy matchups coming up with Seattle in week 6 to start. He should hit his stride and has Deandre Hopkins coming back in week 7.
- James Conner left in the 3rd quarter after a rib injury but Eno Benjamin continues to look like the better back in Arizona. He ranks 7th in PFF rushing grade compared to Conner all the way down at 27th along with being 4th in their elusiveness rating. This is beginning to look like the Chase Edmonds-Conner split we saw in 2021. Benjamin should be picked up in all leagues whether or not Conner misses time.
- I know it was the 4th quarter in a blowout but Jaylen Warren actually outsnapped Najee Harris, had more targets, ran more routes, and compiled more yards from scrimmage. Harris can now be seen as a touchdown-dependent running back on a bad offense. He’s no longer a bell-cow with Jaylen Warren being fed more and more every week. If someone in your league thinks he’s still close to what he was in 2021 I would be selling before they see Tampa Bay in week 6.
- Diontae Johnson was able to draw 12 targets in this one but only turned that into five catches for 60 yards. It could’ve been a bigger day with two catches in the redzone that he couldn’t stay inbounds but George Pickens was, again, able to outproduce him with four less targets. Pickett to Pickens seems to be a thing and Chase Claypool even joined the party with nine targets. Johnson is trending down as this offense looks like a jumbled mess. Oh, and they face Tampa Bay in week 6. The positive is Kenny Pickett looked poised and was able to go through reads much better than Trubisky.
- Apparently it’s Geno Smith’s world and we’re all just barely surviving because we still don’t trust him enough to start him in every league. Geno now ranks first in PFF passing grade, beating second-place Patrick Mahomes by 5.7 points! This isn’t a fluke and D.K. Metcalf should be considered a borderline WR1. Metcalf now has his highest yards per route run since entering the NFL at 2.3. Seattle will continue to have to air it out with their defense just handing out points to the other team.
- T.J. Hockenson came back down to earth in this one…. maybe a bit too close to earth with one catch for six yards. The Patriots are pretty stout against tight ends but this was hard to swallow. Detroit was kind of a fluky offense in the first four weeks of the season as Goff isn’t a top-ten quarterback and Jamaal Williams is a backup for a reason. It won’t be this bad every week but we can think of this offense going forward as average to above average only because of volume. Hockenson will slot back into his mid-TE1 ranking after their bye week with Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy.
Week 4 Record: 6-5
Season Record: 31-28
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 6
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score over 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Justin Fields (Week 6 Forecast: 210 Passing Yards, 70 Rushing Yards, 2 Touchdowns)
This is a bit of a scary pick with how Chicago’s offense has looked throughout the year but Fields has slowly gained momentum as he picks up this new offense. He was quietly QB13 last week and he could’ve had a much bigger day if his huge run for a score wasn’t called back because of a penalty. His PFF offensive grade (encompasses passing, running, and turnovers) has gone up every week since week 2. He now gets a Minnesota defense that is bottom five in PFF’s coverage grade and this should be a competitive game. This may finally be the game Fields eclipses 22 pass attempts.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score over 13 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: Brian Robinson (Week 6 Forecast: 70 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I don’t feel all too enthusiastic about this pick but Brian Robinson’s usage was decent in his first game back. He had a 36 percent opportunity share compared to Antonio Gibson’s 28 percent and he should be the goal-line back when they have those chances. Washington has a huge advantage in the trenches with a 19 percent run blocking advantage, the 5th best on the slate. The game shouldn’t get out of hand so Washington will be able to run the ball more than they have been. Robinson’s stock will only go up from here.
RB: Mike Boone (Week 6 Forecast: 60 Rushing Yards, 5 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Who knew Mike Boone had this much juice?! PlayerProfiler apparently did, with a 4.49 40 yard dash and a 100th percentile burst score. There’s a chance Boone can supplant Melvin Gordon as the lead guy in this backfield with another Gordon fumble, but we’ll take his current usage for now. He had a 41 percent snap share in week 5 and 10 opportunities for 85 total yards. Russell Wilson seems to be compromised, whether it be his shoulder or him generally being bad, so the Broncos will lean on the run and short passing game against the Chargers. Los Angeles has been putrid against the run and almost as bad in coverage, ranking 28th and 24th respectively.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score over 13 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Rondale Moore (Week 6 Forecast: 7 Receptions, 75 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
The Dortch is no more with Rondale Moore taking over full-time slot duties in week 5. He was able to produce with seven catches for 68 yards against a tough Philly defense. They were very short passes as he only saw an average depth of target of 2.3 yards, but Moore and his 4.37 speed can turn that into much more. He gets one more week without target hog Deandre Hopkins and a gift of a defense in the Seahawks. Seattle is where all your fantasy hopes and dreams live as they have an offense that can score points and a defense that can give many of them. They rank 31st in PFF coverage grade so Rondale should be able to feast on underneath targets.
WR: Isaiah McKenzie (Week 6 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 80 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
It looks like Isaiah McKenzie should be able to suit up on Sunday as of this writing but you should check out the injury report as the week goes on. This is going to be a hell of a shootout as the over/under is 54 points. The only worry with McKenzie the first few weeks was Jamison Crowder stealing snaps, but with his injury McKenzie should be in the clear for a 70+ percent snap share. Kansas City allows the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers and Buffalo has an absurd 13.9 percent pass rate over expected this year. Start all of your Buffalo receivers in this one.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Noah Fant (Week 6 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 45 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I know this isn’t a sexy name but tight end is an ugly position these days. Fant has slowly been taking over this tight end room with a 60 percent routes run per dropback in week 5. He was able to turn that into a 21 percent target share and that is elite at this position. Arizona ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to the tight end position and 12th against wide receivers. Geno, the first-ranked QB in PFF passing grade, should be able to spread the love this game.
Fantasy Busts: Week 6
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score under 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Justin Herbert (Week 6 Forecast: 250 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 1 Interception)
This offense has been good-not-great lately as they deal with impactful injuries like Keenan Allen and Rashawn Slater. They’re pass-blocking has been awful the last few games as Herbert was held below 15 points against the Jaguars and Browns. The Broncos are a much better defense than either of those with a ferocious pass rush. This could be an ugly game akin to the Thursday night blunder in week 5. I know you’re not sitting Herbert but I would lower expectations until he gets some key pieces back.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: Joe Mixon (Week 6 Forecast: 50 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 15 Receiving Yards)
Mixon has received a more fantasy-friendly workload than any back in the NFL with a 21.8 expected points per game. He’s pooped his big boy pants this year to the tune of 13.8 actual points per game and 3.5 yards per carry. He’s starting to lose some passing down work to Samaje Perine and this offensive line doesn’t seem like it’s getting much better. Joe Burrow and company seem to be a victim of hard regression this year. The Saints aren’t the defense they once were, but they’re run defense is near elite. He’s probably in your lineup with bye weeks hitting and his workload too much to ignore, but I would be selling in a hurry to someone who still believes in him.
RB: Najee Harris (Week 6 Forecast: 45 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
Najee is a mainstay in this article because he looks bad, the offense looks bad, and everything looks bad and there’s a fire. As stated before, Jaylen Warren continues to eat into his touches and looks like the more explosive back. Tampa Bay isn’t as feared in the run game as years past but they’re a great tackling unit that won’t allow big plays. Not that Najee was getting any anyway.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 6 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Ceedee Lamb (Week 6 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards)
I believe this is the game the Cooper Rush experience finally comes to a close as the Cowboys score 10 points and get beat by the Eagles. Ceedee has done his part in a rush-first offense with a 32.1 percent target share but it’s not a big enough pie when you throw the ball 16 times. Ceedee should see plenty of Darius ‘Big Play’ Slay in this one and the Cowboys will have a hard time moving the ball against an elite defense.
WR: Mike Williams (Week 6 Forecast: 3 Receptions, 30 Receiving Yards)
Mike Williams has lived up to his name as a boom-bust wide receiver with three huge weeks and two duds. As mentioned under Justin Herbert, this game should be a slog and Mike Williams will see perhaps the best corner in the NFL in Patrick Surtain II. Surtain has allowed 143 scoreless yards this year so I expect Herbert to avoid him as much as he can.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: Dallas Goedert (Week 6 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 30 Receiving Yards)
Goedert has been very consistent for fantasy managers this year but the Eagles have played five bottom-half defenses this year. You could make the case that Dallas is the best defense in the NFL. I don’t expect the pass volume to be high in this game as the way to attack the Cowboys is on the ground. They rank 25th in PFF run defense grade and 4th in PFF coverage grade. They allow the 11th least points to tight ends. I expect one of the big three receivers of Brown, Smith, and Goedert to get left out every week because the Eagles don’t pass all that much. This week it’s shaping up to be Goedert.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
